World Cup: Spain vs Germany Betting Analysis & Odds GAME RECAP

In the tournament’s most evenly matched game, the Group of Death matchup between Spain and Germany ended in a 1-1 draw thanks to two crucial subs for both sides.

Germany was sporadically threatening, but Spain’s pressing had them operating on a knife-edge of functionality throughout most of the first half.

Tournament specialist Dani Olmo got the ball rolling in the seventh minute when he lashed a shot goalwards, only to be denied by a combination of Manuel Neuer’s left hand and the crossbar. In the first half, Antonio Rudiger thought he had given Germany the lead in the 39th minute with a headed strike, but VAR ruled the goal had been offside.

Germany was sporadically threatening, but Spain’s pressing had them operating on a knife-edge of functionality throughout most of the first half. Neuer and Antonio Rüdiger are not the sorts of players to panic – and they didn’t – but they were forced to scrap the ball in an unorthodox fashion on more than one occasion, as Spain switched the ball from flank to flank.

Second-half substitute Fullkrug had been on the pitch less than 15 minutes when he collected the ball from team-mate Jamal Musiala and fired it past Unai Simon in the 83rd minute. Alvaro Morata had put Spain in front in the 62nd minute, taking a great ball from Jordi Alba and lifting it past Manuel Neuer at the near post. Similar to Fullkrug, Morata had been on the pitch for less than 10 minutes.

The result keeps the group WIDE open, as anyone could secure a spot in the Round of 16. Next, Spain takes on Japan, and a win or draw can reserve their spot. Finally, Germany takes on a depleted Costa Rican side with the slightest chance of making it through.

📊 Team Stats 📊

Spain	–	Germany
64%	Possession	36%
7	Total Shots	11
3	Shots on Target	4
2	Shots Wide	4
2	Shots Blocked	3
3	Saves	2
6	Corners	5
1	Yellow Cards	3
0	Red Cards	0
13	Fouls	11
2	Offsides	5
86%	Pass Accuracy	79%
3	Dribbles	8
6	Crosses	11
18	Tackles	29

Did We Get It Right?

Below you will find all the predictions we made before the matchup, on November 24, 2022.

Powerhouses Meet in World Cup Group E

The most-anticipated match of the 2022 FIFA World Cup group stage pits Spain vs. Germany. Usually, a match of this caliber is reserved for deep into the knockout stage. Now, with Germany’s loss to Japan, there’s even more added drama. A Germany loss and Japan win vs Costa Rica will eliminate Die Mannschaft early for the second World Cup in a row. Meanwhile, Spain got off to an incredible start by defeating Costa Rica 7-0. Let’s look at the odds and see if Spain can continue their momentum in our Spain vs Germany betting analysis.

Team Standings and Odds:

Spain’s biggest win over Germany came just over two years ago, in the UEFA Nations League. Ferran Torres, who scored twice vs. Costa Rica on Wednesday, scored a hat trick as Spain won 6-0. Before that, the teams drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in Stuttgart. The last time Germany beat Spain was in a November 2014 friendly.

Spain are unbeaten in their last five competitive meetings vs. Germany. La Furia Roja defeated Germany in the World Cup in 2010 to advance to the final, which they won over the Netherlands. This will be the fifth World Cup meeting all-time and Germany hold a 2-1-1 edge over Spain.

Spain’s seven-goal outburst vs. Costa Rica on Wednesday marked the most goals they’ve ever scored in a World Cup match. La Furia Roja dominated possession, like the Spain of old, but had a cutting edge in front of goal. Spain were incredibly efficient, with seven goals from eight attempts on target. The 7-0 defeat they handed Costa Rica matched the Ticos’ biggest loss of all-time.

The midfield superiority of Spain in the match was most readily apparent. Despite the precocious Pedri and Gavi clocking in at 19 and 18 years old, respectively, they play well beyond their years. Then again, it must be every player’s dream to play with Sergio Busquets in midfield. The Barcelona veteran is a master of keeping things simple and doing things that don’t end up in the box score. Pedri was pulling the strings in midfield while Gavi scored a beautiful volley on his World Cup debut.

Ferran Torres, who’s dating Spain coach Luis Enrique’s daughter, also repaid Enrique’s faith in him with two goals. Usual number nine Alvaro Morata, who was nursing an injury, came off the bench to add Spain’s seventh and final goal. Our Spain vs Germany betting analysis wouldn’t be complete without mentioning Dani Olmo. The RB Leipzig man is an incredibly clever player and his first touch before his opening goal was sublime. Spain’s defense didn’t concede a single shot but Rodri at center back appears to be a bit of a makeshift solution.

In some ways, Germany’s opening match loss to Japan was a lot like their defeat to Mexico in 2018. Then-defending World Cup champions Germany got off 26 shots and put nine on target but failed to score. Hirving Lozano scored with one of Mexico’s only good chances to put away the Germans. Against Japan on Wednesday, Germany also shot 26 times and put nine on target. They failed to score from open play as Ilkay Gundogan scored from the penalty spot to take the lead.

Germany were dominant vs. Japan for long stretches of the game. Kai Havertz had a goal called back for offside that certainly would have changed the complexion of the game. The dominance didn’t translate into goals, though. Instead, Japan hung around and took two second half chances beautifully to pull off a shock 2-1 upset. Now, Germany very likely need to win this match to advance to the knockout stage.

Their odds to advance have taken a serious hit. A Spain vs Germany betting analysis notes Germany opened at -1000 odds to advance and +110 odds to win the group. However, those numbers have fallen to +180 and +600, respectively. Germany need to be better in front of goal vs. a Spain team that can certainly make them pay. Germany forward Leroy Sane missed the match vs. Japan due to injury but he may be in contention for Sunday.

Match Analysis and Odds:

The Qatar 2022 betting odds for this match haven’t moved too much despite Wednesday’s events. Spain opened as -120 favorites as a pick’em and now show a -130 price. Meanwhile, Germany’s pick’em odds have moved slightly from even to +110. This reflects a couple of factors. Despite the loss, Germany’s potential was clear to see vs. Japan and they can hurt teams in a lot of ways. Die Mannschaft have one of the few midfields in this competition that can go toe-to-toe with Spain’s. Also, this is now a must-win match for Germany, while Spain have significantly more leeway.

Germany come in at +180 odds to win. A draw opened up at +240 but is now listed at +265

If Germany lose and Japan defeat Costa Rica, it’ll be the first time Germany miss out on successive knockout stages in team history. Spain show +140 odds to hold up their end of the bargain, while Germany come in at +180 odds to win. A draw opened up at +240 but is now listed at +265. That could be due to the fact that Germany will have to commit numbers forward if the game is level. The first knockout stage tiebreaker is goal difference, and Spain are already at +7, so a draw very likely won’t be enough for Germany.

Despite Spain battering Germany 6-0 in the last meeting, this fixture is usually a low scoring one. Five of the last six meetings have ended with two or fewer goals scored. That trend is likely to be bucked again, at least according to the odds. Over 2½ goals shows a -135 price, while the under is listed at +115 odds. Spain would undoubtedly love to eliminate Germany but don’t expect Hansi Flick’s side to go down without a fight.

Spain vs Germany FAQ

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