2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Odds: Sleepers, Faves, Predictions, for F1 in Jeddah
Max Verstappen Continued Dominance in Bahrain, Can he Continue in Saudi Arabia?
The 2024 Formula 1 season began with a familiar sight: Red Bull’s Max Verstappen cruising to victory. His eighth consecutive win dating back to the Japanese Grand Prix last year showed Red Bull’s not fallen off in 2024. The closest challengers – Ferrari – couldn’t keep up in Bahrain but could have a better chance this week. The 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Odds point to a potentially closer fight than last weekend.
Favorites for victory
Max Verstappen (-400)
More off-track drama this week at Red Bull involving Verstappen’s father Jos and Red Bull team principal Christian Horner. But the three-time defending champion was flawless on F1 race day in Bahrain. The package had the best aerodynamic balance to avoid problems with tire degradation.
The Jeddah Corniche Circuit is a very different challenge. Bahrain’s long straights and heavy braking zones give way to fast, flowing, on-the-limit corners in Jeddah. Red Bull will be strong again but Verstappen’s race advantage may be less pronounced this week.
Sergio Perez (+800)
Perez won this race last season as he shined in the early street course events. A lot of that can also be attributed to Verstappen starting 15th after a driveshaft issue cut his F1 qualifying short. Perez raced well to recover up to second in Bahrain and will likely perform well at a street track like Jeddah. But is it enough to overcome Verstappen? Likely not, save for a mechanical issue or contact taking the three-time champion out of the race.
Charles Leclerc (+1100)
Leclerc struggled in Bahrain with braking issues and couldn’t keep up with the top three as the race wore on. Ferrari should have a better go of it in Jeddah this week at a track that’s easier on the tires and features faster corners. A win would be a big ask against Red Bull’s might, but Leclerc will likely have the pace in qualifying to set himself up well for the race.
Carlos Sainz (+1400)
Sainz raced superbly to his first podium finish on track since the Singapore Grand Prix (the U.S. Grand Prix result came post-race). Leclerc had the edge in qualifying, but Sainz kept pace with Perez for part of the Bahrain Grand Prix. He’ll likely be up to the task in the race but he may be starting farther back in qualifying as Mercedes and McLaren are likely to perform better this week.
Pole position
Verstappen (-110)
Verstappen took pole position in Bahrain but his single-lap advantage will likely be smaller in Jeddah. He’s never qualified on pole at this track; he’s never even cracked the front row. He should be the favorite in every session and qualifying is no different but he should see a closer fight than Bahrain.
Leclerc (+225)
Leclerc could’ve likely put the Ferrari on pole in Bahrain but faltered in Q3 and settled for the front row. He’ll be in better conditions this week and has a track record of pole positions at street courses.
Perez (+650)
These odds are surprisingly long for a driver that’s taken the last two pole positions at this track. Perez ended up with a much better race pace in Bahrain to overcome a subpar qualifying performance. Returning to a place where he’s notched two of his three career pole positions makes this a very enticing bet.
Podium finishers
Oddsmakers point to the trio of Verstappen (-700), Pérez (-150), and Leclerc (-110) taking the top three spots in the race. But they’re not the only options.
Sainz (+110)
We just saw him race to the podium from fifth on the grid last week. On a track that’ll likely be better for the Ferrari, there’s no reason why he can’t repeat that feat.
Lewis Hamilton (+225)
Hamilton had a disappointing start to 2024. The seven-time Formula 1 world champion opted to compromise his qualifying pace to be faster in the race but it didn’t pan out as planned. Mercedes weren’t as fast as their rivals on the hard tires.
Again, the Jeddah Corniche Circuit’s different characteristics will likely be a lot better for the new Mercedes. Both Hamilton and George Russell commented on how much more drivable this year’s package is. Hamilton won this race in 2021 and looks to have the machinery he needs to fight harder for podiums.
Lando Norris (+275)
McLaren’s another team looking to have a better pace in Jeddah. The MCL38, like its predecessor, still struggles with rotation through slow-speed corners. That issue won’t be as profound in Jeddah, a track deemed “the fastest street track” on the GP F1 schedule.
Norris had a solid race pace but felt disappointed with his qualifying results. He’ll be in a better place to perform this week.
George Russell (+300)
Russell didn’t compromise as much as Hamilton in qualifying and managed a top-three start to the race in Bahrain. He wasn’t able to keep ahead of the Ferraris but, given how much more comfortable he was with the car, could be in for a better result this week. He’s done well in street tracks recently. Before his crash in Singapore last year, he was the fastest car on track.
Points finishers
Oddsmakers favor 10 drivers to notch a points finish in Jeddah: Verstappen (-1200), Perez (-800), Leclerc (-800), Sainz (-800), Hamilton (-700), Norris (-650), Russell (-600), Oscar Piastri (-450), Fernando Alonso (-400), and Lance Stroll (-165). But a couple drivers could break into that group in Jeddah.
Daniel Ricciardo (+125)
It was a controversial start to the season for the newly badged RB team. Team orders put Ricciardo past teammate Yuki Tsunoda late in the race in an attempt to get a pass for 12th in the race. Ricciardo fell flat and Tsunoda voiced his frustration before nearly crashing with Ricciardo on the cool-down lap.
RB should race much better this week. Ricciardo’s already looked like the favorite on the team and could race well. He’s done better on average at street tracks compared to regular courses in his F1 career and sees shorter Formula 1 odds as a result.
Zhou Guanyu (+550)
Zhou had a quiet but surprisingly productive race in Bahrain. He started 17th on the grid and raced to 11th in the Grand Prix. If he can make it through a potentially chaotic start, Zhou’s shown he can make it through to near the top 10.
2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Odds: Predictions
The Jeddah Corniche Circuit is a thrilling challenge for drivers and an exciting viewing experience for fans. With the challenge of Bahrain in the rear view, a more representative track awaits the Formula 1 grid this weekend.
For pole position, Leclerc looks best placed to challenge Verstappen on a single lap. Perez has the track record but since Saudi Arabia last year he hasn’t had a great handle on the Red Bull in qualifying or race trim.
Verstappen still looks like the man to beat in the race. We’re thinking Perez and Hamilton join him on the podium and Ricciardo makes it through for a points finish.
For Formula 1 standings, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
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