United States Grand Prix Preview: Verstappen seeks third straight win
With the world title clinched, Red Bull driver chasing record-tying win
The Formula 1 calendar took a week’s break after the demanding Qatar Grand Prix. With multiple drivers seeking medical attention after the race, the extra weekend before coming to Austin, Texas was a welcome break. Now, the F1 grid returns to the U.S. for the second of three races in America in 2023 and the first of a triple-header of races in the next three weeks. Here are the odds you need to know in this United States Grand Prix preview.
United States Grand Prix: Odds for Sprint and Grand Prix Winner
The United States Grand Prix is the second sprint race in a row. It’ll feature the same schedule seen last time out in Qatar:
- Friday: Free practice and Grand Prix qualifying
- Saturday: Sprint shootout and sprint race
- Sunday: Grand Prix
There are separate odds for the two races.
Max Verstappen (-400 for sprint win, -450 for Grand Prix win)
Verstappen comes to Austin with two Grand Prix wins in a row. He’s won this race in the last two years and comes in with the best car he’s ever had in Formula 1. This final races of the F1 schedule plays to Red Bull’s strengths with front-limited circuits like Japan, Qatar, Austin, and Brazil.
A win on Sunday will tie his record for most wins in a season, a number he set last season. It’ll likely take a crash or an unprecedented car failure to knock him off the top spot. The weather report in Austin shows it’ll be one of the hottest races of the year, which could also play a role.
Lando Norris (+1100, +1200)
Norris lost out on the chance for second place last time out in Qatar when team orders kept him in third and teammate Oscar Piastri in second. He overcame a bad qualifying result from track limits to take a podium finish in the grueling evening race. Despite the demands, he placed well enough all weekend to reach seventh in the F1 points standings.
Conditions will likely be similar in the Texas heat. He’s always raced well in Austin, finishing seventh, eighth, and sixth in three career races. The McLaren should race well at the track this time around as well. With a better qualifying result for the sprint and feature race, he’ll have a great shot at a win in at least the sprint.
Oscar Piastri (+1200, +1200)
Another week, another excellent result for the rookie Australian driver. Qatar saw Piastri win the chaotic sprint race and finish second in the Grand Prix, his best weekend of the year. These results show he can challenge Norris at the front when the car has pace.
The McLaren should be the second-best car this weekend in Austin. Heat is a concern, but Piastri’s shown the ability to shine in those conditions. If anything happens to Verstappen, he’ll be right there for a win.
United States Grand Prix preview: Pole odds for Grand Prix qualifying
Verstappen (-275)
The Red Bull’s been stellar in race trim all season, with Verstappen behind the wheel but not as dominant in qualifying. Though there’s a chance the gap will be closer on a one-lap pace, it’s not close enough. Verstappen should earn his third pole in a row.
Norris (+800)
Norris’ strong result in qualifying last time out was nullified for track limits. If he keeps it in the white lines this week, he’s a shoo-in for the front row and could potentially pip Verstappen.
Charles Leclerc (+1000)
It’s been a rough stretch of F1 races for Leclerc since the summer break ended. Teammate Carlos Sainz is performing better, including a solid win in Singapore. Sainz currently sits eight points ahead of Leclerc in the standings. Leclerc needs a good result here and could surprise with a pole on Friday.
United States Grand Prix Preview: Podium odds for Grand Prix
Favorites: Verstappen (-700), Norris (-165), Piastri (-120)
There’s little reason to think there won’t be a repeat of the last two races in Austin. These are the best two cars on the grid right now and the top three drivers from those two teams. Save for contact or a surprising retirement; this will likely be the podium once again.
Sleepers: Lewis Hamilton (+240), Carlos Sainz (+450)
Austin’s one of Hamilton’s best tracks on the Formula 1 calendar. He’s finished off the podium just once in 10 races. A win is a long shot this time around, given Mercedes’ pace. But he’ll want a bounce-back result after a crash in Qatar.
Sainz is one of the surprises of the second half of the F1 season. After a solid first half, he’s notched two poles, one win, and another podium since the summer break ended. He’s been the stronger of the two drivers on average during the race in that span. He could work that Ferrari to a higher position than expected this weekend.
United States Grand Prix Preview: Points finish odds for Grand Prix
Favorites: Verstappen (-1600), Norris (-800), Piastri (-800), Sergio Perez (-700), George Russell (-600), Hamilton (-600), Leclerc (-500), Sainz (-450), Fernando Alonso (-400), Esteban Ocon (-175) Pierre Gasly (-175)
Oddsmakers have a pretty complete top-10 group of favorites for Formula 1 betting this weekend. Eleven drivers are expected to be in the top 10, leaving little room for any other drivers.
Sleepers: Alex Albon (+150), Daniel Ricciardo (+700)
Albon’s often been a top-10 surprise in 2023 but hasn’t finished since Monza in early September. This weekend offers a type of track where he could excel with long, fast corners and multiple long straights. The Williams will be tough to overtake with its high top speed. Albon could get ahead in qualifying and manage from there.
Ricciardo’s back in the Alpha Tauri for the first time since his injury in the Netherlands. The race in Austin has long been one of his favorites. He’ll want to put together a good race after his injury and how replacement Liam Lawson looked.
Predictions for the United States Grand Prix
Another sprint weekend will likely see a similar result. It’s hard to imagine things going differently than a Verstappen win from Piastri and Norris in the Grand Prix.
But if you’re looking for a surprise and good payout, look for Hamilton to make the podium. An Albon points finish feels more likely than one for Ricciardo, but the latter is more exciting.
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