Premier League Top Four Analysis: Teams Odds to Win EPL

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Fresh Faces in the Premier League Top Four in 2022-23? 

Finishing in the top four of the English Premier League may sound like an arbitrary distinction but it’s a massive achievement. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League and earn a lot more money in the process. Last season’s thrilling race for fourth, which Tottenham won over Arsenal, came down to the final day. Now, let’s take a look at next season’s teams odds to win EPL.

Runaway Favorites

Unsurprisingly, Manchester City and Liverpool are heavy favorites to qualify for the Champions League. Pep Guardiola’s City is two-time defending Premier League champions and haven’t finished outside of the top four since the 2009-10 season. The Citizens are priced at a whopping -3300 to make the Champions League next season and -175 to win the EPL. They’ve made a statement to the rest of the league by bringing in young attackers Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez.

Liverpool just missed out on last season’s Premier League and Champions League titles and should be motivated in 2022-23. Jurgen Klopp’s side completed a big-money transfer for Darwin Nunez last week and his arrival will soften the blow of losing Sadio Mane. The Reds have one of the best defenses in the league and should certainly compete on all fronts this season. They’re listed at -1000 Teams Odds to Win EPL and at +200 to win the league.

Top Four Favorites

Now here’s where things get interesting. Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester United, the rest of the EPL top teams, are expected to be involved in a contentious battle for the last two UCL bids.

Chelsea’s offseason hasn’t been great thus far but they’re still sitting at -150 odds to make the top four. The Blues are perhaps a risky pick as there will be a lot of squad turnover this Summer. With a reported massive transfer budget from new owner Todd Boehly, Chelsea will certainly try to fill in some of the gaps. They have finished in the top four for four seasons running.

One of the most interesting EPL Player Stats from last season was Heung-Min Son winning the Golden Boot without any penalty goals. The South Korean international played a massive role in helping Tottenham finish in the top four for the first time since 2019.

Now, manager Antonio Conte and chairman Daniel Levy are investing a lot into making Spurs a top four mainstay. They’ve already brought in winger Ivan Perisic and midfielder Yves Bissouma and are linked to a handful of other players. As a result, Spurs have -125 betting odds to make the top four once again.

Strong Contenders

With Erik ten Hag at the helm, Manchester United is entering a new era after a disastrous season. It may take a bit of time to change the culture of the team and players seem to be hesitant to sign. United has failed to sign any players so far this Summer. However, they may be able to seal the deal for midfielder Frenkie de Jong in the coming weeks. The Red Devils have +120 EPL top four odds for the upcoming season but finished sixth last year. Ten Hag is also getting thrown into the deep end relatively early on.

Arsenal technical director Edu Gaspar and manager Mikel Arteta aren’t playing around this Summer. They have responded to their top four heartbreak by hitting the negotiation table early and often. The Gunners have already brought in FC Porto attacking midfielder Fabio Vieira and tied down striker Eddie Nketiah to a new deal. Plus, French international center-back William Saliba is returning from his loan to Marseille a much-improved player.

They are also reportedly interested in bringing in Gabriel Jesus, Lisandro Martinez, Youri Tielemans, and Raphinha to the club. If they’re able to complete even two of those four transfers, it’d greatly improve the squad It is top four or bust for Arteta and Arsenal this season but +200 odds suggest it could be an uphill battle.

Longshot Contenders

Even longshots have teams odds to win EPL. Outside of the traditional “big six” clubs, Newcastle have the best odds to make the top four, at +800. Under Eddie Howe, Newcastle looked like a completely different team in the second half of last season. This Summer’s transfer budget is smaller than expected but the Magpies are expected to continue to invest in the squad.

West Ham has overachieved the last couple of seasons but has a talented squad. They’re playing European football this season, albeit in the Conference League. Thursday night matches may hurt their top-four chances a bit. However, they did complete the signing of highly-rated defender Nayef Aguerd and midfielder Declan Rice looks set to stay. The Hammers sit at +1200 odds to make the Premier League top four.

Steven Gerrard’s Aston Villa have had an interesting offseason so far. Villa completed the signings of Sevilla CB Diego Carlos, Marseille midfielder Boubacar Kamara and signed Phillippe Coutinho on a permanent basis. Keeping Douglas Luiz would mean that they are in a prime position to contend for Europe. So, +1400 top four odds look intriguing here.

Leicester City had a subpar season in 2021-22 but still managed to finish eighth. In the two years prior, they were in prime position to make the top four but blew it late in the season. Youri Tielemans is linked with a move away but Leicester is also priced at +1400 to make the top four.

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