F1 Australian GP Betting Odds: Can Anyone Catch Red Bull?

Verstappen, Perez Looking for Three Wins to Open 2023 Season

The Saudi Arabian Grand Prix saw a repeat of the opening round in Bahrain: A 1-2 finish for Red Bull under the lights with Fernando Alonso in third with the Aston Martin. Sergio Perez managed his way to his first win of the 2023 F1 season and keep within a point of Max Verstappen in the F1 standings.

The 10 teams head east this weekend to Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix. Last year, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc had his first career grand slam – pole position, leading every lap, fastest lap, and the win. He won by more than 20 seconds over second-place Perez. Here’s a look at the odds for this weekend ahead of a four-week break.

Red Bull in Driver’s Seat for Another Win

After a win in Bahrain and a march from 15th to second in Saudi Arabia, Verstappen (-300) is heavily favored for the win in Melbourne. The next-best odds belong to Perez (+400). Another win for Perez could make things interesting for the championship dynamic within the Red Bull team.

The next-best odds belong to Alonso (+900). He’s finished third to both Red Bulls in the first two races. The Albert Park Circuit isn’t as high-speed as Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, meaning the lack of straight-line speed relative to the Red Bulls could be less of a factor for Alonso.

Beyond the repeat podium finishers, Leclerc (+1600) has the best odds for a win. It’d be a tall task for him to get a repeat victory considering how far off the pace the Ferrari has looked lately.

Podium favorites for the Australian Grand Prix

The top three from the first two rounds are favored to fill the top three spots again: Verstappen (-500), Perez (-250), and Alonso (-165) lead the way.

The Ferraris of Leclerc (+135) and Carlos Sainz (+330) are the next-best odds with Lewis Hamilton (+350) close behind. Of the trio, Hamilton may have the best shot considering the track’s characteristics and Mercedes’ current strengths.

Points finishers worth considering

Oddsmakers believe it’ll likely be a clean sweep for the top five teams in Melbourne to fill the points-paying positions. Red Bull’s Verstappen (-700) and Perez (-600), Aston Martin’s Alonso (-500) and Lance Stroll (-300), Mercedes’ Hamilton (-500) and George Russell (-450), Ferrari’s Sainz (-400) and Leclerc (-400), and the Alpines of Esteban Ocon (-200) and Pierre Gasly (-200).

But there have been some surprise points finishers to open 2023. Valtteri Bottas in his Alfa Romeo and Alexander Albon in a Williams both broke through in Bahrain. Last time out in Saudi Arabia, Kevin Magnussen in a Haas finished 10th for one world championship point.

There’s no chance of rain for either qualifying or the race. But there’s a history of safety car periods in Melbourne: three of the last five Australian Grands Prix have featured a safety car period (2016, 2018, 2022). This could mix up the order once again this weekend. Beyond those five teams, look for either Magnussen (+150) or teammate Nico Hulkenberg (+150) to break into the top 10. They performed well in Saudi Arabia and come to Australia with some momentum and a car that could suit the track well.

Predictions for the Australian Grand Prix

This is the second race at the Albert Park Circuit since the latest track layout update. This includes a fourth DRS (drag reduction system) zone after turn nine. This could make for an exciting race with more passing than in years past.

With that, this is once again Verstappen and Red Bull’s race to lose. Perez got the better of him in Saudi Arabia thanks to Verstappen’s setback in qualifying. We figure that won’t be the case this time around with Verstappen taking his first pole position in Australia ahead of another win.

For some surprises down the order, look for Magnussen to jump into the top 10 and grab another world championship point. Over his career, Melbourne’s been one of his best tracks: six races there have yielded an average finish of ninth. That’s where he scored his lone career podium in 2014.

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