Champions League: Inter vs Milan Semifinals Odds & Preview

UCL Final Berth on the Line

Inter Hold Advantage Heading into Second Leg

Inter Milan frustrated their rivals AC Milan in the first leg of the Champions League Semifinals. Without Rafael Leao, AC Milan fell 2-0 and need a miraculous turnaround in the second leg to advance to the final. Tuesday brings the fifth and final Derby della Madonnina of the season at the Stadio San Siro. Inter head into the match on a seven-match winning streak in all competitions and have been firing on all cylinders lately. Let’s take a look at the Inter vs Milan semifinals odds for the second leg.

Champions League Semifinals

INT Inter Milan vs AC Milan MIL

Date, time:
Location: Stadio San Siro, Milan, Italy
Stream: CBS, Univision, TUDN, Paramount+

Head-to-Head

Following last Wednesday’s 2-0 first leg victory, Inter Milan have now won their last three matches vs. AC Milan. Inter found the net twice in the first 11 minutes of the match as Edin Dzeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan scored. The Rossoneri managed to keep the majority of possession but Inter conceded few good chances.

The Inter vs Milan semifinals odds priced Inter as +145 pre-match. The Nerazzurri have now kept three straight shutouts vs. the Rossoneri and outscored them 6-0 in those matches. In fact, AC Milan have failed to score in five of their last six games vs. Inter.

Inter Milan’s Winning Streak Continues

  • Last Match: 4-2 W vs. Sassuolo
  • Key Injuries: D Milan Skriniar, F Joaquin Correa

Inter Milan further solidified their position in Serie A’s top four with a 4-2 win over Sassuolo on Saturday. Romelu Lukaku scored twice and certainly made a case for Simone Inzaghi to start him on Tuesday.

Inter have scored an impressive 3.4 goals per game in their last five matches, in all competitions. They’ve also scored at least twice in each of their last five matches. The Nerazzurri are peaking at the right time and will protect their two-goal advantage vs. AC Milan with all they’ve got.

Bayern Munich remain the only team on Inter Milan’s UCL schedule this season to defeat the Nerazzurri. In last Wednesday’s 2-0 win, Andre Onana kept his Champions League-leading seventh shutout of the campaign as well. Inter defend with vigor and seem to block countless shots in the box and constantly make last-ditch tackles.

Inter left back Federico Dimarco has also provided five assists in the Champions League, which ranks second in the competition.

Alessandro Bastoni was a standout in the heart of Inter’s defense in the first leg. He made multiple defense-breaking runs from the back and was excellent defensively as well.

The last two times Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi and Matteo Darmian have started at the back they’ve kept clean sheets. Inzaghi could certainly call on trio once again on Tuesday. One player who most definitely won’t be available is center back Milan Skriniar. Forward Joaquin Correa is also dealing with a knock but is not a regular starter anyway.

AC Milan’s Late Season Implosion

  • Last Match: 2-0 L vs. Spezia
  • Key Injuries: D/M Alessandro Florenzi, M Ismael Bennacer, M Junior Messias, M Rade Krunic, F Rafael Leao

Spezia escaped the relegation zone on Saturday at AC Milan’s expense. A toothless Milan side fell 2-0 to 17th-placed Spezia following a 2-0 loss to Inter midweek. AC Milan are four points outside of Serie A’s top four and are at serious risk of exiting the UCL on Tuesday.

They’ve won just one of their last five matches, in all competitions and have struggled to score lately. The Rossoneri have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches.

Milan’s fate may very well rest on the status of winger Rafael Leao. Last season’s Serie A player of the year missed the first leg with a groin injury and Milan struggled to create chances as a result. Leao has reportedly trained in the last week but Stefano Pioli kept him out of Saturday’s match. Perhaps that means that Milan’s talisman starts on Tuesday. Starting midfielder Ismael Bennacer is also out for the season after picking up an injury in last Wednesday’s match.

AC Milan have won just two of their last five matches in the Champions League. They drew and won vs. both Tottenham and Napoli in the round of 16 and quarterfinals, respectively.

Milan finished second in the Group E UCL standings as Olivier Giroud leads the team with five UCL goals. Leao has also added four assists and Rossoneri fans will be hoping the duo starts on Tuesday.

Match Analysis and Odds

AC Milan lacked a threat in the final third without Rafael Leao last week. Leao is a dynamic player who can take defenders on and create chances for his teammates. Bettors should absolutely continue to monitor his status for Tuesday’s match. Right now, the Inter vs Milan semifinals odds list Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan as -1800 favorites to advance to the final. As long as Inter don’t lose by more than a goal here, they’ll automatically advance. A two-goal loss will mean that the fixture goes into extra time but Milan haven’t defeated Inter by a multi-goal margin since 2016.

The Rossoneri are +900 underdogs to make their first final since 2007 and +285 underdogs to come away with a win. Inter come in at -105 ATS and moneyline odds to win an eighth straight match. Although AC Milan have had a rough time vs. Inter recently, Milan +0.5 comes in at -125 odds. Bettors should note that AC Milan have won just one of their last six matches vs. Inter, with one draw during that span. A draw shows +235 odds and would be a sufficient result for Inter.

Although Milan most definitely need to throw numbers forward in this one, under 2.5 goals display -130 odds. Inter have looked comfortable defending leads in the Champions League thus far.

In the round of 16, they held Porto to a scoreless draw on the road after winning the first leg, 1-0. Inter also took a 2-0 lead over Benfica in the first leg of the quarterfinals and won the fixture 5-3 on aggregate. If Inter advance, it’ll mark their first appearance in the Champions League final since 2010.
Follow us on Twitter


Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

Back to top button

pointspreads

WHO WILL WIN?

March Madness
gonzaga
Gonzaga
Purdue
Purdue
Friday, March 29, 2024
50%
50%
March Madness
creighton
Creighton
Tennessee
Tennessee
Friday, March 29, 2024
50%
50%
Serie A
napoli
Napoli
Atalanta
Atalanta
Saturday, March 30, 2024
50%
50%
Bundesliga
bayern munich
Bayern Munich
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, March 30, 2024
50%
50%
Submit your vote and view the results
Hey Again

vote all you can

pointspreads

PS-email

PS-email

pointspreads

pointspreads-email

Bet like a PRO!

pointspreads-email

Subscribe now and get Weekly Expert Free Picks