Croatia Need Win to Stay Alive Croatia vs Italy
Euro Odds Imply Close Match on Monday

Draw Sufficient for Italy to Finish in Second Place
The Group of Death has lived up to its moniker at Euro 2024 so far. Croatia, with just one point through two matches, are on the brink of elimination. Meanwhile, Italy need a result to ensure they move on to the knockout stage.
Croatia and Italy will meet in a high-stakes group stage closer on Monday. Croatia (0-1-1) need to win to stay alive, while a draw for Italy (1-1) will be enough to finish in second place in Group B. Read on for our match preview and a detailed discussion of the Croatia vs Italy Euro odds. Currently, Italy are edging out Croatia as +135 moneyline favorites.
Croatia vs Italy
Date & Time: Monday, June 24th, 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, Germany
Croatia vs Italy Head-to-Head
The last match between the Italy national football team and Croatia was just over nine years ago. In Euro 2016 qualifiers, Italy and Croatia drew 1-1 in both meetings. This is the first opportunity to bet on the Croatia vs Italy Euro odds since 2012, when the sides also drew 1-1 in Group C.
Italy were +125 favorites for that match, but a draw (+220) was the winning moneyline pick. Croatia are one of the few teams with a positive all-time record against Italy. Incredibly, Croatia are 3-5-1 in games versus the Azzurri all-time. Italy’s lone win over Croatia was in 1942.
Croatia Struggling on Defense
Croatia feared for the worst when they conceded 11 minutes into their second group-stage match against Albania. A loss likely would have eliminated Croatia from knockout stage contention. However, they fought back in the second half as Andrej Kramaric equalized, and Albania’s Klaus Gjasula scored an own goal to put Croatia ahead. Gjasula scored at the other end of the field in stoppage time to cap off a thrilling 2-2 match. Croatia have now taken just one point from their first two games of Euro 2024.
In their first match, Croatia fell 3-0 to Spain despite having some decent opportunities. The Vatreni are undoubtedly hurt by not having a proven prolific striker at the international level. Plus, they haven’t been immune to Euro injuries, as winger Nikola Vlasic is out of the squad. Croatia’s midfield is still their calling card, with Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic.
Coach Zlatko Dalic made three changes to their starting XI on Wednesday, as Bruno Petkovic, Ivan Perisic and Josip Juranovic came in for Ante Budimir, Marin Pongracic and Josip Stanisic, respectively. Croatia looked like a much more dangerous side with Perisic making bombing runs forward from left back. However, defense is still a concern, as they’ve conceded five goals through two matches.
Italy Second Best in Match Against Spain
Spain outclassed Italy on Thursday and the Azzurri were lucky to concede just one goal. Gianluigi Donnarumma, the Euro 2020 Player of the Tournament, bailed out Italy on multiple occasions but he couldn’t keep out an unlucky second half own goal from Riccardo Calafiori. The fact that Italy can look pedestrian for 90 minutes but only lose 1-0 may bode well for them.
Italy have built their identity on defense and they can stay competitive with any team in this competition. In the first match, Italy also fell behind to Albania but goals from Inter Milan duo Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella powered the Azzurri to a 2-1 comeback win.
Since Italy hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Albania, they only need a draw to finish in second place in Group B. The opening UEFA Euro odds listed Italy at +1400 to win the tournament and they’re now at +2000. While Spain’s attacking prowess was plain to see, Italy don’t have game changers in the mold of a Lamine Yamal or Nico Williams.
Croatia vs Italy Match Analysis & Odds
Croatia’s task is clear, it’s win or go home for them. They missed an opportunity when they took on Albania and were poor against Spain but they can erase their errors with a victory. Italy can’t afford to lose, as it would likely spell the end of the road for them.
Right now, the most likely outcome is an Italy win, at +135 odds. Still, Italy’s previous record against Croatia is a cause for concern. This is a match Croatia, who are +215 underdogs, always seem to get up for.
The Croatia vs Italy Euro odds also price a draw at +225 and that would play right into Italy’s hands. We expect a measured approach from Italy and few risks, which makes it unsurprising that under 2.5 goals sit at -112 odds. Bettors can also take Croatia pk, +0.5 at -120 or Italy pk, -0.5 at even odds. The question mark hanging over both teams right now is who is going to score their goals?