Taiba Headlines Kentucky Derby Betting Preview
Odds Continue to Shift for Run for the Roses
Our Kentucky Derby betting preview looks at where the money is going for the Run for the Roses in May.
The biggest race in North America features an even betting field, but there have been some standout market moves throughout the week.
Taiba Consistently Firming
There are always betting moves for unbeaten runners and the 2022 Kentucky Derby is no different.
Bettors have come for the Tim Yakeen-trained Taiba, who won on debut at Santa Anita before taking out the Grade I Santa Anita Derby in just his second start.
The son of Gun Runner has attracted most of the attention with betting on the Kentucky Derby. He was on the third line of betting last week but is now outright second at +650.
He moved ahead of White Abarrio as the second favorite, behind only Epicenter, who continues to head betting markets at +450.
We’re not surprised by the odds shift for Taiba as bettors love unbeaten runners. The last unbeaten runner to win the Kentucky Derby was Nyquist in 2016.
It’s a wide-open contest this year, but we wouldn’t be leaving Taiba out of our Kentucky Derby betting preview picks.
No Support for One-Time Favorite
Messier was the Kentucky Derby favorite at one stage, but he’s drifting in markets and he could become a value pick.
The stablemate to Taiba, and fellow former Bob Baffert-trained runner, Messier hasn’t done much wrong. He has finished second in two of his last three races, which came behind Taiba and Slow Down Andy.
Our concern is that he doesn’t handle high-pressure racing as well as his rivals, but those who bet on horse racing are getting value odds.
The 3-year-old son of Empire Maker firmed into favoritism following a win in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita, but he drifted massively after losing to Taiba last start.
It could be an overreaction from bookmakers, so Messier is worth a play at the each-way odds.
Eyes on White Abarrio
There is quiet confidence for White Abarrio and he deserves a mention in our Kentucky Derby betting preview.
He was on the second line of betting for most of the lead-up, and despite drifting to +1100, he demands attention.
The son of Race Day has suffered a defeat in only one of his five starts, which came in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club behind Smile Happy.
However, he has since bounced back with consecutive victories in the Holy Bull and Grade I Florida Derby.
Beating the likes of Charge It and Simplification is a good form guide and he looks ready-made for the Kentucky Derby.
It’s not the strongest field ever assembled for the Churchill Downs feature, so thoroughbreds like White Abarrio could be worth following.
There has also been support for Charge It, who finished second in the Florida Derby. Charge It is at +1600 for the Kentucky Derby, so the form out of that race could stack up.