Monaco Grand Prix Betting: Will the Red Bull streak finally be broken?

One of the oldest tracks on the F1 calendar could give us a new winner in 2023

Arguably the biggest race of the Formula 1 schedule is here: the Monaco Grand Prix. The tight, twisting turns through the principality provide a unique challenge to rookies and veteran drivers alike. Any small mistake or snap of oversteer at upwards of 100 mph and you’re likely in the wall.

This week’s race comes after the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix was canceled due to flooding in the area. Organizers and government officials decided the resources for a race were better suited elsewhere. Between that and the flooded areas of the paddock, the race was canceled for 2023. The Monaco Grand Prix becomes the first of back-to-back races instead of the middle event in a tripleheader.

Mercedes was one of the biggest teams teasing an upgrade for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. Unfortunately, the new package will have to run in one of the most challenging tracks on the calendar.

But the biggest question remains as it has for all of 2023, can anyone stop Red Bull? This week could be the best chance before the summer break.

Verstappen leads the favorites for victory

World champion Max Verstappen leads the F1 standings by 14 points over Sergio Pérez. The duo has five wins and four poles from four races. As a team, Red Bull is outscoring Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Alpine, Haas, Alfa Romeo, AlphaTauri, and Williams combined.

Yet Verstappen (+125) has some of his worst odds for victory of the season this week. The RB19 package’s only weakness is in qualifying. Other teams can heat up their front tires faster than the Red Bulls due to the RB19’s anti-dive set up in the front suspension.

Of all of the races on the F1 schedule, the Monaco Grand Prix is arguably the most important for qualifying. Polesitters typically hold on for victory except for races with inclement weather or mid-race safety cars. Since 2004, winners have started on pole in 12 of 18 races.

Recently that’s been less frequent (two of the last seven races have been won from the pole) but for variable reasons. Last year, Pérez won from fourth in a rainy Monaco Grand Prix that saw strategic blunders from Ferrari. In 2021, pole sitter Charles Leclerc did not start the Monaco Grand Prix due to mechanical problems.

Pérez (+300) is second in odds for victory. He took the pole last time out in Miami, but Verstappen likely would have been higher than 9th on the grid had he set a time in Q3. Pérez shines on street courses, but he’ll need a lot of help for a win again this weekend.

Leclerc (+350) sees some of his best odds for victory in 2023 this weekend. He’s taken the pole at his home race before, but Monaco is one of his worst tracks in his career. He crashed out in 2019, failed to start in 2021, and lost out on victory last year after starting on pole. He could get pole for the third year in a row, but there needs to be more reason to feel confident he’ll win.

Fernando Alonso (+500) rounds out the top group of favorites. This could be his best chance on pure merit to win. The Aston Martin’s looked excellent in 2023, and Alonso has raced well in Monaco when given a leading car. Wins in 2006 and 2007 came in front-running cars. He’s also overperformed in slower cars, like a fifth-place finish in a midfield car in 2016. He’s a non-Red Bull driver you can feel confident in this weekend.

Other bets to consider in Monaco Grand Prix betting

Like the F1 odds for victory, odds for pole position are much closer and less favored towards Red Bull than any race this season. Verstappen (+135) holds a slim lead in odds over Leclerc (+175). Leclerc’s history of qualifying success in Monaco means he should be a favorite. But the last driver to take three consecutive pole positions in Monaco was Ayrton Senna (1988-1991). That’s a tall task. Again, Alonso (+700) offers good value here.

Eight drivers are favored for the top six in Monaco: both from Red Bull, Ferrari, Aston Martin, and Mercedes. Pierre Gasly (+350) is a good play here. He’s raced well in Monaco before (sixth place in 2021 in an AlphaTauri) and Alpine will be looking to perform well after harsh comments from boss Laurent Rossi.

Eleven cars are favored for a points finish. Both Red Bulls, Aston Martins, Mercedes, Alpines, Ferraris, and Lando Norris in his McLaren are favored to make the top 10.

For a spoiler, Alex Albon (+200) could be a surprise. He took an eighth-place result in an underpowered Toro Rosso (now AlphaTauri) in 2019. He’s finished just two of five races to start 2023, but that included a 10th-place result in Bahrain.

Nico Hulkenberg (+160) could also be a surprise points finisher in Monaco. He’s brought lower midfield cars to points in Monte Carlo (2012 and 2014 Force India) and could do it again.

Monaco Grand Prix predictions

The Monaco Grand Prix is often considered one of the least exciting races on the F1 schedule. But in 2023, it could offer a break from Red Bull’s dominance.

Verstappen’s been the easy choice for every race’s win and pole position. This time will be different. A Leclerc pole and Alonso win would be a welcome surprise to 2023. Look for Gasly to sneak into the top six and Albon for a top-10 finish.

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