Evaluating Prop Swap Decisions in Sports Betting
Should You Take the Money or Let It Ride?
Decisions, decisions. You make them in life every day and stand by them. The same is true in sports betting …. Unless you have made a futures prop wager and have a chance for short-term gain against a long-run loss. In this scenario, Sports Betting Choices become crucial.
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Case in point is the Prop Swap decision made by a person who made a $50 wager on a four-leg bet that could pay $138K plus if it hits. The bets were for:
- Aaron Judge AL MVP
- Shohei Ohtani NL MVP
- Tarik Skubal AL Cy Young
- Paul Skenes NL Cy Young
MAJOR SALE 🚨 this $50 4-leg MLB Awards parlay just SOLD on PropSwap for $8,000!
🔘 Aaron Judge AL MVP
🔘 Shohei Ohtani NL MVP
🔘 Tarik Skubal AL Cy Young
🔘 Paul Skenes NL Cy YoungIf the ticket wins it will payout $138,375 💰
Those are adjusted odds of +1215 for the buyer -… pic.twitter.com/tAPUW8VsX4
— PropSwap (@PropSwap) August 7, 2024
Rather than roll the baseball against the odds, the player decided to take an $8,000 payoff from Prop Swap.
Good decision or not? How do they stack up now?
Aaron Judge is the odds-on favorite to win the AL MVP award. The Yankees slugger is having a tremendous season and has opened up distance on the field.
The same can be said about Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. The lefty DH is an even bigger chalk than Judge. He has opened a huge advantage in the odds department over Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Pitching Picture
Skubal is odds-on, too. The Detroit Tigers lefty is 13-4 with a 2.57 ERA. He has 162 strikeouts in 136 innings. His nearest competition is Corbin Burnes of the Orioles. Burnes is also 12-4 with a 2.63 ERA. He has 30 fewer strikeouts than Skubal.
The Orioles are a first-place team in the AL East. The Tigers are next to last in the AL Central. Should Detroit nosedive, there could be risk on Skrubal finishing his season as the best pitcher in the AL.
In the National League, a wild card is the pitcher the bettor wagered on Paul Skenes came up to the Pittsburgh Pirates during the season. He is 6-1 with a 1.99 ERA in a dazzling rookie season. Skenes has 107 Ks in 86 innings. Stunning numbers.
He currently is behind Braves lefty Chris Sale and ahead of Phillies righty Zach Wheeler when it comes to Cy Young odds at most sportsbooks. He is 13-3 with a 2.75 ERA and 165 strikeouts. On the Phillies’ staff, Wheeler is 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 148 strikeouts.
Good Decision To Take Money or …
The prudent decision was what the bettor did to use Prop Swap and take the $8,000. While the MVP races seem sewn up, the Cy Youngs in each league are still up for grabs. There is not enough clearance from the competition by Skenes or Skrubal to let it play out.
Then again, the wager was a risk to begin with and if you felt strongly about it and were in a position to sit, sweat, fret and wait, why not, right? Sports Betting Choices can be complex and require weighing potential outcomes and risks. Ultimately, your Sports Betting Choices should align with your comfort level and betting strategy.
