Odds point to Red Bull win in Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

Max Verstappen is heavily favored for a win once again. Can anyone catch him?

Update: the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix has been postponed due to heavy flooding in Imola, Italy. 

Emilia Romagna Update

F1 released a statement on the matter.

“The decision has been taken because it is not possible to safely hold the event for our fans, the teams and our personnel and it is the right and responsible thing to do given the situation faced by the towns and cities in the region. The decision has been taken because it is not possible to safely hold the event for our fans, the teams and our personnel and it is the right and responsible thing to do given the situation faced by the towns and cities in the region.”

An eventful red-flagged qualifying session in Miami gave Sergio Perez the pole position for the fifth race of 2023. Teammate and championship leader Max Verstappen started rows behind him in ninth with lots of ground to make up.

But it didn’t matter. The combination of Verstappen and the Red Bull RB19 overcame all obstacles in Miami. He passed Perez with less than 10 laps to go and cruised to his third win of the season.

The win puts him 14 points clear of Perez and 44 points ahead of third-place Fernando Alonso.

This week, Formula 1 heads to one of the oldest tracks on the Formula 1 calendar: the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari in Imola, Italy, for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

It’s the first of two races in Italy this season, with the Italian Grand Prix in Monza coming in September.

The weather could play a factor for the first time this season. Rain is forecasted throughout the weekend and predicted to get heavier into Sunday. That could jumble the order slightly and make for a more exciting race than we’ve seen in 2023. But oddsmakers aren’t buying that according to the Emilia Romagna grand prix odds.

Odds favor Verstappen pole, fourth win in 2023

The RB19 has looked the class of the field in 2023. A clean sweep of wins punctuates its pace over the other nine teams. The only area for improvement seems to be the initial tire warm-up, hence why Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc got the pole in Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

But this weekend will likely be more of the same. Rain or not, Verstappen is the pick for the pole. The RB19’s aerodynamic superiority can probably handle dynamic conditions without losing too much speed.

On top of that, Verstappen has a well-earned reputation as one of the best wet-weather drivers on the grid. At -175 for the pole and -250 for the win among the Emilia Romagna grand prix odds, it’s hard to argue against him.

Perez (+275 for victory and +275 for pole, according to the Emilia Romagna grand prix odds) has raced well in the rain before, including a win in last year’s Singapore Grand Prix. But short of contact or mechanical failure, this one’s Verstappen’s race to lose.

Alonso is likely your best bet if you want to take a chance elsewhere for a huge payout. The Aston Martin has been the next-best car in 2023, with the two-time champion behind the wheel. Alonso’s odds for victory (+1400) make him a very long shot.

But the potential for rain could make for an unpredictable race. If that’s the case, betting on one of the most experienced drivers in F1 history in an aerodynamically sound car is a good choice.

Podium bets to consider for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

Oddsmakers favor a podium of Verstappen (-450), Perez (-250), and Alonso (-140) for the fourth time in six races among F1 odds.

But multiple teams are bringing updates to Imola this weekend, including Mercedes. Will either Lewis Hamilton (+160) or George Russell (+250) likely make the top three on merit? No, but wet conditions could turn the odds in their favor. Hamilton is the safer bet, given his form in 2023, which includes a podium in the chaotic Australian Grand Prix. He’s also a very strong driver in wet conditions.

Other bets worth considering at Imola

Seven drivers are favored for a top-six finish in Imola:

  • Verstappen (-700)
  • Alonso (-500)
  • Perez (-500)
  • Russell (-350)
  • Hamilton (-350)
  • Leclerc (-300)
  • Carlos Sainz (-150).

If there are mixed conditions, look for Esteban Ocon (+450) to sneak into the top six. Ocon’s only career win came in mixed conditions, and his Alpine team has recently been under fire for underperforming. A good result here would go a long way toward building confidence in the team to start a run of three races in a row.

Oddsmakers have 11 drivers favored for points finishes this weekend:

  • Verstappen (-900)
  • Perez (-800)
  • Alonso (-700)
  • Russell (-700)
  • Hamilton (-700)
  • Sainz (-500)
  • Leclerc (-500)
  • Lance Stroll (-300)
  • Ocon (-250)
  • Pierre Gasly (-250)
  • Lando Norris (-150).

Three drivers outside that group have a good chance at a top-10 result. Haas drivers Kevin Magnussen (+175) and Nico Hulkenberg (+150) are worth consideration. Haas performed well last year at Imola in mixed conditions, with Magnussen taking eighth in the sprint race and ninth on Sunday. Between the two, Magnussen has the stronger argument for points.

Yuki Tsunoda (+250) has been the season’s surprise so far. He’s finished either 10th or 11th in each race in arguably the worst car on the grid. Imola isn’t a track that favors straight-line speed. He could take another points to finish on Sunday as well.

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix predictions

If the race is a dry affair, this one’s pretty easy. Verstappen will take pole and the win over Perez and Alonso once again.

But if there’s rain, we like a podium of Verstappen, Alonso, and Hamilton. Look for Ocon to sneak into the top six and Magnussen to claim another point finish for Haas.

Can’t get enough? Here’s more!

Back to top button

pointspreads

WHO WILL WIN?

Submit your vote and view the results
Hey Again

vote all you can

pointspreads

PS-email

PS-email

Robot_subscription sombras
Subscribe to get
get_expert_img
Thank you for subscribing subscribed_icon