Newcastle United vs AC Milan Odds & Preview
Group of Death Finale

Must Win for Both Sides
Both Newcastle United and AC Milan need to win Wednesday’s Champions League group stage finale to have a chance to make the round of 16. Unfortunately, matters aren’t in either of their hands, as their qualification status depends on PSG’s result at Borussia Dortmund. Should Newcastle win over AC Milan at St. James’ Park and PSG lose or draw at Dortmund, the Magpies will qualify for the round of 16. Meanwhile, Milan will need to grab all three points and have PSG lose to go through. Ahead of Wednesday’s crucial match, we’ll cover the Newcastle United vs AC Milan odds.
Newcastle vs AC Milan
Date, time:
Location: St. James’ Park, Newcastle, England
Streaming: Live Sports Stream
Head-to-Head
UCL matchups between Newcastle and AC Milan have been rare. In fact, this is only the second meeting between the sides in UEFA competition. Back in September, these teams played to a scoreless draw in the group stage opener. The pre-game Newcastle United vs AC Milan odds listed a draw at +260.
Newcastle’s Injury Crisis Continues
Newcastle United have run out of steam in recent weeks, with just one win in their last four games. The chief cause of the fatigue is an injury crisis that has forced Eddie Howe to stick with the same batch players for most matches. The latest player to join the injury list is goalkeeper Nick Pope, who could be out until April with a dislocated shoulder. Along with Pope, Joe Willock, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Matt Targett, Elliot Anderson and Harvey Barnes are out injured.
Plus, Sandro Tonali is suspended for the season and the midfielder will not be able to face his former club. Meanwhile, Jamaal Lascelles and Sven Botman are doubtful. Striker Callum Wilson did recently return from an injury to bolster Newcastle’s sputtering front line. On Sunday, the Magpies fell 4-1 on the road at Tottenham and also lost 3-0 at Everton last Thursday. Newcastle have been abysmal on the road this season, with just two wins in 12 matches. Meanwhile, they’ve won nine of 11 at St. James’ Park, including one of their more historic UCL results. They managed a 4-1 victory over PSG in October.
Howe and Newcastle know they’ll need to win in front of their home fans to have any chance of advancing to the round of 16. The atmosphere at St. James’ Park should be electric and expect the Magpies to feed off of the energy. Still, it is highly concerning that Newcastle have scored just twice in their last four games. They’re also yet to score vs. a non-PSG side in the Champions League this season.
AC Milan Slumping
AC Milan have been one of the more up and down soccer betting picks in recent weeks. On Saturday, they fell 3-2 to Atalanta in Serie A as Milan captain Davide Calabria got sent off with minutes to play. Luis Muriel then scored a 95th minute winner for La Dea with an impressive flick past Mike Maignan. The Rossoneri have only won three of their last ten matches, in all competitions.
They are in danger of finishing in last place in their Champions League group and dropping out of European competition altogether. Based on Wednesday’s match, Milan can finish anywhere from second to fourth but a draw or loss means they’ll finish in last. A win will at least confer a berth in the Europa League knockout round and they’ll need PSG to lose vs. Dortmund to have a shot at the UCL round of 16.
In their last Champions League match, Milan fell 3-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund. It was a disappointing result for the Rossoneri and they head into the final group stage matchday with a -4 goal difference. They’ve scored just three goals in five UCL games but their entire front three of Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic is healthy for this one. Bettors can expect Malick Thiaw, Noah Okafor, Pierre Kalulu and Simon Kjaer to be out, though.
Match Analysis & Odds
Despite Newcastle’s recent struggles, they are -115 ATS and moneyline favorites to go on and win Wednesday’s match vs. AC Milan. The Magpies have conceded just six goals in 11 matches at St. James’ Park this season and know they’re very much still in the running for a knockout stage berth. Although, Newcastle to qualify for the round of 16 comes in at just +165 odds as they also need PSG to draw or lose on Wednesday.
The Newcastle United vs AC Milan odds also list the Rossoneri as +285 underdogs for this one. Bettors can take AC Milan +0.5 at -105 odds as they look for their first away goal, and win, of the 2023-24 UCL. Milan will feel confident about getting on the scoresheet in this must-win matchup, especially since Newcastle have conceded seven times in their last two games.
A draw does absolutely nothing to help either team qualify for the knockout stage but one displays 290 odds. Under 2.5, 3 goals are priced at -120 odds in what should be a feisty match.