Bundesliga Matchday 26 Odds, Preview
Der Klassiker Takes Center Stage
Tuchel Replaces Nagelsmann at Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich sent shockwaves through the footballing world by firing coach Julian Nagelsmann and immediately replacing him with Thomas Tuchel. Tuchel won the Champions League with Chelsea in 2021 and was a former manager at Mainz, Borussia Dortmund and PSG. Tuchel will get thrown right into the fire by taking on his former club Dortmund in his first game at Bayern. With Bayern one point behind leaders Dortmund, this is potentially the biggest match of the season. We’ll take a look at the upcoming edition of Der Klassiker and other matches as we review the Bundesliga Matchday 26 odds.
Match of the Week:
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
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More drama was added to one of the closest title races in recent memory as Bayern Munich brought in Thomas Tuchel. The final straw for Julian Nagelsmann was a 2-1 loss to Bayer Leverkusen that saw Bayern drop below Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga standings.
One of the biggest matches of the season for Bayern is now Tuchel’s first as Bayern take on rivals Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. Tuchel has Sadio Mane back from injury but his form has been incredibly concerning since he returned. Perhaps he just needs time to regain his fitness level but he appears to have lost speed and explosiveness.
With Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting recovering from a back injury, Mane may need to play a key role here. In any case, Bayern’s leading scorer this season is Jamal Musiala, with 11 Bundesliga goals. Edin Terzic’s Dortmund have been excellent recently and are unbeaten in the Bundesliga in 2023. They defeated Koln 6-1 just before the international break but head into their match at Bayern as underdogs.
The Bavarians are one-goal home favorites and managed a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at the Signal Iduna Park. Bayern come in at -130 odds to cover and are also -190 moneyline favorites. Dortmund last won a Bundesliga match at the Allianz Stadium in 2014 and Bayern have won their last eight home Klassikers since then.
Even a draw, which shows +420 odds, would do wonders for Dortmund’s title chances. Dortmund could get Julian Brandt, Karim Adeyemi and Youssoufa Moukoko back from injury in time for this one but are still +390 moneyline underdogs. Dortmund +1 also sits at +110 odds.
Der Klassiker is usually an incredibly exciting match with a bunch of goals. The last five Bundesliga matchups have all finished with four goals or more. Here, over 3.5 goals display -115 odds. If Tuchel’s Bayern manage to get a home win, they’ll certainly be expected to go on and take home their 11th straight Bundesliga title.
Other Important Matches:
Union Berlin vs Stuttgart
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Union Berlin continue their bid for their first-ever Champions League appearance on Saturday as they take on Stuttgart. While Union are thinking top-four, Stuttgart are just hoping to avoid relegation. Stuttgart enter the weekend in last place in the Bundesliga but could jump as high as 15th place with a win here.
Union broke a four-game winless run in the league with a 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt just before the international break. Meanwhile, Stuttgart enter this match with three losses in their last four games.
Entering Saturday’s match, Union show even ATS and moneyline odds. They managed to defeat Stuttgart 1-0 in the reverse fixture as a Paul Jaeckel goal stole all three points for the visitors. This has been a draw-heavy fixture in recent seasons, though.
Three of the last five meetings have finished in draws and another comes in at +225 Bundesliga Matchday 26 odds. Stuttgart have managed to pick up five draws on the road this season but they’ve dropped each of their other seven away games. The underdogs do, however, come in at -120 odds to cover the 0.5-goal spread.
Stuttgart are still looking for their first-ever road win at Union Berlin and come in at +300 odds to get it. It’d be a massive result in their relegation fight but defense has been a big problem for them in recent weeks. Despite scoring in five of their last six matches, they’ve picked up just four points in that stretch and conceded 1.6 goals per game.
Plus, over two goals are priced at -120 odds. Hosts Union have lost just one Bundesliga match in 2023 and are unbeaten at home in the 2022-23 Bundesliga season. Sheraldo Becker’s been their biggest offensive threat, with 11 goal contributions.
SC Freiburg vs Hertha
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One of the most interesting matches on the Matchday 26 Bundesliga schedule is SC Freiburg vs. Hertha. Fourth-placed Freiburg lead RB Leipzig by just one point for the final Champions League berth. Meanwhile, Hertha currently sit in 16th place, which is the relegation playoff spot.
A win would do wonders for both sides here, but it’s SC Freiburg who are the favorites here. The hosts have compiled an impressive 8-3-1 record at home this season and sit at -145 ATS and moneyline odds. Forward Michael Gregoritsch, who has scored eight goals this season, is suspended for the match, though.
That’s good news for Hertha, but the Berlin club has the worst away record in the Bundesliga this season. They’ve picked up just four points away from home all season, with a 1-1-10 record. Hertha have lost by at least a two-goal margin in each of their last four road matches and Sandro Schwarz’s first season as coach has been difficult.
Joint second-leading scorer Marco Richter is also out to a suspension on Saturday. Belgian international Dodi Lukebakio, who has scored 10 times this season, is available for selection, though. As 0.5-goal underdogs, Hertha sit at +125 odds to cover and +400 odds to win the match. When these teams met last October, they drew 2-2 and another draw displays +280 odds.
Matches between these two sides have been quite high scoring recently. The last six Bundesliga matchups have finished with three or more goals. Freiburg have won their last four home matches vs. Hertha and scored at least twice in each of those games. Defying recent trends, the odds price under 2.5 goals at -115 odds for Saturday’s match.
RB Leipzig vs Mainz
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Many expected RB Leipzig to bounce back from an embarrassing 7-0 defeat to Manchester City and beat VfL Bochum. However, Leipzig lost 1-0 on the road to Bochum and there are more questions than answers coming out of the international break.
One of the biggest questions for Leipzig is when will Christopher Nkunku be fully healthy? Leipzig’s leading scorer has missed a bunch of time over the last few months with recurring injuries. RB Leipzig need him down the stretch as they shoot for another Champions League appearance. In any case, the Bundesliga Matchday 26 odds price Leipzig at -200 odds to defeat a tricky Mainz side on Saturday.
Visitors Mainz are currently on a six-game unbeaten run in the Bundesliga and are surprise European contenders. Even with Mainz’s unbeaten streak, they are one-goal underdogs for their match in Leipzig. Mainz, who have avoided defeat in three of their last four matches vs. RB Leipzig, come in at +105 odds to cover.
Leipzig, who are currently in fifth place, sit at -125 odds to cover. Mainz’s moneyline sits at +500 odds and they’ve never won at the Red Bull Arena in six previous trips.
RB Leipzig are 5-1-0 at home vs Mainz but only managed a draw in the reverse fixture back in October. Another draw displays +350 odds and it’d be a fine result for this overachieving Mainz side.
Notably, Mainz are on an 11-game scoring streak in the Bundesliga but under three goals come in at -135 odds for Saturday’s match. Leipzig need to shore up defensively and desperately need a win here to stay in the thick of the top-four race.
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