UCL Quarterfinal Odds: Second Leg Preview
Four Teams Have Foot in Semifinal
Osimhen, Napoli Look to Overturn Deficit
All four first leg UCL Quarterfinals fixtures ended with a winner. So, AC Milan, Real Madrid, Inter Milan and Manchester City will take leads into this week’s second legs. It’ll be an uphill battle for Chelsea, Benfica and Bayern Munich to overturn multi-goal deficits. None of them can be completely counted out just yet, especially with the away goals rule scrapped as of last season. However, Napoli head into Tuesday’s home match vs AC Milan needing just a goal to tie up the fixture. With striker Victor Osimhen back, things could certainly get interesting. We’ll take a look at Napoli vs. AC Milan and the other UCL Quarterfinals odds in this week’s preview.
UCL Quarter Finals Matches:
Napoli vs AC Milan
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First Leg Result: Napoli 0-1 AC Milan
Just ten days after falling 4-0 to AC Milan at home, Napoli lost once again to the Rossoneri in the UCL. Ismaël Bennacer’s goal was the difference last Wednesday at the San Siro and AC Milan have one foot in the Semifinal. However, Napoli were missing star striker and Serie A leading scorer Victor Osimhen in the first leg.
Osimhen made a substitute appearance in Napoli’s scoreless draw vs Verona on Saturday and is now in line to start the second leg. Napoli led the UCL team stats with 20 goals in the group stage and it’ll be a big boost to have their star forward back.
With Osimhen’s return, Serie A leaders Napoli enter the match as 0.5-goal favorites and come in at -130 ATS and moneyline odds. Both Napoli and AC Milan drew in Serie A over the weekend as the Rossoneri got a point at Bologna. Both Napoli manager Luciano Spalletti and Milan boss Stefano Pioli rested some key players ahead of this match, so both sides should be fresh.
However, Napoli’s Kim-min Jae and Frank Anguissa are suspended for the second leg. AC Milan show +110 odds to cover the spread and advance as a result. Milan don’t need a win but they enter the match as +390 underdogs to get another win at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Milan have all of their players, with the exception of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, available for Tuesday’s match. Not many had Milan as contenders at the beginning of the season, and the same goes for Napoli, but both sides are quite talented. While Osimhen and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia are key attacking cogs for Napoli, Rafael Leao is Milan’s most dynamic player.
It’s Milan’s defense that should be tested the most in this match, though. Notably, AC Milan have kept clean sheets in their last five UCL matches and under 2.5 goals sit at -130 odds here. A draw, which only works for AC Milan, displays +260 odds.
Chelsea vs Real Madrid
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First Leg Result: Chelsea 0-2 Real Madrid
Chelsea recently brought in former coach Frank Lampard again to try to stop their bleeding but the Blues continue to lose matches. Chelsea are 0-3 since Lampard took over again, including last week’s 2-0 loss at the Santiago Bernabeu. Karim Benzema and Marco Asensio scored Real Madrid’s goals. Meanwhile, Ben Chilwell got sent off for Chelsea and will miss the second leg. Brighton also came back from 1-0 down to defeat Chelsea 2-1 on Saturday in the EPL.
Basically eliminated from Champions League contention next season due to their league position, Chelsea’s only hope is winning this season’s UCL. It’ll now take a miracle to overturn a two-goal deficit vs. the defending champions. The UCL Quarterfinals odds price Chelsea at just +750 odds to go on and qualify for the Semifinal.
Oddsmakers aren’t exactly confident in the Blues, as they also come in at just +105 odds to cover as a pick’em. Meanwhile Real Madrid pk displays -125 odds. Incredibly, no team has ever won two away games in the Champions League at Stamford Bridge. Benzema, Vinicius Jr. and Real threatened to be the first team to pull it off on Tuesday, as they won 3-1 in London last year.
