2023 Spanish Grand Prix Odds: Red Bull favored again in Barcelona

After a thrilling finish to the Monaco Grand Prix, Formula 1 heads to Spain

An exciting finish in Monte Carlo for the Monaco Grand Prix kicked off the first European double-header with a flourish. The rain made for a chaotic order past the top two. Max Verstappen took his fourth win of the F1 season despite the dynamic conditions and continued Red Bull’s perfect streak to start 2023.

The F1 standings stayed the same at the top after Monte Carlo. Verstappen leads from teammate Sergio Pérez, but his lead is now 39 points. Fernando Alonso of Aston Martin, third in the F1 standings, closed the gap to Pérez in Monaco to just 12 points.

This week comes another challenge: the Spanish Grand Prix. The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya has had some exciting races in its three-decade history of F1 races. Verstappen dramatically won last year’s race. Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari broke down on lap 27, and Verstappen overtook Pérez later in the race for the win. Pérez was instructed to let Verstappen by because they were on different strategies. Pérez later called this unfair.

With how the first few races have gone in 2023, we’ll unlikely see a close battle for the most F1 points between Verstappen and Leclerc. But there could be a chance for some changes close behind the Red Bulls. Here’s your primer for the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix odds.

Red Bulls, Alonso top the odds for victory

The top three drivers in the F1 standings are also favored to win. Verstappen (-275) has the best F1 odds to repeat in Spain. He’s at the top of his game after a dominant weekend in Monaco. His qualifying performance is one of the best in recent Formula 1 history, and he’ll have the best car in Barcelona once again.

Pérez’s podium last season was the best performance he’s had in Barcelona. He’s finished in the top five three other times in 11 races (2021, 2020, 2017). He’s raced there more than almost any other track on the F1 schedule. At +300, he’s a solid bet if something happens to Verstappen. Otherwise, it’ll be hard for him to catch his teammate.

Alonso (+1000) finished second last time out after an incredibly close qualifying session in Monaco. He never challenged Verstappen for the win, but the street circuit offered little chance for overtaking. He may find it better in Spain. There are larger DRS zones and a wider track. The Aston Martin looks good in corners of variable speeds but could be better than the Red Bull.

Sunday’s forecast for Barcelona currently shows a 42% chance of rain. If that comes through during the race, Alonso could be more of a threat for victory.

It’d take a failure, crash, or horribly-timed safety car for Verstappen to fall to the likes of Leclerc (+2800) or Mercedes drivers George Russell and Lewis Hamilton (both +3300). The Mercedes upgrade could provide a bump in performance, but it’d be a shock to see them on the top step on merit.

Pole position and podium odds for the Spanish Grand Prix

Unsurprisingly, Verstappen’s also favored for pole position at -165. The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya requires the cars to be a mix of quick in a straight line and fast in low-, medium-, and high-speed corners.

This means the Red Bull RB19’s minor issue of heating the front tires for qualifying sessions will be less pronounced. Its pace through all those areas means it will be far from the field than in Baku or Monaco.

Leclerc (+350) and Pérez (+400) have the next-best odds for pole position. It’d be a surprise to see either top the grid for Sunday’s race because of Ferrari’s pace and Pérez’s prior performances in Spain.

Oddsmakers favor another Verstappen, Pérez, and Alonso podium (-500, -275, -190). This is where things could get interesting. We couldn’t see the actual pace of the upgraded Mercedes package in Monaco. Hamilton (+250) and Russell (+350) could see themselves in contention for the second-fastest car on Sunday. Of the two, go with Hamilton for a spoiler of the Verstappen-Pérez-Alonso trio. He’s won six Spanish Grand Prix races and even took fifth last year in a down season for Mercedes.

Other bets worth considering for the Spanish Grand Prix

The lower F1 points positions have been a close fight for most of 2023. Eighteen of the 20 drivers have scored at least one point this season.

Oddsmakers have 11 drivers favored for a points finish: Verstappen (-900), Alonso (-800), Pérez (-800), Leclerc (-700), Russell (-700), Hamilton (-700), Carlos Sainz of Ferrari (-450), Esteban Ocon of Alpine (-350), Lance Stroll of Aston Martin (-350), Pierre Gasly of Alpine (-350), and Lando Norris of McLaren.

There are only a few good options outside those drivers for points finishes in the Spanish Grand Prix. Yuki Tsunoda (+225) saw his streak of 10th- or 11th-place finishes end in Monaco. Spain could be a tough test for his AlphaTauri.

Haas drivers Kevin Magnussen (+250) and Nico Hulkenberg (+250) were disappointed in Monaco by finishing 19th and 17th, respectively. Of the two, Magnussen’s been a more potent driver in Barcelona. His career track record has an average finish of 12th in Spain. That’s the best mark of almost any other circuit on the F1 calendar (except for Melbourne). He could put together a bounce-back weekend for Haas.

Oscar Piastri (+300) took home a point last time out in Monaco. The rookie’s raced well at Barcelona in lower categories. He won the F3 sprint race there in 2020 and podiumed in all four Formula Renault Eurocup races he competed in from 2018-2019. With momentum from Monaco and a bit of luck, he could score a point again for McLaren.

Predictions for the 2023 Spanish Grand Prix

After one of the best chances for a driver and team to dethrone Verstappen and Red Bull, it’ll likely be a return to form in Spain. That combination looks too strong to overcome in qualifying or the race.

The chance of rain on Sunday could jumble things up. It’ll likely make being the front-running driver more important. That’s why we think a podium of Verstappen, Alonso, and Hamilton could be in the cards for the second time this season. Look for Magnussen and Piastri to grab a few points as well.

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