Marseille vs Benfica Preview: Lots Left for UEL QF

Benfica Favored as Marseille is on a Losing Skid

Decisive Second Leg at the Velodrome

Heading into this match at the Velodrome, hosts Marseille trail 2-1 and are on a five-match losing streak. After Benfica got knocked out of the Taca de Portugal and lost ground in the Primeira Liga in the span of a few days, they’ve now won their last two games. Now, Benfica just need a draw to advance to their first European Semifinal for a decade. Meanwhile, Marseille desperately need to get their season on track as they’ve floundered in recent weeks.

In our Marseille vs Benfica preview, we’ll run through the odds from Thursday’s decisive Europa League Quarter-Final second leg.

OM Marseille vs Benfica BEN

Date, time:
Location: Stade Velodrome, Marseille, France
Stream: Paramount+

Marseille vs Benfica Head-to-Head

Marseille and Benfica met last week for the first time since 2010. Benfica went up in the first half as Rafa Silva poked in a right-footed shot. Angel Di Maria doubled the Eagles’ lead in the second half by finishing off a cross from David Neres. All-time Europa League leading scorer, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang managed to get a goal back for Marseille on a counter-attack but Benfica won 2-1.

Plenty of Europa League predictions had Benfica winning, as they were -120 favorites. Marseille vs Benfica previews note that Benfica are now 3-1-1 vs. Marseille all-time and unbeaten in the last four meetings. Both teams have scored in four of the five matches between the sides.

Marseille Rest Ahead of Second Leg

The French Football Federation postponed Marseille’s Ligue 1 match over the weekend so they could focus on the Europa League. It gives Marseille more time to reflect on their shocking five game losing skid, which started in the second leg of the Europa League Round of 16. After defeating Villarreal 4-0 in the first leg, Marseille fell 3-1 in Spain but still managed to advance. Since then, they’ve lost three matches in Ligue 1 to Rennes, PSG and Lille and fell last week to Benfica.

On their losing streak, Marseille have conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game. They’ve also found the net just three times during that span. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored four of Marseille’s last five goals, in all competitions, and he leads the UEL with 10 goals this season. Jonathan Clauss and Amine Harit lead the way with six assists apiece as well. Marseille finished in second place in the Group B Europa League table and they have a 5-3-3 record in the Europa League this season, overall.

Last week, left wing back Quentin Merlin went off injured and he’ll miss out on Thursday’s match. Both Clauss and Ismaila Sarr are dealing with hamstring injuries, which make them unlikely to suit up vs. Benfica. Bamo Meite and Valentin Rongier are also out for this one. Despite their losing streak, Marseille are just one goal behind and can certainly pull this one back.

Uncover Exclusive Picks & Predictions From Our Experts.

Benfica Back on Track

Benfica took down Moreirense 3-0 in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Sunday. Roger Schmidt made eight changes to his lineup from the 2-1 midweek win over Benfica and a number of those players stepped up. Tiago Gouveia provided two assists as Orkun Kokcu, Tomas Araujo and Benjamin Rollheiser all got on the scoresheet. Benfica’s stars should be well rested for the Europa League return leg at Marseille.

The Europa League odds currently price Benfica as +1000 dark horses to win the competition. Incredibly, they’ve lost in their last 11 appearances in European finals. Benfica still have a long way to go to reach that stage but they have played well on the road in the UEL. Since dropping from the Champions League to the Europa League, Benfica haven’t conceded a goal in two road matches.

In the Round of 16, Benfica were level with Rangers after one leg. Still, Benfica managed a 3-2 aggregate victory as they won 1-0 at the Ibrox Stadium. Rafa Silva scored the winner in that match and he’s scored two Europa League goals this season. Meanwhile, Angel Di Maria has found the net four times in five matches and his return to Portugal has been successful. Only Juan Bernat is listed as doubtful on the visitors’ injury report.

Marseille vs Benfica Match Analysis & Odds

This one could certainly go either way but Benfica are -280 favorites to go on and advance to the next round. Marseille are +220 underdogs to book their place in the Semifinal but Marseille vs Benfica previews note that OM are +140 favorites to win this match. Heading into Thursday’s match with a one-goal lead, Benfica would be satisfied with a draw.

A deadlock is priced at +260 odds and Benfica will do their best to stay unbeaten on the road in the knockout stage. Bettors should also note that Marseille are unbeaten at the Velodrome in the UEL this season but did lose 2-0 to PSG there recently. Four of Marseille’s five matches on their losing streak have been away from home.

Benfica have had their ups and downs recently but the odds imply they have over a 33 percent chance to win this match without the vig. They are +180 underdogs on the night and Benfica pk comes in at even odds. Marseille pk sits at -130, while over 2.5, 3 goals show -115 odds. OM haven’t lost back-to-back games at home since November 2022 and it’ll take a win for them to turn this one around.


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