EPL Matchday 38 Odds & Preview: European Spot Hangs in the Balance
Relegation Fight Nears an End
European Spot Hangs in the Balance
On the last Sunday of the Premier League season, the UEFA Europa Conference League place is up for grabs. All of Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford are vying for a place in European tournaments. Meanwhile, the relegation fight will take center stage as any two of Everton, Leicester City and Leeds United will go down to the Championship. Depending on Manchester United’s Thursday result vs. Chelsea, Liverpool may still be able to reach next season’s Champions League. Let’s review the EPL Matchday 38 odds from the Premier League finale.
Matches of the Week
Brighton and Aston Villa enter the weekend in sixth and seventh place in the EPL standings, respectively. With a 1-1 draw vs. Man City on Wednesday, Brighton sealed sixth and a Europa League berth. Meanwhile, Aston Villa are just one point ahead of Tottenham and two points ahead of Brentford. If Villa finish above both clubs, they’ll seal a UEFA Europa Conference League berth.
Villa enter the match as ½-goal favorites and show +110 ATS and moneyline odds. They’ve won seven of their last 11 matches heading into the final day.
Brighton enter the match at -130 odds to cover the spread and can’t improve their league position no matter the result. They’ve also lost three straight matches vs. Aston Villa and are +215 underdogs. A draw may be enough for Aston Villa to clinch a European place, but it depends on Tottenham and Brentford’s results. A draw displays +285 odds and over three goals come in at -120 odds.
Everton come into the final day in 17th place, just two points ahead of the relegation zone. Because the Toffees have a worse goal difference than Leicester and could finish with a worse goal difference than Leeds, they may need a win to avoid relegation.
Everton fans may take a bit of solace in the fact that they’re one-goal favorites for Sunday’s match vs. Bournemouth. Everton come in at -135 EPL Matchday 38 odds to cover and -220 odds to win the match. However, Bournemouth have won their last four matches vs. Everton.
Bournemouth +1 displays +115 odds, while the visitors are +575 moneyline underdogs. It’s certainly possible that Everton will survive with a draw, and one shows +370 odds. Everton have a few defenders who are doubts for this match in Vitaliy Mykolenko, Nathan Patterson, and Ben Godfrey.
Captain Seamus Coleman has also been shut down for the season. On the other hand, Bournemouth are safe from relegation but have lost their last three matches. Bettors can take under three goals at -135 odds here, as Bournemouth have conceded two goals per game in their previous three.
Nothing short of a win will be enough for Leeds United to survive the relegation scrap heap. Even if they win, they must hope Leicester and Everton fail to win. A match with Tottenham certainly isn’t the easiest way to end the campaign, but Spurs have been incredibly inconsistent recently.
Tottenham are in eighth place, in danger of missing out on European football entirely without a result. Harry Kane has scored 28 goals this season and will be looking to add to his tally on Sunday.
In this pick’em, Tottenham come in at -130 odds to cover on the road, while Leeds pk sits at +110 odds. Spurs display +135 odds to get a win that could propel them to European football next season.
Leeds are dealing with many injuries heading into this match and are +175 underdogs amid their survival fight. A draw is priced at +285 odds, and over three goals also show -120 odds here.
Manchester United have Chelsea on their EPL schedule on Thursday before taking on Fulham on Sunday. If Manchester United pick up a point in either of those matches, they’ll clinch a berth in next season’s UEFA Champions League. If United lose both, Liverpool will snag fourth place with a win over last-placed Southampton. The good news for United fans is that they haven’t lost to Fulham since 2009.
For this match, United are one-goal favorites and sit at -135 odds to cover. Heading into Thursday’s match vs. Chelsea, United have won consecutive matches.
They defeated Bournemouth 1-0 last weekend and kept a shutout vs. Wolves a week prior. Man United are -215 moneyline favorites and beat Fulham 2-1 in the reverse fixture. Each of United’s last five matches have finished with two or fewer goals, but over three goals come in at -130 odds here.
The Cottagers are unbeaten in their last three matches, but Fulham +1 displays just +115 odds. They’re also +525 moneyline underdogs as a draw is priced at +385.
Leicester City have suffered a steep decline over the last couple of seasons. The 2015-16 Premier League champions are one game away from relegation unless they win on Sunday and Everton draw or lose.
The Foxes host West Ham at the King Power Stadium, who will play in the UEFA Europa Conference League final in a couple of weeks. The EPL Matchday 38 odds list Leicester City as ½-goal favorites, and they stand at -105 ATS and moneyline odds. James Maddison and Harvey Barnes have had solid individual seasons for Leicester but their defense has been dreadful.
Leicester have conceded 10 goals in their last three games alone, but under three goals display -125 odds here. David Moyes and West Ham will undoubtedly prioritize the Conference League final, but they got a 3-1 win over Leeds last Sunday. West Ham are winless in their previous two games vs. Leicester, and the Hammers +½ comes in at -115 odds. The visitors are also +255 underdogs, and a draw shows +295 odds. A draw would send Leicester City down to the EFL Championship for the first time since the 2013-14 season.
Southampton have known their fate for a few weeks. The Saints will finish last in the Premier League and go down to the EFL Championship. Only Wolves have scored fewer goals than Southampton, and the Saints have the worst goal difference in the league.
They can play only for pride on Sunday when they take on Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. Liverpool have won 10 of their last 11 matches vs. Southampton, and they’ve also won seven of their previous eight matches in the EPL.
James Milner and Roberto Firmino feature in their last Liverpool may match. They, along with the injured Naby Keita and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, are leaving the club at the end of the season. Liverpool -1½ comes in at -105 odds, and the visitors are -260 favorites.
LFC need to win to have any hope of making the Champions League, but it could be out of the running before Sunday. If Manchester United draw or win vs. Chelsea on Thursday, Liverpool will finish fifth. Meanwhile, Southampton +1½ sits at -115 odds and the hosts are +600 underdogs vs. Liverpool. A draw displays +455 odds and under 3½ goals are priced at -120 odds for the match.
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