2024 Monaco GP Odds: Verstappen Still Favored

Despite Close Call in Imola, Verstappen Leads in Monaco

After a sprint weekend at the Miami Grand Prix saw Lando Norris earn his first career victory, the McLaren driver nearly chased down three-time defending F1 champion Max Verstappen for victory last week at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

Red Bull remains the class of the field but, as McLaren’s shown, they could be more vulnerable now than any time in the last 18 months. That’s reflected in the 2024 Monaco GP Odds this week.

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2024 Monaco GP Odds: Race winner

  • Max Verstappen (-200)

Verstappen’s won two of the last three races at the iconic circuit. Last year’s blistering pole lap put him ahead by slim margins but sealed his victory.

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These are some of the worst odds for a victory he’s had this season but at a circuit that emphasizes car control, he’s still the top pick in this F1 schedule.

  • Lando Norris (+550)

Norris would be a two-time winner heading into this weekend if the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix was two laps longer. McLaren’s latest update package has them challenging Red Bull more than before.

His rookie season aside, he’s qualified and finished in the top 10 at every Monaco Grand Prix he’s entered. That’s a solid record but the McLaren’s pace may not suit the slower corners of Monte Carlo.

  • Charles Leclerc (+550)

Leclerc kept his top-four finish streak alive with third place at Imola. He comes to his home race on the F1 schedule with a mixed track record.

He took pole in 2021 and 2022 but failed to convert either to a win. This year could be different given his stronger race pace and trademark qualifying prowess.

Podium finishers

Oddsmakers like Verstappen (-500), Norris (-165), and Leclerc (-165) for the podium places in Monaco this week. But there are a few drivers who could break into the top three.

  • Carlos Sainz (+150)

Sainz’s hot start has cooled with three consecutive fifth-place finishes. This has coincided with a drop to fifth place in the Formula 1 standings.

Ferrari’s poor strategy calls cost him a shot at a podium last year. He’ll be eager to right that wrong and get back to the front.

  • Sergio Perez (+165)

Despite having the best Formula 1 car in the field, Perez could only manage eighth last week. His street circuit prowess could come through this week for one of his better results of the year but his lack of qualifying pace is tough to overlook.

  • Fernando Alonso (+2200)

Alonso’s a huge sleeper this weekend because Aston Martin’s easily the fifth-fastest car on the grid. Last season, Alonso’s incredible performance in qualifying sealed his best result of the year to that point.

The 42-year-old could have another performance like that in him this weekend.

Pole position

The F1 odds are closer for pole position than the win. Verstappen (+185), Norris (+260), and Leclerc (+260) lead the way.

Given track records and performances this season, Verstappen and Leclerc are the frontrunners. One of the two will likely be on pole.

Alonso (+10000) again makes for an intriguing flyer with a very high reward.

Points finishers

Oddsmakers favor 11 drivers for points finishes:

  • Verstappen (-1100)
  • Leclerc (-800)
  • Sainz (-800)
  • Norris (-800)
  • Perez (-800)
  • Oscar Piastri (-750)
  • George Russell (-600)
  • Lewis Hamilton (-600)
  • Alonso (-500)
  • Lance Stroll (-110)
  • Yuki Tsunoda (-105)

This group is likely to make up the top 10 but a couple of drivers could break into the points.

  • Nico Hulkenberg (+150)

Hulkenberg’s been one of the surprises in qualifying this season. He’s managed the top 10 in four out of seven Formula 1 races so far this year.

Qualifying is everything in Monaco and he could surprise once again and secure a top-10 result.

  • Esteban Ocon (+165)

Alpine started the season with one of the worst packages in the field. Since then, they’ve improved with multiple top-15 qualifying appearances.

Ocon took a shock podium last year at the Monaco Grand Prix thanks to a qualifying fourth. It’s unlikely he’ll be that high up the order again but a top-10 qualifying effort isn’t out of the question.

2024 Monaco GP Odds: Predictions

The Monaco Grand Prix is one of the crown jewels of the Formula 1 calendar. It’s a race every driver wants to win (aside from their home country’s event).

With tight walls and varied speeds for corners, it’s arguably the most challenging race mentally of the year.

That said, it still looks like Verstappen’s race to lose. Red Bull’s had the upper hand pace-wise often and had the strategy calls to make the most of it.

We like Verstappen to win (-200) thanks to a strategy call that gets him ahead of polesitter Leclerc (+260).

Our podium picks are Verstappen (-500), Leclerc (-165), and Sainz (+150). Look for Hulkenberg (+150) to break into the points thanks to his standout qualifying form this season.

For Formula 1 betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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