In addition to Chilwell, Chelsea will be missing defender Kalidou Koulibaly. Kai Havertz, who scored the winner in the 2021 Champions League final, is probable but is nursing a knee injury. Real’s Ferland Mendy is out injured. However, both Toni Kroos and Vinicius Jr. should be fresh after they rested during Saturday’s 2-0 win over Cadiz.
The moneylines for Tuesday’s match are as follows: Chelsea +180, Real Madrid +145 and Draw +255. Chelsea will need a two-goal win to force extra time and over 2.5 goals show -115 odds for the match. Real are a team with a lot of experience, though, and seem to save their best performances for the UCL.
Inter Milan vs Benfica
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First Leg Result: Inter Milan 2-0 Benfica
Inter Milan are in an excellent position heading into Wednesday’s return leg vs Benfica. The Nerazzurri were the only team to pick up a road win in the first leg and they now have a two-goal cushion. Inter come in at -1600 odds to qualify for their first UCL Semifinal since 2010 and haven’t lost any of their matches at the San Siro by more than two goals this season. As for Benfica, their worst form of the season has come at the most inopportune time. They’ve lost each of their last three matches with just one goal during that time.
The Champions League odds price Inter as 0.5-goal home favorites, at longer than even odds. Simone Inzaghi’s side show +115 ATS and moneyline odds for Wednesday’s crucial second leg. This is still a dangerous Benfica team that defeated Juventus twice in the group stage and drew twice with PSG. The Portuguese Primeira Liga leaders come in at +240 odds to win the match but need at least two goals to force extra time.
The good news for Benfica fans is that they display -240 odds to get on the board here and -135 odds to cover. An early Benfica goal could put a lot of pressure on Inter and the Nerazzurri’s job is certainly not done yet. Milan Skriniar still hasn’t returned to the heart of Inter’s defense and Alexander Bah is out for Benfica.
Benfica have a bunch of players who can cause Inter problems. Joao Mario’s handball led to Romelu Lukaku’s penalty goal in the first leg but the midfielder has still scored 23 goals for Benfica, in all competitions. Goncalo Ramos, David Neres and Rafa Silva are also more than capable of turning this fixture around.
Still, Inter goalkeeper Andre Onana has made the most saves in the UCL this season and is in excellent form. That said, under 2.5 goals seem to be more likely than the over, at -115 odds. A draw, which only benefits Inter, also sits at +250 odds.
Bayern Munich vs Manchester City
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First Leg Result: Bayern Munich 0-3 Manchester City
Manchester City punished Bayern Munich’s mistakes en route to a 3-0 win in the first leg. Rodri scored a screamer and Bernardo Silva and Erling Haaland added insurance goals. Center back Dayot Upamecano had an incredibly difficult time for Bayern and it remains to be seen whether he’ll start this match.
Bayern have not played well under Thomas Tuchel yet. They’ve won just one of their last four matches, in all competitions. There’s also been trouble in the locker room, as Sadio Mane allegedly struck Leroy Sane following an argument last Wednesday. Bayern suspended Mane for Saturday’s 1-1 draw vs Hoffenheim due to “misconduct”.
Bayern need to put things together now, as they’re in grave danger of crashing out of the Champions League. The UCL Quarterfinals odds aren’t giving the Bavarians much of a chance, though. Man City enter the match as -3000 favorites to qualify for the Semifinal, while Bayern are +1300 underdogs to advance.
Bayern have also never beaten Man City by more than two goals and aren’t even favored to win at home. In this pick’em, Man City sit at -130 odds to cover, while Bayern display just +110 odds. Bayern have relied on Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting for goals this season but the Cameroon international remains out with a knee injury. He could potentially make a substitute appearance on Wednesday, though.
Meanwhile, Manchester City have no such goal concerns. Erling Haaland has been a machine this season, with 47 goals in 40 appearances. He added two goals to his tally over the weekend as Man City beat Leicester City 3-1. City have now won 10 matches in a row, in all competitions. Still, they display just +135 odds to win here, compared to Bayern’s +180. A draw is also priced at +280 odds and over three goals show -120 odds in what could turn into a goalfest, given Bayern’s desperation.
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