UCL Semifinals: Real Madrid vs Man City Odds

Rematch of Last Year’s Instant Classic

Favorites Face Off in Semifinals

Manchester City were minutes away from sealing consecutive Champions League finals berths last season. Then, it all fell apart as Real Madrid’s Rodrygo sent the fixture into extra time with two goals. Real completed yet another comeback and went on to win the Champions League. Now, fans will be treated to a rematch of last year’s Semifinals as Los Blancos and City meet again at the same stage. Defending champions Real Madrid will play host to Manchester City in the first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu. As these massive clubs meet in Madrid for the first leg, we’ll take a look at the Real Madrid vs. Man City odds.

RMA Real Madrid vs Manchester City MCI

Date, time:
Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain
Stream: CBS, Univision, TUDN, Paramount+

Head-to-Head

Real Madrid’s comeback vs. Manchester City in last year’s Champions League Semifinals was one for the ages. Los Blancos lost the first leg 4-3 and fell behind 5-3 on aggregate with just minutes to play in the second leg.

It certainly looked like Man City would advance to back-to-back finals. Then, Rodrygo scored two 90th minute goals to level proceedings and send the fixture into extra time. There, a Karim Benzema penalty proved to be the winner for Real Madrid.

Real’s triumph last season broke a three-game Manchester City winning streak in this fixture. In the Champions League era, the series is tied 3-3, with 2 draws. The road team has only won one of the eight historical UCL meetings.

Ancelotti, Real Have Been Here Before

  • Quarterfinal Result: 4-0 agg. W vs. Chelsea
  • Key Injuries: D David Alaba (Questionable), D Ferland Mendy (Questionable), M Luka Modric (Questionable)

Bettors should know that Real Madrid are the most successful team in the history of the European Cup/Champions League. They lead the all-time Champions League standings with 14 titles and are looking for a fifth in the last eight years. In fact, Real’s last match ended with a trophy as they defeated Osasuna 2-1 on Saturday in the Copa del Rey final.

Rodrygo, who was the hero vs. Manchester City last season, scored both of Los Blancos’ goals in the match. Notably, Luka Modric sat out due to an injury but is aiming to be fit and ready for Tuesday’s match. Defenders David Alaba and Ferland Mendy are also questionable for the match.

Real Madrid’s experience in the Champions League should certainly serve them well here. Karim Benzema, Nacho Fernandez and Luka Modric are five-time winners. Modric and Benzema are still key players and the latter is the reigning Ballon d’Or winner.

Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois came up absolutely huge in last season’s final and can single-handedly keep Real in games. Then, of course there’s pacy and skillful left winger Vinicius Jr. who can cause City a ton of problems.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti is certainly no stranger to this competition as well. The Italian won the competition twice as a player and has won the UCL three times as a manager.

He made some key adjustments last season to inspire a handful of comebacks. Real Madrid can almost never be counted out, as they can turn things on in a flash. In the round of 16 vs. Liverpool, they fell behind 2-0 but went on to score six unanswered goals to close out the fixture.

Real also knocked out another English team, Chelsea, in the Quarterfinals, with two relatively comfortable 2-0 wins. Real can take down another English giant here but this should be the toughest test of all.

Man City Locked In

  • Quarterfinal Result: 4-1 agg. W vs. Bayern Munich
  • Key Injuries: D Nathan Ake (Questionable)

Since losing 1-0 to Tottenham in the Premier League in early February, Manchester City have been nearly flawless. The Cityzens are heavy favorites to win the EPL, on the back of 10 straight league wins. In all competitions, City are on a 20-match unbeaten run and have been dominant in the Champions League.

They easily dispatched Bayern Munich, beating the Germans 4-1 on aggregate. In total, they’ve outscored their UCL opponents 26-4 this season. Superstar Norwegian striker Erling Haaland has played a key role in that. Haaland, in his first season with City, leads the UCL with 12 goals and an incredible 1.88 goals per 90 minutes.

Haaland also recently broke the single-season EPL record for goals in a season, with 35. Pep Guardiola is hoping that the addition of Haaland is enough to get City over the line in the UCL.

The Sky Blues have never won the Champions League despite consistent deep runs over the last few seasons. The Real Madrid vs Man City odds do price City as favorites to get to the final, at -300 to advance. It certainly won’t be easy, as Real Madrid put up quite the fight last season.

From back to front, though, City have been excellent this season. Manuel Akanji, a versatile defender, has been another excellent addition to the side. In Kevin de Bruyne, Rodri, Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva, Guardiola has world class midfielders at his disposal.

Now that Phil Foden has returned from injury, City have a full set of attackers to work with as well. While Haaland is a lock to start up top, it’s unclear whether Grealish or Foden will earn a start on the left wing. Riyad Mahrez and Silva are options on the right. Julian Alvarez, who scored four goals at the World Cup for Argentina, is also a solid back up striker to have.

Match Analysis and Odds

Although this match is being played in Spain, the Real Madrid vs Man City odds price the visitors as favorites. As ½-goal favorites, City come in at both +115 ATS and moneyline odds.

They have only won one of their four matches at the Santiago Bernabeu but are in incredible form. Recently, Real Madrid have had both highs and lows. Valentin Castellanos, on loan at Girona from NYCFC, recently scored four goals against Los Blancos in a La Liga match. Along with losing that match 4-2, Real also lost 2-0 to Real Sociedad to kick off the month of May.

Real, especially under Ancelotti, seem to bring it in big matches, though. The UCL Semifinals odds price Real +½ at -135 here as they’re coming off their first Copa del Rey trophy since 2014.

Los Blancos enter this match as +225 underdogs but have won all five of their previous home matches in the Champions League this season. If Modric can’t play it’ll be a blow but if he’s even remotely fit expect the Croatian to slot into the lineup.

None of the last five matches between these teams have finished in draws but one displays +265 odds here. For Man City, it wouldn’t at all be a bad result in light of next week’s second leg at the Etihad.

City have been excellent offensively over the last couple of months and have averaged 2.9 goals per game in their last 10 matches. Real have also averaged over two goals per game during that span but under three goals show -130 odds for this can’t-miss match.
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