2024 Belgian GP Odds: Pole Position, Verstappen Not the Fave!

After Resounding Win in Hungary, McLaren Takes Lead in Odds With Lando Norris

McLaren's adaptable car gives Norris the edge after a strategic Hungary race.
Verstappen (+220) aims to end his 3-race win drought.
Piastri's win boosts his F1 ranking, closing in on Verstappen and Norris.

July 23, 2024 405 4 minutes readF1 News

2024 Belgian GP Odds: Winner, pole position picks with Verstappen no longer the favorite — Jakub Porzycki / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP

Race winner
Pole position
Predictions

For just the second time in 2024, McLaren won a Formula 1 Grand Prix race. Second-year man Oscar Piastri passed Lando Norris late to overcome a strategy blunder and win his first career Grand Prix race in the sport.

McLaren was the fastest car throughout the weekend in Hungary for the first time and hold a slight advantage this week. The 2024 Belgian GP Odds reflect that Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is not the favorite for the first time all F1 season.

Check out the latest Belgian GP updates and betting tips at Point Spreads!

2024 Belgian GP Odds: Race winner

Lando Norris (+125)

McLaren surprisingly gave Norris the undercut in Hungary, which saw him lead most of the final stint of the race. It came down to the closing laps but he let Piastri by to make up for the team’s strategic mishap. Both drivers were good enough for victory but Piastri had the advantage.

This week, he leads the F1 odds for the first time in his career. McLaren’s car is the quickest on average and more adaptable to circuits, as it handled the changing weather conditions in Hungary very well.

Spa-Francorchamps is one of the fastest tracks on the calendar and should suit the McLaren. The package did well at similarly rear-limited tracks like Imola and Barcelona.

Max Verstappen (+220)

Verstappen’s frustrations came through on team radio for much of the Hungarian Grand Prix. A strategy put him on the back foot for much of the race and late contact with Lewis Hamilton knocked him out of podium contention.

Despite finishing fifth, he still holds a massive 76-point lead in the F1 drivers’ championship standings.

He should be in a better place this weekend. Red Bull’s aerodynamic abilities should help even with some curb-riding on faster corners. His F1 race results have slipped recently with his longest win drought – three races – since 2021.

Oscar Piastri (+450)

Piastri’s win pushes him up the F1 rankings and these odds to be closer with Verstappen and Norris. His victory came at Norris’ expense but it marked a significant achievement for the former Formula 3 and Formula 2 champion.

It also showcased an improvement in tire management that should make him more of a threat for victory this season. He finished second in the sprint race here last year and should have another good weekend.

George Russell (+1200)

The Mercedes should be quick this weekend. Russell’s qualifying mishap torpedoed his chances at a strong result in the race where Mercedes was the third-fastest car. That should be the case again this weekend but it will be much closer to Red Bull and McLaren.

Mercedes shined at the most recent high-speed track with fast corners in Silverstone. Russell’s raced well in Belgium, including a shocking second-place qualifying performance in a downpour in 2021. He should be in for a better result and that includes fighting for a win.

Lewis Hamilton (+1200)

Hamilton held on after contact with Verstappen for his third podium finish in the last four races, tied for the most on the grid. Like Russell, Hamilton should be closer to the leaders this weekend. Unfortunately, Spa-Francorchamps is one of his worst tracks on the calendar by average finishes.

Multiple DNFs over his long career have outweighed his four victories there but he should be a potential dark horse candidate along with Russell for victory.

Pole position

Lando Norris (+175)

McLaren looks like the best car at the moment and should be the pace-setter again this weekend, especially in qualifying. Norris should be considered the favorite once again.

Max Verstappen (+200)

Verstappen’s qualified outside the front row in back-to-back races for the first time this season. Yes, the Red Bull is arguably faster than the McLaren when set up perfectly, but that is tough to predict. He’s still a threat but less intimidating than the start of this season.

Oscar Piastri (+400)

Piastri’s been close to pole in qualifying this year in Monaco and Hungary. Both of those are slower, more technical circuits than the high-speed Spa-Francorchamps track. It’d be a surprise to see him start from pole this weekend.

Lewis Hamilton (+1000)

Hamilton was just 0.081 seconds off of pole position in Silverstone. That shows the kind of pace he should have this Saturday. At these odds, he’s a great pick.

George Russell (+2000)

Russell is the best value pick of all in these pole position odds. He’s started on pole position in two high-speed tracks this season in Montreal and Silverstone. His proven pace make him a fantastic flyer for pole position on Saturday.

2024 Belgian GP Odds: Predictions

The Belgian Grand Prix is one of the more exciting events on the calendar. The high speeds and overtaking opportunities make for one of the better spectacles in addition to the ever-present threat of rain.

This weekend, we like Russell (+2000) to take pole position but Norris (+125) to get the win. We predict a podium finish of Norris (-400), Verstappen (-175), and Russell (+110). Our points finish picks are: