FIFA World Cup: Mexico vs. Poland Betting Odds & Recap

Robert Lewandowski’s missed penalty and Guillermo Ochoa’s goalkeeping heroics earned both teams a point in Group C play. This group is wide open, with Argentina losing the first match to Saudi Arabia.

An open first half for both teams likely brought goals, with Ernesto Vega going closest with a header. However, Poland stopper Wojciech Szczesny was in good form, keeping out a string of chances toward the end of the period. This pattern continued in the second 45 minutes — Mexico would win a midfield battle, play it to either Vega or Hirving Lozano, and then lob a cross into the box.

In the 54th minute, referee Chris Beath was called over to the VAR monitor to see if Lewandowski was pulled back in the box by Mexico defender Hector Moreno moments before he fell headlong into Ochoa. Though not given on the pitch, it only took Beath two replays to award the spot-kick. However, resounding boos from the raucous Mexican support soundtracked the decision.

Lewandowski was set to send Poland to the top of the group — only for Ochoa to spring low to his right to save the penalty.

The 0-0 result was the second goalless draw of the tournament, following Denmark vs Tunisia‘s result immediately before.

Mexico vs Poland betting odds implied this match would be a neck-and-neck affair. Poland was the favorite heading into the match at -105. El Tri sat at +175 odds, while a draw came in at +210. Poland, who have only won one match in their last three World Cup appearances, showed +185 odds to win. The over/under goal total for the match was listed as two goals. The over was implied to be more likely, at -120 odds.

However, a 0-0 isn’t the end of the world for either team. Following Argentina’s shock defeat to Saudi Arabia earlier today, this was a game that neither team wanted to lose. Mexico and Poland will still be confident of defeating the Saudis despite their feats earlier today, while Argentina’s evident defensive fragility buoys them.

📊 Team Stats 📊

Mexico	–	Poland
61%	Possession	39%
11	Total Shots	7
4	Shots on Target	2
4	Shots Wide	4
3	Shots Blocked	1
2	Saves	4
6	Corners	5
2	Yellow Cards	1
0	Red Cards	0
14	Fouls	15
3	Offsides	0
84%	Pass Accuracy	71%
8	Dribbles	5
33	Crosses	15
15	Tackles	17

Were We On the Right Track?

Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on November 15, 2022.

Excellent Group Stage Clash Ahead

Two knockout stage hopefuls meet on Tuesday as Mexico take on Poland. Both countries have long soccer histories but have struggled to find success in the World Cup as of late. Mexico’s round of 16 curse continues, as they haven’t made it to the quarterfinals in any of their last seven appearances. Meanwhile, Poland last made it out of the group stage in 1986, the last time the World Cup was held in Mexico. With Argentina likely to take the top spot in the group, this is a huge match for both teams. Let’s check the Mexico vs. Poland betting odds and preview the match.

Team Standings and Odds:

Mexico are unbeaten in their last five matches vs. Poland but they’ve only played once in the last decade. Mexico won 1-0 in a 2017 friendly in Gdansk as Raul Jimenez scored vs. a Robert Lewandowski-less Poland. El Tri are looking for their first Mexico World Cup win in this fixture. The only other World Cup meeting between these two teams was in 1978. Poland were victorious by a 3-1 scoreline. The Mexico vs. Poland betting odds list 2022’s match as a pick’em.

Controversial Team Selection for Mexico

• Upcoming Matches: Nov. 26 vs. Argentina, Nov. 30 vs. Saudi Arabia

There’s controversy surrounding Tata Martino’s team selection for the World Cup. Martino left out Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez, who’s the current joint-top scorer in the Europa League. Instead, Martino took Rogelio Funes Mori and Raul Jimenez.

Jimenez hasn’t played for Wolverhampton Wanderers since August due to a groin problem. New Wolves coach Julen Lopetegui is reportedly furious with the Mexican national team for naming him to the side.

Mexico usually dominate CONCACAF competition but that hasn’t been the case over the last few years. They finished behind Canada in CONCACAF qualifiers and lost twice to the USA in 2021 cup finals. Still, talent is never a question when it comes to El Tri.

Edson Alvarez and Hector Herrera are key cogs in a solid midfield, while Napoli’s Hirving Lozano may be relied on for goals. Jimenez is Mexico’s active leading scorer but in addition to his groin injury he’s not necessarily fully recovered from a gruesome head injury he suffered in 2020. Sevilla winger Jesus Corona is out for the World Cup and likely would have been a starter.

FIFA betting tips typically imply Mexico are strong knockout stage contenders. The match vs. Poland will be a crucial one, as El Tri are expected to defeat Saudi Arabia but lose to Argentina. With Memo Ochoa in goal, Mexico are in safe hands.

Ochoa was one of the standout performers of the 2014 World Cup and can still make stunning saves. This World Cup is make or break for Tata Martino. It’s unlikely anything other than an eighth straight round of 16 appearance will be tolerated.

Poland’s Limited Potential

• Upcoming Matches: Nov. 26 vs. Saudi Arabia, Nov. 30 vs. Argentina

Poland entered the 2018 World Cup ranked sixth in FIFA’s World Rankings. However, they finished in last place in their group and Robert Lewandowski failed to register a goal. Lewandowski, Poland’s all-time leading scorer, will have to be at his best if Poland are to advance in a tough group.

The Barcelona striker set countless records during his time at Bayern Munich. He already has 13 goals in his first 14 La Liga matches as well.

Major tournaments haven’t been too kind to Poland recently. They failed to win a match at last year’s Euros and lost to both Slovakia and Sweden. Poland have also had a difficult time defeating Europe’s top teams.

In the recent UEFA Nations League, Poland lost twice to Belgium and went 0-1-1 vs. the Netherlands. In fact, Poland conceded the second-most goals in all of the UEFA Nations League A.

With vulnerabilities vs. top teams and a lack of explosiveness, Poland’s potential is limited. That shows in their +15000 odds to win the World Cup. Still, they can’t be counted out in any individual games with Lewandowski leading the line. Piotr Zielinski and Grzegorz Krychowiak are other standout players in midfield.

Match Analysis and Odds:

The Mexico vs. Poland betting odds imply this match could be a neck-and-neck affair. Mexico are ever-so-slight favorites as a pick’em. El Tri sit at -115 odds, while Poland come in at -105 odds. Poland, who have only won one match in each of their last three World Cup appearances, show +185 odds to win.

Mexico’s moneyline comes in at +175 odds and a draw isn’t far behind, at +210. Poland opened up as favorites, which implies that money is coming in on Mexico.

Both teams are priced at -240 odds to score a goal in the match. Mexico don’t have a threat of the same caliber of Robert Lewandowski but they’re a more dangerous team on the whole.

Both teams will be well aware of how important this match is. The team that wins is very likely to come in second place in the group. As much as winning is key, avoiding defeat will be of the utmost importance.

Both teams are priced at -240 odds to score a goal in the match. Mexico don’t have a threat of the same caliber of Robert Lewandowski but they’re a more dangerous team on the whole.

The over/under goal total for the match is listed as two goals. Currently, the over is implied to be more likely, at -120 odds. The under can be taken at even odds but it’s worth noting that Poland have only kept two shutouts in eight matches this year.

Mexico vs. Poland FAQ

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