Potential Mbappe Return as France Face Poland
France vs Poland Preview: Les Bleus Fighting for First

Poland First Team to be Eliminated
With last Friday’s 3-1 loss to Austria, Poland became the first team eliminated from Euro 2024. On Tuesday, Robert Lewandowski could play his final match in a major tournament as Poland take on France. France drew vs. the Netherlands last Friday and may need a big win to clinch first place in Group D. Les Bleus’ offense has struggled without Kylian Mbappé and it remains to be seen if he’ll return from a broken nose in time for this one. We’ll discuss the likelihood of his return and the odds in our France vs Poland preview.
France vs Poland
Date & Time: Tuesday, June 25th, 12:00 p.m. ET
Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
France vs Poland Head-to-Head
France and Poland also met in the round of 16 of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Les Bleus won 3-1 as Olivier Giroud scored and Kylian Mbappé’s stats were two goals and an assist. The pregame soccer betting odds listed France as -330 favorites.
Since the turn of the century, France and Poland have only met four times. France are an unbeaten 3-1-0 in those games as they’ve outscored Poland 5-1. Poland last defeated France in 1982 and haven’t won any of the eight meetings since then.
Deschamps Will Pick France’s Strongest Team
No France vs Poland preview would be complete without discussing Kylian Mbappé’s latest status. After breaking his nose in last Monday’s 1-0 win against Austria, he is reportedly eager to play and took part in a training scrimmage on Saturday versus a German academy side. Coach Didier Deschamps said he’ll pick a team which will “ensure qualification”. One can only presume that means one with Mbappé in it, as France’s attack looked toothless without him.
Without Mbappé in the lineup, France drew 0-0 against the Netherlands. Les Bleus could have lost, had Xavi Simons’ goal not been ruled out for an offside interference on French keeper Mike Maignan. France created chances but didn’t have a killer instinct. The only goal France have scored, through two matches, has been an Austrian own goal, created by an Mbappé cross.
Even if France aren’t scoring, they can still grind out results thanks to a stellar defense. France have kept four straight clean sheets, in all competitions. France will likely qualify for the last 16 no matter what happens on Tuesday. However, the match is incredibly important for their standings. Currently level on four points with the Netherlands, goal difference will decide who wins the group if they both win.
Key Stats | France | Poland |
---|---|---|
Matches Played | 2 | 2 |
Won | 1 | 0 |
Draw | 1 | 0 |
Lost | 0 | 2 |
Goals | 1 | 2 |
Total Attempts | 30 | 26 |
Passing Accuracy (%) | 89.5 | 81 |
Attacks | 102 | 62 |
Balls Recovered | 78 | 70 |
Saves | 7 | 8 |
Yellow Cards | 2 | 4 |
Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
Poland Playing for Pride
No matter what happens on Tuesday, Poland will finish in last place in the Group D UEFA Euro standings. Poland lost 2-1 to the Netherlands in their opening match and fell 3-1 to Austria in game two. All-time leading scorer Robert Lewandowski missed the first match due to an injury and came on as a substitute in the second. He was reportedly fully fit to play the second match but coach Michal Probierz went with Krzysztof Piatek and Adam Buksa up top.
Piatek scored the equalizer but when Lewandowski came on as a sub, Poland conceded twice and failed to score. It’s unclear who Probierz will start on Tuesday but Poland don’t have anything but pride to play for now. Given this could be Lewandowski’s last major tournament match, we expect him to get the nod up front.
Wojciech Szczesny can only do so much in goal, as Poland seem to concede lots of chances. Poland have conceded in their last four games and don’t look like they can stop top tier opposition.
France vs Poland Match Analysis & Odds
This is a match France need to win, and handily at that, to make sure they avoid a top team in the round of 16. Our France vs Poland preview notes Les Bleus are -350 favorites for Tuesday’s match. France have conceded just two goals in their last six matches against Poland.
A draw sits at +475 and it would ensure France finishes in the top two places in Group D even if it’d be far from ideal. Meanwhile, Poland are +900 underdogs to get their first win over France for more than 40 years.
A “No” on Both teams to score displays -135 odds and under three goals for the match shows the same. The best price on France -1.5 is -105 at the moment, and we don’t think it’s a bad bet for Tuesday’s match.
Bettors could take Poland +1.5 at -110 but this could be the match where things start to come together for Les Bleus. N’Golo Kante has been brilliant for France, and with Aurelien Tchouameni back, Kante can roam further up the pitch and create chances.
Team | Handicap |
---|---|
France | -1½ -118 |
Poland | +1½ -102 |