2023 UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Odds: Leg 1
Talented Remaining Europa League Field
Last 16 Kicks off Thursday
While the Champions League will grab headlines on Tuesday and Wednesday, Thursday is all about the Europa League. We’ve reached the round of 16 stage of the competition and there are plenty of powerhouses still remaining. Among the favorites to win the competition are teams like Arsenal, Manchester United, AS Roma and Juventus. We’ll take a look at all of the UEFA Round of 16 odds and preview this week’s first leg matchups.
Matches of the Week:
Sporting vs Arsenal
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Arsenal flexed their Premier League title credentials over the weekend with a comeback for the ages. Incredibly, they scored three unanswered goals in under 30 minutes vs. Bournemouth after falling behind 2-0. Reiss Nelson’s 97th minute volley winner inspired an outpouring of emotion and the Emirates hadn’t been that energetic for a very long time.
Sporting are -140 favorites to cover the spread and win or draw the match.
Luckily for Sporting, they’ll host Arsenal in the first leg of the round of 16. Portuguese giants Sporting defeated Midtjylland 5-1 on aggregate in the Europa League Playoff. Defender Sebastian Coates scored in both legs but it was Paulinho who scored the game’s only goal in the 1-0 win over Portimonense on Saturday.
In a match between some of the best European teams, Arsenal are ½-goal road favorites. The Gunners, who have won four straight matches, come in at +110 ATS and moneyline odds. Arsenal also finished first in Group A with a 4-1-1 record and Mikel Arteta rarely started all of his key players in the group stage.
With Arsenal’s title challenge imminent and squad rotation necessary, it’ll be interesting to see who Arteta decides to hand minutes. With this in mind, Sporting are -140 favorites to cover the spread and win or draw the match. The hosts, who are in fourth in the Portuguese League, also show +250 odds to win the match. A draw displays the same +250 odds as well.
The last time these teams met was in the 2018 Europa League group stage. Arsenal managed a 1-0 victory in Lisbon and drew with Sporting 0-0 at the Emirates. Both of those matches went under 2½ goals and the under shows -125 odds once again.
It’s imperative that Sporting don’t lose this match to give themselves a chance to advance. However, Arsenal have been similarly excellent both at home and on the road this season. They have the EPL’s best away record, at 10-1-2. Meanwhile, Sporting are 9-2 at home in Liga NOS but went just 1-1-1 at the Estadio Jose Alvalade in the Champions League group stage.
AS Roma vs Real Sociedad
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AS Roma bounced back from Tuesday’s defeat against Cremonese to defeat Juventus 1-0 on Sunday. Gianluca Mancini converted a long range effort to down La Vecchia Signora. Roma also bounced back from a 1-0 deficit in the Europa League playoff and beat RB Salzburg 2-0 in the second leg.
Their Europa League round of 16 opponents, Real Sociedad, drew 0-0 with Cadiz on Friday. However, they also finished ahead of Manchester United in the Group E Europa League standings. Roma host the first leg and enter the match as +115 ATS and moneyline favorites.
Recall that Jose Mourinho’s Roma won last year’s UEFA Europa Conference League. Mourinho’s teams are notoriously difficult to beat over the course of two legs and he won this competition with Manchester United in 2016-17. Meanwhile, Real Sociedad have been in poor form lately, with just one win in their last seven matches. Still, Sociedad +½ comes in at -145 odds here even if they only show +270 odds to win the match. David Silva recently returned from injury for the visitors and key winger Mikel Oyarzabal is looking dangerous again.
Roma’s key players are all healthy. Expect Mourinho to trot out midfielder Bryan Cristante for the full 90, or close to it, as he’s suspended for Roma’s Sunday Serie A match vs. Sassuolo. Paulo Dybala has been Roma’s main threat on offense and he scored the goal that pushed Roma past RB Salzburg in the playoff.
A draw would benefit Sociedad more than Roma here and it is priced at +225 odds. Both defenses have often been excellent but over two goals display a -120 price.
