The Kentucky Derby attracts bettors from all around the world, but you need a Kentucky Derby betting strategy to find the best value.
There are no standout favorites in the 2022 edition, but there is a torrid battle between Epicenter and Zandon to be the race favorite.
The Run for the Roses is a wide-open contest and there is plenty of value to be snapped up with the sportsbook.
Mo Donegal, Mo Value
There has been a lot of talk about the likes of Epicenter and Zandon, who have strong winning chances. However, Mo Donegal is a value runner.
The 3-year-old son of Uncle Mo won the Grade II Wood Memorial, which can be an excellent Kentucky Derby form guide, and current Kentucky Derby odds have him at a generous +1100.
Mo Donegal already has a win over Zandon in the Grade II Remsen, so he has beaten the second favorite and that counts for plenty.
He has yet to race at Churchill Downs, but the Todd Pletcher-trained runner will be well-adjusted to the conditions.
Mike Repole has just joined the ownership, which means he has a powerhouse ownership group who wants to see a Kentucky Derby win on Saturday.
“We couldn’t be happier than we are to have Mike Repole join us as a partner in Mo Donegal’s quest to win the Kentucky Derby,” Donegal Racing president Jerry Crawford told Blood Horse. “With Donegal bringing 300 partners and friends to the Derby and Mike bringing his entourage, Mo will have more support than the New York Mets.”
There is little wrong with Mo Donegal’s form and he could go under the radar. He’s at the top of our Kentucky Derby betting strategy in terms of value, so include him in your selections.
Messier Goes into Mix
We’re not ready to rule out Messier, who was beaten in the Santa Anita Derby by stablemate Taiba.
The former Bob Baffert-trained colt is now in the hands of Tim Yakeen. We think he had an off day at Santa Anita, so bettors get value Kentucky Derby odds.
Messier looked much better when winning the Robert B. Lewis, and even his run for second in the Los Alamitos Futurity is a good form guide.
We like his action and he has been specked at each-way odds over the last week. He drifted to +1300 at one stage but has firmed into +900, which is still a fair price for the son of Empire Maker.
Our horse racing strategy features Messier as a top each-way chance and he could boost Kentucky Derby betting payouts.
Epicenter Could Explode
We don’t think there will be much ground covering the majority of the field, but Epicenter could be the runner pulling away near the post.
The favorite has an explosive turn-of-foot and he hasn’t done anything wrong in his preparation for the Kentucky Derby.
The Steven Asmussen-trained colt won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby in fine style and we expect the form out of those races to stack up well.
He has been the most visually impressive runner so far and, although yet to win at the top level, that could all change.
Epicenter’s odds have drifted from +350 to +450 despite getting a favorable post position, so he’s another value runner.
We expect his odds to be around the +450 mark on race day as we think bettors will rally around the early favorite. Our Kentucky Derby betting strategy features Epicenter in win, place, quinella and trifecta wagers, so he’s a must-have.Follow us on Twitter