Azerbaijan GP Betting Odds: Another Red Bull Sweep?
Can anyone catch Verstappen and Perez in Baku?

The second-longest in-season break in the 2023 Formula 1 schedule is over. For the first time in four weeks, drivers from the 10 teams competing for a world championship will return to the track in earnest this week as we break down the Azerbaijan GP Betting Odds.
Red Bull has been the class of the field so far in 2023. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez have won the first three events, including the chaotic Australian Grand Prix last time in Melbourne. A wild, red flag-filled final few laps drew ire from fans and drivers alike.
With that debacle now squarely in the rearview, we begin the first of five F1 races in six weeks in Baku. The Azerbaijan Grand Prix has often seen safety cars and high-speed incidents. Last year, timely virtual and full safety cars meant Verstappen cruised to a victory ahead of Perez and Mercedes’ George Russell.
Verstappen could be the first driver to win multiple Azerbaijan Grands Prix in event history. This weekend also marks the first revised sprint race weekend of the year. Here’s what the format looks like:
DAY | EVENT |
---|---|
Friday | Practice 1 and Qualifying |
Saturday | Sprint Race Qualifying and Sprint Race |
Sunday | Race |
The fastest driver in qualifying will be credited with a pole for the event and will start first for the race on Sunday. With that format out of the way, here’s your breakdown of the F1 betting odds this week:
Red Bull at the top yet again
Baku has been good to the team from Milton Keynes. Daniel Ricciardo won the inaugural Azerbaijan Grand Prix in 2017 (the year prior, the event was titled European Grand Prix), and the team’s won the last two events: Perez in 2021 and Verstappen in 2022. Their car is even more dominant this season and could control the pace again. The RB19’s unique drag reduction system (DRS) advantage allows them to make up ground quickly if they’re behind.
Verstappen is favored to take his second win in a row in 2023, and Baku is at -275. Even in the likely event of a safety car or a problem in the sprint race, Verstappen should be at the front. It’s easy to imagine he makes three wins in four races to start the season.
But Perez (+380) is a practical choice in this event because Baku is one of his best tracks. Of all the tracks he’s raced at least six times in his career, Baku is his best by-average finish (fifth). He scored podiums in 2016 and 2018 driving midfield cars. He has a penchant for excelling on street tracks on the whole. This weekend he could draw even with Verstappen in wins for 2023 and offer a payout for victory.
Non-Red Bull drivers to consider for victory
Given the sprint race format for the weekend, chaos could reign in the streets of Baku. There are few tracks with a higher likelihood of safety cars and crashes affecting racing than here. With that, some non-Red Bull drivers could find themselves in the right place for victory.
The most obvious choice is Fernando Alonso (+1000). The two-time champion’s finished third in every race in 2023 so far. Aston Martin’s 2023 car is well-balanced through the corners but has more drag than the Red Bulls.
In Bahrain, Alonso was middle-of-the-pack in both speed traps, but in Baku, Aston Martin may be able to run less downforce to get a better top speed down the long straights. He’s a solid driver for weathering chaotic race events as well. He’d be worth a flier for an excellent payout for his first victory in a decade.
Lewis Hamilton is next-best at +1300. Compared to Red Bull and Aston Martin, the Mercedes package needs to be improved and famously struggled in Baku with bouncing last season. But his teammate Russell has noted the improvements Mercedes have made since Australia, saying significant changes are coming for Baku.
The seven-time champion was on the podium last time in Australia and could see his luck turn this weekend in case of a chaotic race.
Longer shots for the victory
Russell (+3300) offers more than double the payout of a Hamilton victory in the same machinery. Russell’s been solid in the opening rounds while the team has tried adapting to a car that’s off the Red Bull pace. He led the first part of the race in Australia before Verstappen overtook him, and a mechanical failure ended his race by lap 18.
Mercedes stated the failure was due to debris, and he may have had better luck in Baku. A Russell win would be a surprise (like any driver not in an RB19), but he’s made the most of opportunities when presented with them.
Ferrari was one of the faster cars in Baku last season before an engine failure cut Charles Leclerc’s race short. He’s +2800 for victory this week. Ferrari has been off the pace to start the year but showed high top speed in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia (top six in the speed trap in both). On a track that puts a premium on full speed, it may be the first time the Ferraris are competitive in 2023.
Another bet to consider for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix
Williams’ Alex Albon has consistently been one of the fastest cars in the speed trap and finish line in 2023. He’s made the top half of the grid in both statistics in the first three races. Albon is in a great position at a track that puts a premium on straight-line speed. He’s +125 for points finish, and that’s worth a shot.
Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions
The Red Bulls are the best cars by a significant margin, and this weekend will likely be no different. Verstappen is the easy choice, but Perez’s street-track understanding and affinity for Baku make him the favorite. If he can stay out of trouble in the sprint race, he’s an easy pick for victory.
Beyond those two, how about George Russell for a long-shot victory? He’s driven well in 2023 and seems more on top of the W14 than Hamilton. A little mayhem in the sprint race and a few safety cars could put him in position for a win and a great payout.
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