Ecuador Overcoming Point Deduction
Both Venezuela and Ecuador head into their Thursday CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier with a 2-1-1 record. However, Venezuela are three points ahead of Ecuador in the standings. CONMEBOL deducted three points from Ecuador at the start of qualifiers for falsifying birth documents for a former player. Ecuador will look to close that gap on Thursday when they head to Venezuela. We’ll dish out some Venezuela vs Ecuador betting tips ahead of an important CONMEBOL qualifier.
⚽Venezuela vs Ecuador ⚽
Location: Estadio Monumental de Maturin, Maturin, Venezuela
Venezuela vs Ecuador Head-to-Head
Venezuela have won just one of their last nine games vs.= Ecuador, in all competitions. That doesn’t mean Ecuador have been a great soccer bet in this fixture, as three of the previous five matchups have finished in draws. In 2022 World Cup qualifiers, these teams split their meetings as the home team won each one. Each of the last five Venezuela vs. Ecuador games have finished in draws or been decided by a single goal.
Venezuela Mean Business
Venezuela have never qualified for a FIFA World Cup, and they haven’t come particularly close as of late. On the 2022 CONMEBOL World Cup schedule in qualifiers, Venezuela went just 3-1-14 and finished in last place. However, with an expanded World Cup format, this marks their best chance to qualify. Venezuela have already won two games in their first four matches of the 2026 qualifiers.
Most recently, they picked up a 3-0 win over 10-man Chile last month as Yeferson Soteldo, Salomon Rondon and Darwin Machis got on the scoresheet. Venezuela also impressively picked up a 1-1 draw at Brazil last month and have played well under coach Fernando Batista. Since he took over in March, Venezuela have compiled a 5-2-1 record. Venezuela vs Ecuador betting tips also mention that La Vinotinto are yet to concede a goal at home in qualifiers.
All-time leading scorer Rondon has found the net twice so far, including a penalty winner over Paraguay. Midfielder Yangel Herrera has also been key in Girona’s run to the top of the La Liga table. Machis has also been a key player for La Liga’s Cadiz this La Liga season. Playing Venezuela is no longer a probable three points for other teams, and they certainly have a shot to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
Key Players Absent for Ecuador
Last month, Ecuador managed to grab a 2-1 win at Bolivia and played to a scoreless draw vs Colombia. So, like Venezuela, Ecuador have lost just one time in their first four qualifiers in CONMEBOL. Ecuador have qualified for four of the last six FIFA World Cups and are certainly expected to participate in North America 2026, despite the point deduction.
Bettors need to be aware that Ecuador are dealing with a couple of key injuries heading into the November international break. Brighton left back Pervis Estupiñan is one of Ecuador’s best players, but he’s out for this match. Ecuador all-time leading scorer, Enner Valencia is also out vs Venezuela and Chile.
Still, Felix Sanchez Bas will expect his players to pick up points in both matches they play this month. Without Valencia, though, it’s unclear where the goals will come from. No player on November’s roster has scored more than seven goals for the national team. Union Saint-Gilloise forward Kevin Rodriguez did score a late winner in the match vs Bolivia, and Jordy Caicedo is another option up front.
Venezuela & Ecuador Match Analysis
Both Venezuela and Ecuador have been solid on defense so far. Only Argentina have conceded fewer goals than Venezuela heading into the fifth CONMEBOL qualifier. Ecuador have only conceded three goals through four matches, one more than Venezuela. Venezuela vs Ecuador betting tips often mention this is expected to be a close match. Don’t expect a shootout or a blowout in this one.
Venezuela pk, +0.5 shows -120 odds for this one, and Ecuador pk, -0.5 sits at -110. Ecuador are +135 favorites for this one, but they did lose at Venezuela in the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers. Plus, Venezuela’s last home loss was in March 2022. The hosts are +220 moneyline underdogs for this one.
No one would be shocked if this one finishes in a draw and one is priced at +195 odds. With both CONMEBOL teams frequently involved in low-scoring matches, the over/under goal total is two. Over two goals come in at -120 odds here but Venezuela’s Rondon is the only proven goalscorer in action on Thursday.