Mage Faces Short Odds as Triple Crown Contender, Preakness the Tough One
Fired Up for Fantastic Odds as Preakness Stakes Runs Saturday

There have been significant Triple Crown line movements following a number of withdrawals from the Preakness Stakes on Saturday.
A growing, and worrying trend, continues in 2023 as many of the Kentucky Derby entrants aren’t lining up in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
However, Mage could add his name to the list of Triple Crown horse winners, which makes for an exciting contest.
Preakness Stakes
Location: Pimlico Race Course
Day/Time:
All Eyes on Mage
There is only one runner with a chance to win the Triple Crown, so it’s natural for Triple Crown line movements to see plenty of action.
Mage scored a gutsy win in the Kentucky Derby and was installed as the +300 favorite to win the Preakness Stakes with early betting markets. However, after the withdrawal of two top contenders, he’s now into +150.
Where does that leave his Triple Crown chances? Bookmakers have Mage at +600 to win all three legs, including the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes, which isn’t a bad price considering.
Co-owner Ramiro Restrepo talked to rider J.J. Delgado, who said he is thriving in track work.
“He said he hasn’t lost any luster from his pre-Kentucky Derby training. He feels a lot of horse under him,” Restrepo said. “The horse is just thriving right now. J.J. – who we trust so much because he’s the F1 practice driver; he’s in the cockpit – feels the horse is just full of himself. He hasn’t missed any meals. He hasn’t missed any shredded carrots or mints. Everything you could ask for he’s given us all the green lights.”
It wasn’t the strongest Derby field of all time, but it’s usually the best form guide for the Preakness Stakes.
Everyone wants to see the Triple Crown on the line in New York, so it’s an important race in the history of thoroughbred racing in the United States.
First Mission on a Mission
We would love to see Mage win, but sometimes dreams don’t come true for connections.
A reason why Mage isn’t shorter with Triple Crown line movements is that First Mission was accepted into the field.
First Mission is trained by Brad Cox, who opted to bypass the Kentucky Derby. The 3-year-old by Street Sense comes off consecutive wins, including a victory in the Grade III Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
Finishing third in that race was Disarm, who is a +800 chance to win the Preakness. First Mission is a +250 chance, so there is plenty of confidence in betting markets.
Horses that bypass the Derby are always a good chance in the Preakness. The Derby is a grueling contest, so First Mission is the much fresher horse, and he could spoil the Triple Crown party.
“It seems like good timing. He’s also a horse—we’ve done a lot with him in a short period of time,” Cox said. “I told somebody yesterday, this is the next step for him, but I do think he is a big horse with a big future.
“This is part of the process of letting him develop. Hopefully, we can dream a little bit and he could be a horse to take us to a Jim Dandy (G2), a Travers (G1), or even a (Breeders’ Cup) Classic (G1), who knows? We’ll see where we stand next weekend.”
Projected Triple Crown Odds
Should Mage win the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, we expect his odds to be around +120 to win the Triple Crown.
Often winning the final leg is the hardest due to the drop in distance, but we see the field depleting even further, which makes it easier on the Derby winner.
With that being said, +600 is a good price for Mage. He’s a +150 chance to win this Saturday, and he’ll be the firm favorite to win the Belmont, so it makes sense to back him to win now.
It comes with risk, but it’s a better price than we expected.
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