Turkey Already Through
Given Wales’ 1-1 draw at Armenia on Saturday, Wales need a win vs. Turkey on Tuesday to have a chance of automatically qualifying for Euro 2024. Turkey have already qualified for next Summer’s Euros, which means the motivation should be on Wales’ side here. Even if Wales win, a Croatia win vs. Armenia will mean that Wales’ only opportunity to qualify will be through the play-offs. For this match between two of the top teams in Group D, let’s preview the Wales vs. Turkey H2H odds.
Wales vs. Turkey
Location: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff, Wales
Wales and Turkey met back in June on the UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying schedule. Wales went down to ten men in the first half, as Joe Morrell got sent off. Mehmet Umut Nayir and Arda Guler got on the scoresheet in the second half as Turkey picked up a 2-0 win. At Euro 2020, Wales defeated Turkey in the group stage, by the same scoreline. In the all-time Wales vs. Turkey H2H, Wales are 4-1-3 vs. Turkey.
Wales Drop Down to Third Place
Following an impressive 2-1 win vs. Croatia, Wales left the October international break in second place in Group D. Rob Page’s side knew that two wins in their last two UEFA Euro qualifiers games would mean they’d automatically qualify for Euro 2024. However, they dropped down to third place in the group with Saturday’s 1-1 draw vs. Armenia.
Wales fell behind in the fifth minute as Armenia’s Lucas Zelarayan scored. They equalized on an own goal just before halftime and the match finished all square. Now, Wales are two points behind Croatia, who are expected to defeat Armenia at home on Tuesday. Since Gareth Bale’s retirement, Wales have found it difficult to generate offense.
In Euro qualifiers, they’ve scored just nine goals in seven matches. Harry Wilson leads the side, with three goals, and he’s the only Welsh player with more than one goal in qualifiers. Page can call on Tottenham Hotspur’s Brennan Johnson or Bournemouth’s Kieffer Moore up top. Johnson is a more dynamic player and expect him to play a role here.
Turkey Coming off Win vs. Germany
It’s been an excellent month for Turkey. In October, they defeated Croatia in a road match for the first time in their history. Baris Alper Yilmaz scored the game’s only goal in the impressive win. Then, Turkey sealed qualification to Euro 2024 with a dominant 4-0 win over Latvia. Cenk Tosun scored twice off the bench in the win.
A few days ago, Turkey took on Germany in a friendly and came away with a 3-2 win in Berlin. That was without captain and talisman Hakan Calhanoglu. Turkey are now 3-0 under manager Vincenzo Montella and could be a team to watch at next Summer’s Euro. If Turkey get a point in this match, they’ll finish first in the UEFA Euro qualifiers standings no matter what happens in the Croatia vs. Armenia match.
Turkey have scored nearly two goals per match in qualifiers and are 5-1-1 in seven games. They’ve gotten on the scoresheet in six of their seven matches as Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Tosun lead the team with two goals. Along with Calhanoglu, the Crescent-Stars are missing Cengiz Under and Arda Guler.
Match Analysis & Odds
Although Turkey won the reverse fixture 2-0, the Wales vs. Turkey H2H odds list hosts Wales as +115 favorites. Turkey have no particular motivation to win this match but they have played excellently under Montella. Plus, bettors shouldn’t discount the significance of Turkey defeating Germany on German soil. Turkey pk, +0.5 may be an intriguing pick at even odds but Wales do know that they need a win.
Wales pk, -0.5 comes in at -115 odds and they’re 2-1 at home in qualifiers. They lost 4-2 to Armenia in Cardiff back in June and they have not exactly been consistent over the last few years. Wales are on a three-game winning streak heading into this one, though, and their last loss was to Turkey in June.
A draw is priced at +240 odds here but only one of the previous eight meetings have finished all square. Over 2.5 goals display -125 odds but Turkey have only conceded one goal in their last four qualifiers.