Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Expert Pick

Real Madrid Unbeaten in European Finals Since 1983 Champions League Final

Dortmund Making Surprise UCL Final Appearance

Real Madrid will go for their record 15th Champions League title on Saturday when they take on surprise finalists Borussia Dortmund.

While Real Madrid are in their second UCL Final in the last three seasons, Dortmund are back for the first time since 2013. Dortmund progressed through a comically difficult group and have taken down some European giants on their way to the Final.

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Real Madrid’s late game heroics vs Bayern Munich helped them progress here and they are the unsurprising favorites. In the last match of the 2023-24 campaign, we’ll check out the odds and make our Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Expert Pick.

BVB Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid RMA

Day/Time:
Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting between Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in a Champions League Final. These UCL teams haven’t faced off since 2017, when Real Madrid defeated Borussia Dortmund twice in the Group Stage.

They also met in the group stage one year prior, as both matches finished 2-2. Borussia Dortmund have only won one of their last seven matches vs Real Madrid, with a 1-2-4 record during that time.

The Champions League stats show Real are 6-5-3 vs Borussia Dortmund all-time.

Borussia Dortmund Defying the Odds

Borussia Dortmund were soccer betting underdogs for both of their Champions League Semifinal games vs PSG. In the first leg, Dortmund won 1-0 as Niclas Fullkrug scored the game’s only goal.

Dortmund were +180 underdogs, despite playing at home and they were +525 underdogs in the second leg, which they also won 1-0. Dortmund have been defying the Champions League odds all season long.

They trailed Atletico Madrid 2-1 after the first leg of the UCL Quarter-Finals and were +200 underdogs to go through to the Semis after that.

Still, Dortmund managed a resounding 4-2 win over Atleti and Edin Terzic’s side have played their best with their backs against the wall.

Dortmund were underdogs just to advance out of the Group Stage. They won the Group of Death, with Newcastle, PSG and AC Milan but came in at just +500 odds to do so and +175 odds to advance to the Round of 16. It’s been a team effort for Dortmund, who haven’t been Champions League winners since 1997.

Fullkrug has scored three times and players like Mats Hummels, Karim Adeyemi, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ian Maatsen, Julian Brandt, Jadon Sancho and Marcel Sabitzer have all played key roles.

Wingers Adeyemi and Sancho both had to do a lot of defensive work to neutralize PSG’s wingers in the Semifinal. That could once again be the case on Saturday.

Real Madrid Unbeaten in UCL for First Time

It seems unbelievable but this is the first time Real Madrid standings show they’ve reached a European Cup/Champions League Final without losing a match.

La Liga champions Real have gone 8-4-0 en route to yet another UCL Final and there’s no telling who will step up for them on any given Matchday.

In the Semifinal second leg, it was substitute striker Joselu who scored twice late in the second half to seal Real’s comeback victory over Bayern Munich.

The score finished 2-1 on the night, meaning Los Blancos had won 4-3 on aggregate. They won as -115 moneyline favorites after drawing their previous four UCL games. Real drew 2-2 in the first leg vs Bayern as Vinicius Junior scored twice, including a late equalizer.

In the Quarter-Finals, Real drew twice vs defending champions Man City but Real goalkeeper Andriy Lunin was the hero in penalties.

While Lunin has been great in Thibaut Courtois’ injury absence, it could be Courtois who starts his first UCL match of the UCL season here. Vini Jr. and Jude Bellingham have come through with timely goals on plenty of occasions this season and they and Rodrygo are Madrid’s key attacking players.

In midfield, Toni Kroos will be playing his final Real Madrid match and he’s likely to start alongside Fede Valverde, Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga in midfield. Camavinga will likely fill in for Aurelien Tchouameni, who is out injured. David Alaba will also miss this one with an ACL injury.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Match Analysis & Odds

Before we make our Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Expert Pick, we’d like to highlight that this promises to be an interesting match on a tactical level. Borussia Dortmund will be ready to absorb the pressure from Madrid’s attacks in build up play.

Terzic won’t want to commit too many Dortmund numbers forward, lest he risk Bellingham, Rodrygo and Vini running straight at his backline. Granted, Dortmund right back Julian Ryerson did a great job vs Kylian Mbappe in the Semis.

Real Madrid will rely on Vini as their biggest creator but their ability to get come-from-behind goals seemingly on command means they can never be counted out even if they fall behind. Plus, Real Madrid have won each of the eight Champions League Finals they’ve contested and have lost just once in their last 20 games vs German teams.

Heading into this one, Real Madrid are -165 moneyline favorites and Los Blancos sit at -350 odds to lift the trophy. Dortmund are +440 underdogs in 90 minutes and are priced at +250 odds to come away with their first UCL title since 1997.

  • A draw, which hasn’t happened in a UCL Final, displays +310 odds. Dortmund +1 comes in at -125, while bettors can find Real +1 at +105 and over 2.5 goals at -140.

For UCL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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