Italian GP Betting Odds: Can Ferrari Pull One Off for The Fans?

Ferrari is Out of the Running but Can Still Win at Monza

After a fourth consecutive victory for Max Verstappen and Red Bull in Formula 1, Ferrari is all but out of the running to finish first. But the Italian constructor can still salvage some pride by winning one for the fans at the Italian Grand Prix in Monza. The Italian GP betting odds heavily favor Verstappen and Red Bull although he has never won here. Charles Leclerc will look to recapture Monza’s title for the first time since 2019.

2022 Italian Grand Prix Information

  • Race: Italian Grand Prix
  • Location: Monza Circuit, Monza, Italy
  • Day/Time: Sunday, September 11, 9:00 a.m.
  • Television: ESPN

Home Sweet Temple

Will it be a home course advantage for Scuderia Ferrari? Returning to Monza, Ferrari has been at home at the “Temple of Speed”. As of this race, Ferrari has won the most races at Monza with 20. And on the flip side, Red Bull has won just twice and not since 2013 with Sebastian Vettel. A win here will give Ferrari some breathing room from Mercedes. It will also provide some much-needed optimism in a season mired by screw-ups., as well as give bettors a fresh perspective on upcoming F1 schedules.

“Oh my goodness,” Nico Rosberg began in an interview with Sky F1. “Even Formula Two teams or Formula Three teams do a better job at their strategy and pit stops than Ferrari. So you’re in the pit and there’s no tire in a normal race. At some point, they really need to start making some changes.”

After a hot start, Leclerc has won just one race in his last 12. He finished on the podium just thrice in this span too as he sits 109 points away from Verstappen. The Monegasque driver won in Monza in 2019 and finished fourth in 2021. As for his teammate, Carlos Sainz, he finished second in 2020 and has finished in the top 10 in three of his last four trips at Monza.

The Italian GP betting odds heavily expect both Ferrari drivers to finish in the top-six, which is something they’ve done consistently enough. However, a podium finish for both is priced at 3-1 (+300) because Ferrari has not done it since the Miami Grand Prix back in May. After a mishap at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, Ferrari needs to redeem itself with a strong showing here.

Five Alive for Verstappen

Verstappen can cruise to his second straight F1 world title. At this point, he’s chasing the record of 14 victories in a season. Red Bull’s leading man can now win a fifth straight race as per the Italian GP betting odds. He’ll be the first to accomplish this since Lewis Hamilton in 2020. To do so, the 24-year-old will have to notch his first victory at Monza.

The defending champion has struggled here and has never finished on the podium in his career. In fact, he failed to finish in his last two trips here. But at this point, Verstappen seems bulletproof. He’s overcome some steep F1 race odds and even if he were to fall behind, he finds a way to finish on top.

Red Bull has since made improvements to its vehicles in the past three years. However, the constructor has seen three retirements this season though two of them have been to crashes. Verstappen crashed out of Monza before. Now carrying that championship savvy, he’s favored to snap that “DNF” streak in its tracks.

Will the Underdog Streak Keep Going?

For the last three Italian Grand Prix races, an underdog won the race. Daniel Ricciardo won in 2021, Pierre Gasly in 2020, and Leclerc in 2019. None of these drivers were in the top five on the betting odds and for Ricciardo and Gasly, the win marked their only one for that season. The two are long shots now and are even underdogs (+135 and +150, respectively) to finish with points (top 10).

If this trend is to continue, a driver with championship experience could shock everyone by finishing first. Fernando Alonso is at 150-1 to win. The two-time champion has not won at Monza since 2010 and has not won a race since 2013. With shorter odds is Lewis Hamilton, who has surprisingly not won a race all year.

Hamilton is a distant third at 9-1 (+900) to win. He last won at Monza in 2018. A win for Hamilton not only redeems him and Mercedes from the drama in Zandvoort but also breaks the record for most wins in the track with six. On the flip side, George Russell could win his maiden race here at 10-1.

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