CONCACAF Nations League: Mexico vs Jamaica Match Preview
El Tri Host Reggae Boyz
Group A Decider
Jamaica need to pull off the nearly impossible and defeat Mexico at the Estadio Azteca to advance to the CONCACAF Nations League semifinals. With Mexico’s 2-0 win over Suriname on Thursday, El Tri took control of Group A. They enter Sunday’s decisive match vs. Jamaica on seven points, with two wins and a draw. Jamaica are also unbeaten, with one win and two draws for five points. The Reggae Boyz have never won on Mexican soil but we’ll take a look at their chances in our Mexico vs Jamaica match preview.
CONCACAF Nations League
Mexico vs Jamaica
Date, time:
Location: Estadio Azteca, Mexico City, Mexico
TV: TUDN
Head-to-Head
Mexico and Jamaica have played in some close games recently. The last Mexico vs Jamaica match finished all square at 1-1 last June. Leon Bailey scored within five minutes for hosts Jamaica but Luis Romo netted the equalizer.
Mexico defeated Jamaica twice in Qatar 2022 World Cup qualifying, by 2-1 scorelines in each. Still, the series is level in the last six meetings. During that span, both teams have two wins and there have been two draws. Only two of those matches have finished with three goals or more and all were decided by a one-goal margin or finished level.
Cocca’s Tenure Starts With a Win
- Standings: 2-1-0, 7 pts, 1st Group A
- Key Injuries: D Hector Moreno, M Tecatito Corona, F Alexis Vega
Mexico’s performance on Thursday vs. Suriname wasn’t great but El Tri managed to pick up a 2-0 win. Following Tata Martino’s departure, Diego Cocca took over as manager and his tenure got off to a winning start. He didn’t come close to his best XI in the match vs. Suriname. So, Mexico’s stars should feature vs. Jamaica.
El Tri have not been themselves over the last few years, though, and their performance at the World Cup exemplified that. Finishing third in their group, Mexico failed to qualify for the round of 16 for the first time since 1978.
Still, they are in pole position to advance to the CONCACAF Nations League semifinals and it helps that they’re playing at home. Mexico haven’t lost a home match since 2018 and also haven’t lost at the Estadio Azteca since 2013.
They also sealed qualification to the 2023 Gold Cup with the win over Suriname, guaranteeing a top-two finish in their Nations League group. The top eight CONCACAF Nations League teams from the A bracket will participate at this Summer’s Gold Cup, along with eight others.
Mexico managed to win their first match of 2023 but it’s worth reminding bettors that they went just 9-6-5 in 2022. Granted, they only played five matches in Mexico in 2022 and didn’t concede a single goal at home.
Players like Raul Jimenez and Chucky Lozano didn’t feature on Thursday night and will give Mexico more of an attacking punch on Sunday. Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez got a chance to start in front of Jimenez but skied his penalty vs. Suriname. Ajax midfielder Edson Alvarez is another key player to watch for on El Tri.
Jamaica Need Signature Win
- Standings: 1-2-0, 5 pts, 2nd Group A
- Key Injuries: GK Andre Blake, F Michail Antonio
It’s been a rough couple of years for the Jamaican National team. Results have been few and far between and road wins have been even rarer. They failed to win any of their eight matches outside of Jamaica in 2022 and lost and drew a pair of recent friendlies to Trinidad and Tobago.
The friendlies should be taken with a grain of salt, though, as many of Jamaica’s foreign-based players were not yet available for selection. Premier League stars Leon Bailey, Bobby Reid, and Ethan Pinnock could all feature in this Mexico vs Jamaica match.
Jamaica coach Heimir Hallgrimsson, who was appointed last September, is still looking for his first win as Jamaica boss. He did lead Iceland to a shock Euro 2016 quarterfinals appearance and this will be his first competitive match in charge.
Nothing short of a win will do for Jamaica when it comes to making the quarterfinals. Although they have also sealed qualification to the Gold Cup and can’t finish lower than second in CONCACAF Nations League Group A. Junior Flemmings leads the Reggae Boyz with two goals in this Nations League campaign but he isn’t in the squad for this match.
West Ham striker Michail Antonio has also missed out on a call up due to injury. That means a lot of the attacking responsibility could fall on Leon Bailey’s shoulders. The Aston Villa winger scored the last time Jamaica took on Mexico and has a lot of quality. Shamar Nicholson, Bobby Reid and Cory Burke are other options to round out Jamaica’s forward line.
Match Analysis and Odds
Because Jamaica aren’t expected to get a result here, they don’t have much to lose. Still, their best bet may be trying to get numbers back on defense and hope for a goal on the counter attack on the other end. The Nations League odds list Mexico as one-goal favorites and El Tri fans will be expecting a win.
Jamaica managed to get a draw at the Estadio Azteca in 2013 but they’ve lost in all of their other matches in Mexico. The Reggae Boyz come in as +800 underdogs needing all three points to go through.
El Tri sit at -340 odds to get a second win in four days. Interestingly enough, this is the first high-stakes game for either coach, at least with their current teams. So, tactically it’s difficult to say how either coach’s gameplan will evolve as the game progresses. Diego Cocca did set Mexico up in a 4-2-3-1 formation on Thursday, which is certainly more defensive than the more popular 4-3-3. Mexico have the personnel to be able to go at teams but they’ve often played conservatively over the last few years.
A draw will be enough for Mexico to go on to the semifinals and it is priced at +390 odds here. Both teams have also scored the last three times these teams have met. Perhaps it’s not all that surprising that over 2½ goals come in at -125 odds for the match. An early goal from Mexico would certainly change the complexion of the game, as Jamaica would need to come out of their shell and score two goals to go through.
Mexico haven’t conceded a goal at home since October 2021, though, and just one of their last five home games has finished with three goals. In their last five competitive matches, Mexico have also averaged just one goal per game.
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