Arbitrage Betting Guide

In sports betting, bookmakers have their own tools to ensure that bettors won’t be able to bet both sides of the same wager and still walk away with a profit. But there is one way to actually game the system and secure sure bets: arbitrage betting.

But what exactly is arbitrage betting, and how can you use it effectively? While it isn’t applicable to every single bet, you will soon find that there are plenty of arbitrage opportunities available.

Let’s learn more about sports betting arbitrage, including how to find arbitrage opportunities and how to calculate arbitrage bets.

Sports Betting Arbitrage Explained

It goes without saying, but bookmakers don’t like losing money. Operators try their best to protect themselves against all possible outcomes, trying to limit the profit margin for bettors. Sportsbooks rarely disagree on the favorite and the underdog. As a result, bettors will rarely find a huge discrepancy in the odds between different bookmakers.

That being said, there are some small variations in the odds from one sportsbook to another. And this is exactly where punters can find arbitrage opportunities.

What exactly is arbitrage betting? This practice consists of placing concurrent bets in different sportsbooks. Does it sound counterintuitive? The secret to arbitrage betting is that, by covering the two possible outcomes, you can secure a sure bet and therefore a guaranteed profit.

Of course, arbitrage betting opportunities won’t be available for every single bet. As a general rule, arbitrage betting is restricted to games with relatively close lines. Additionally, you are better off sticking to games with only two possible outcomes (side A winning or side B winning), as it keeps things simple. While there are arbitrage betting opportunities available for three-way markets, these are a bit more complicated, so let’s stick to two-way sure bets for now.

How to calculate an arbitrage bet?

First Step

We need to calculate the odds for each outcome of a bet: P = 1odds, in which P stands for the probability of an outcome.

In order to calculate it, you need to convert the odds to decimals using a betting calculator. Let’s use an example: sportsbook X has team A at -125. By converting -125 to decimals, we get 1.8.

Using the probability formula above, sportsbook X gives team A a 0.556 (55.6%) chance of winning the game. Sportsbook Y has team B at +130, which is 2.3 in decimals. Team B, according to this second bookmaker, has a 0.435 (43.5%) chance of winning.

Second Step

The next step is to identify whether or not there is an arbitrage opportunity here. For that, we need to use the arbitrage formula: A = Odds Team A + Odds Team B.

Third Step

Now, we move on to step 3 – how much you need to wager on each outcome in order to make a profit: S = Total Bet x OddsP, in which S stands for stake (how much you need to bet on each outcome) and total bet indicates how much you want to wager.

We are going to keep it simple and wager $100 in total. Using this formula for team A, we get S = 55.6/0.991 = 56.105. We are wagering $56.10 on team A.

Now, let’s do the same for team B: S = 43.5/0.991 = 43.895. We need to wager $43.90 on team B in order to secure a sure bet.

In this case, if team A wins, we get $100.98 back, having bet $56.10. If team B wins, we win $100.98 as well, having bet $43.90. No matter the outcome, we are going to win the exact same amount, effectively giving us a $100.98 return for a $100 investment – a $0.98 profit.

Arbitrage Betting Tips

Also learn about Point Spreads Betting Tips and Tricks

Arbitrage Betting Examples

+ In a tennis match, sportsbook A offers a -105 moneyline on player X. Sportsbook B offers a +110 moneyline on player Y. Since A = 0.989, we have an arb opportunity here. By placing a $51.85 bet on player X and a $48.15 bet on player Y, we secure a $101.11 win for a $1.11 profit.

+ Sportsbook C offers a -145 moneyline on team X, while sportsbook D offers a +150 moneyline on team Y. In this example, A = 0.992, meaning there is an opportunity for arbitrage. With a $59.67 wager on team X and $40.33 on team Y, we are guaranteed to win back $100.84 one way or the other, giving us $0.84 in profit.

+ Sportsbook E has team 1 at -115, while sportsbook F has team 2 at +120. The arbitrage betting formula tells us that A = 0.99. We are wagering $54.05 on team 1, and $45.95 on team 2. No matter who wins, we are still getting a $101.08 payout for a $1.08 profit.

Pros vs Cons of Arbitrage Betting

🔷 Pros:

🔹 Arbitrage betting means that you have a guaranteed payout no matter the outcome of a match. Since sports betting, from the punter’s perspective, is all about finding upside, arbitrage betting is one of the easiest ways to do so.

🔹 Whether you rely on an arbitrage betting software or not, you will be able to find plenty of arbitrage opportunities. It’s all about knowing where to look for them.

🔶 Cons:

🔸 As we mentioned before, some operators do not accept arbitrage betting. If the bookmaker finds out that you are arbing and considers it a breach of the T&Cs, then it can suspend or outright cancel your account.

🔸 Since you will be comparing different bookmakers, it means that you will also need multiple sports betting accounts. In other words, you will have to fund each of them, making arbitrage a bit more expensive. As you saw in the examples, the profit margin is usually very slim, and you will need some patience to build up a sizable bankroll.

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