What Are the True Odds of a Triple Crown Winner?
The Biggest Prize in US Racing
When it comes to Triple Crown winners, there haven’t been many in the long history of horse racing.
It’s what makes it so exciting when the Kentucky Derby is run because the winner automatically has a chance to win to Triple Crown.
Kentucky Derby odds expect Forte to be the main chance of winning, but anything can happen in this crazy sport.
It’s Not Easy
Despite there being two Triple Crown winners in the last eight years, it’s not an easy feat.
There have been only 13 Triple Crown winners in the extensive history of the race, which kicked off with Sir Barton winning in 1919 and most recently Justify winning in 2018.
There was an extremely long gap between winners from 1978 when Affirmed won, to 2015 when American Pharoah scored one of the greatest Triple Crown wins of all time.
The odds of a Triple Crown being won are around 1/30,000, which makes the odds at the sportsbook seem a touch undervalued.
Bookmakers have odds of +1000 for the Triple Crown to be won in 2023, so the odds don’t match up with the statistics. However, it is becoming slightly easier to win in modern times.
The depth of the fields isn’t the same as it used to be, which is why we saw Justify win in 2018. After the Kentucky Derby is run, the fields get even more depleted, so it’s possible.
Forte Tipped to Win
There is plenty of hype surrounding Derby favorite Forte, who certainly has the best age-group form heading into the May feature.
He has won two major lead-up races to the Derby, and should he be victorious at Churchill Downs, the Preakness Stakes is well within his reach.
The horse racing standings have Forte at the top of the pile, so without him in the field, the odds for a Triple Crown winner would have been much higher.
Trainer Todd Pletcher isn’t doing anything to dampen the hype surrounding his favorite.
“He just continues to amaze us. He gets better and better,” Pletcher said. “He handled the stretch out to a mile-and-an-eighth and actually probably ran a mile-and-three-sixteenths. It gives you a lot of confidence moving forward.”
The odds for a Triple Crown winner not to be crowned is -2000. That’s a fair price for bettors to include in parlays, but if Forte wins the Derby emphatically, you can bet your bottom dollar he will be the very short favorite to win the Preakness.
Of course, there are other runners with a chance to become one of the 13 Triple Crown winners. However, on the second line of betting is Tapit Trice, who is also trained by Pletcher.
There is a clear stable advantage with Forte, and the confidence out of the camp is palpable. We don’t see any other runner coming out of the pack.
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