Manchester United vs Real Betis
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Liverpool humiliated Manchester United 7-0 on Sunday. It’s the worst Premier League defeat in Manchester United history and joint-heaviest defeat in club history. The Red Devils shipped six goals in the second half alone and looked demoralized. It’s incredible how much difference a week makes.
Prior to the defeat, United won the EFL Cup over Newcastle and knocked Barcelona out of the Europa League. Now, Erik ten Hag and Man U need to pick the pieces up quickly as they host Real Betis on Thursday.
Betis managed a scoreless draw vs. Real Madrid on Sunday and are currently three points outside of La Liga’s top four. Manchester United are expected to put their massive defeat behind them here as they’re 1½-goal favorites. While United come in at +115 UEFA Round of 16 odds to cover, they’re -240 moneyline favorites. .
This is the first-ever meeting between the two sides and Betis sit at -145 odds to keep the match within a one-goal margin. Betis were nearly flawless in the group stage, with five wins and a draw but they’re +600 underdogs here. A draw is also relatively unlikely, at +385 odds.
While Betis leading scorer Borja Iglesias is available, Nabil Fekir is out with a long-term injury. Meanwhile, Sergio Canales is day-to-day and sat out of the clash with Real Madrid. Manchester United’s Christian Eriksen and Anthony Martial are set to miss out on Thursday.
Notably, Manchester United are unbeaten in the first leg of their last eight UEFA knockout matchups. Meanwhile, Betis have won just one of their last seven knockout stage matches in the Europa League. Regardless, under three goals sit at -135 odds for Thursday’s match.
Juventus vs SC Freiburg
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Juventus fell to AS Roma 1-0 on Sunday and face SC Freiburg on Thursday for the first time ever. In fact, this is the first time Freiburg are coming up against Italian opposition in a UEFA competition. Freiburg have also never played in the knockout stage of a UEFA competition before.
Despite their lack of experience on this stage, Freiburg were one of the top teams in the group stage. They went unbeaten, with four wins and two draws, and conceded just three goals. Meanwhile, Juve enter this first leg round of 16 matchup having lost just one of their last 16 Europa League matches.
Unsurprisingly, Juventus are -155 favorites heading into Thursday’s match. They defeated Nantes 4-1 in the Europa League playoff, on aggregate, as Angel di Maria scored a hat trick in the second league. Di Maria is a key player for Juventus, along with top scorer Dusan Vlahovic.
Midfielder Paul Pogba is also back in the fold after a long absence due to injury. Juve -1 shows +110 odds, while Freiburg +1 is implied to be more likely, at -140 odds. The visitors are +475 underdogs but have outperformed expectations consistently over the last few seasons.
However, Freiburg haven’t been great on the road this season. They’ve posted a -7 goal difference in 12 Bundesliga matches away from home and five wins. A draw would be an excellent result for them and it sits at +280 odds. Meanwhile, La Vecchia Signora have conceded just three goals in their last three matches, in all competitions. This first leg could be a low scoring one, as under 2½ goals display -150 odds.
What Else to Watch For
Union Berlin are in third place in the Bundesliga and knocked Ajax out of the Europa League. They could be a dark horse candidate to win the competition and take on Belgian side Union Saint-Gilloise on Thursday. The UEFA Round of 16 odds price home side Union Berlin as -155 favorites to win the match.
Bayer Leverkusen started the season in the Champions League but have had an up and down year. Their talented attacking corps could cause problems for Group H winners Ferencvaros. Bayer are 1½-goal favorites for the first leg and come in at -310 moneyline odds. Ferencvaros have pulled off a couple of surprises in the competition already and could be an intriguing pick, at +800 odds.
Shakhtar Donetsk knocked out Rennes in penalties in the Europa League playoff and host Dutch club Feyenoord in the round of 16. Feyenoord reached the final of the Conference League last year and are -145 favorites to cover the spread in this pick’em.
Sevilla won the Europa League three times in a row from 2016 to 2018 but are in the midst of a brutal season. Sevilla are in 17th place in La Liga but still managed to knock out PSV in the Europa League playoff. Now, they’ll take on Turkish giants Fenerbahce on Thursday and Sevilla are -140 favorites.
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