F1 Miami Grand Prix Odds: Red Bull dominance continues in South Florida
The Formula 1 grid returns to the U.S. for the second-ever Miami Grand Prix
After one of the most extended breaks in the 2023 F1 schedule, fans were treated to a relatively low-key Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend. The first sprint race weekend of the season provided only a few thrills on one of the fastest tracks on the calendar.
Red Bull’s Sergio Perez won both the sprint race on Saturday and the regular race on Sunday. That pair of wins and teammate Max Verstappen finishing second and third in the sprint and regular race closes the gap in the F1 championship at the top. Perez is now just six points behind the two-time defending champion.
Now, the F1 grid heads to the U.S. for the first of three races on the calendar. Twenty cars will race around the Miami International Autodrome for the second time this weekend. Last year saw the Ferraris shine in qualifying, only for Verstappen to grab victory come Sunday. Here’s your betting primer for this weekend’s race:
Red Bull favored for fifth straight win
Perez and Verstappen have taken turns standing on the top stop on Sunday. Verstappen won the season opener in Bahrain and Australia. Perez won last week and in Saudi Arabia. If we follow that form, it’ll be Verstappen’s turn this week, and that’s reflected in the odds. He’s favored to win at -225. His lack of pace in Azerbaijan likely won’t carry over this week.
Perez (+300) is next but history isn’t on his side. When Perez has won or podiumed in his career, he’s often fallen short of that standard the next race weekend. This dates back to his second season in 2012 for Sauber. He stood on the podium three times in the sixth-best car that year but was ninth at best in the races after his spectacular drives. In seven career podiums with Force India/Racing point, he followed those results with a top-five finish just once (U.S. Grand Prix in 2015).
Since he’s been in the front-running Red Bull, a successful weekend has a new standard. But he still needs to string together consecutive wins throughout his time with the team. Though the Red Bull is far and away the best car to start 2023, Perez is not the driver to bet on this weekend.
Long shot for a win at the Miami Grand Prix
The unusual track layout in Baku meant some teams’ pace could have been better. Charles Leclerc took pole in a Ferrari that’s often looked like the third- or fourth-best car. He’s next-best in odds for a win at +1200, but the layout likely made the Ferrari look better than it is. If you’re looking for a winner outside of the Red Bull garage, Fernando Alonso (+1400) is likely your best bet once again.
Red Bull favorited for pole as well
Ferrari may have taken pole last year, but 2023 is a different challenge. Verstappen’s favored again here at -150, and it’s hard to imagine anyone else touching him. Perez (+350) will likely be closest to him, but not enough to make that run for the pole.
Other bets to consider for the Miami Grand Prix
Though it likely won’t be an exciting race at the top of the order, things could get interesting farther down the grid. The layout is more moderate than Baku so that some cars won’t get as big a boost.
When it comes to podium finish odds, Verstappen (-500), Perez (-300), and Alonso (-120) are the favorites again. Good choices to break into the top three are either of the Mercedes drivers. Lewis Hamilton (+200) and George Russell (+400) looked strong in Australia. That track’s more similar to Miami than Baku. Hamilton is in better form lately, but Russell would be a bigger payout.
For odds to finish in the top 10, oddsmakers predictably like both drivers from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin to make it. Next in line with the best F1 odds for a points finish are Lando Norris (-200) and Alpine duo Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly (both at -140). Eleven drivers in total are favored for a top-10 finish.
McLaren’s Oscar Piastri (+200) and Yuki Tsunoda (+160) of Alpha Tauri are good picks. Piastri’s 11th place is even more impressive, considering he was dealing with food poisoning all weekend. McLaren nearly had its second double-points finish and first on merit (Australia’s slew of DNFs more than flattered their actual pace). Alpha Tauri came out in Baku more on the pace than in previous weeks, especially with Tsunoda. Mechanical problems or incidents for a few drivers in the top eight could see either of those two elevated to points finishes.
Predictions for the 2023 Miami Grand Prix
It’s boring and likely going to be a theme of 2023, but Verstappen looks primed for yet another win this weekend, barring contact or mechanical failure. He’s the pick for the pole, and a repeat race win in South Florida. We’re picking a Verstappen, Perez, Russell podium with surprise points finish for Piastri.
Follow us on Twitter
