Copa del Rey Finals Odds & Preview: Real Madrid vs Osasuna
Real Madrid in First Copa del Rey Final Since 2014
Osasuna Aim to Make History
Real Madrid has been synonymous with European Cup success over the last decade. During that same time, they’ve been on a Copa del Rey drought. Los Blancos last appeared in the final in 2014, when they beat rivals Barcelona 2-1. The 19-time winners will go for their second trophy of the season when they face Osasuna in Seville on Saturday. Osasuna hasn’t been in the final since 2005 and has never won a Copa del Rey, let alone a major title. This is a massive moment for the Pamplona club as a win would mean they take part in next season’s Europa League. Let’s take a look at the latest Copa del Rey Finals odds as Osasuna attempt to make history.
Copa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs Osasuna Game Info:
Real Madrid vs Osasuna
Day/Time: Location: Estadio La Cartuja, Seville, Spain
Streaming: ESPN+
Head-to-Head:
Those betting on the Copa del Rey should note that Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 16 matches vs Osasuna. These teams drew 1-1 at the Santiago Bernabeu back in October as Real Madrid had 2.5 expected goals to Osasuna’s 0.5. More recently, Real won the reverse fixture in Pamplona by a 2-0 scoreline. Fede Valverde and Marco Asensio both scored after the 75th minute to give Real the win. Los Blancos have won eight of the last 11 meetings but three of the last six have ended in draws. This is the first time these two teams are meeting in the Copa del Rey final.
Modric a Doubt for Real Madrid
Key Injuries: D Ferland Mendy, D David Alaba, M Luka Modric
Real Madrid lost 2-0 to Real Sociedad on Tuesday as Luka Modric missed out due to injury. Eduardo Camavinga was also suspended for the match and Karim Benzema rested. While Benzema and Camavinga should certainly be available for the Copa del Rey final, Modric is a doubt. He suffered a thigh strain last week and is doing his best to be fit for Saturday’s match. Real Madrid has been a bit shaky in recent weeks regardless.
They’ve lost two of their last three matches and are set to miss out on the La Liga title to Barcelona. They did, however, defeat Barcelona 4-1 in the Semi-Final, on aggregate. Los Blancos have conceded 2.7 goals per game in their last three matches, as David Alaba and Ferland Mendy have missed time. It’s unclear whether Alaba, who can play center or left back, will suit up, and Mendy looks set to miss out once again.
Still, the Copa del Rey Finals odds price Real Madrid as favorites for the match in Seville. Real don’t typically lose finals but they did fall to Barcelona in the Supercopa de España final in January. A few weeks prior, they defeated Al Hilal 5-3 to take home the FIFA Club World Cup.
Real Madrid is a team built for cup finals, as they’ve won 18 of their last 20 final appearances in all competitions. They are the defending UEFA Champions League winners after all and have tons of experience on their roster. Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr. can cause problems for any defense, while Los Blancos also have Camavinga, Fede Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Toni Kroos to play center midfield if Modric can’t suit up. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is known for being a big game manager and he typically makes decisions well under pressure. All this experience could certainly come in handy on Saturday.
Osasuna Not Used to the Spotlight
Key Injuries: D David Garcia, D Nacho Vidal, M Darko Brasanac
A quick look at the all-time Copa del Rey standings shows that Osasuna has never won the title. They’ll try to make the most of a rare opportunity on Saturday and cap off what has been a solid season for the Pamplona club. Osasuna has already knocked out Real Betis, Sevilla, and Athletic Club from this competition and faces their biggest challenge against Real Madrid. Their form hasn’t been great heading into the final but they are still in the top half in La Liga. Osasuna have lost their last two matches, to Real Sociedad and Barcelona, respectively.
In seven matches vs teams in La Liga’s top four, Osasuna is 0-1-6 this season and the only draw came from Real Madrid in October. So, Osasuna has rarely gotten results vs big teams but anything can happen in a cup final. The thing is, Osasuna have only been here once before when they lost 2-1 in extra time to Real Betis in 2005. While their defense has performed well, only one La Liga team has scored fewer goals than Osasuna this season.
Their backline could take a hit on Saturday as David Garcia is nursing a nose injury and Nacho Vidal is doubtful with an undisclosed issue. Midfielder Darko Brasanac is also out for the season after having knee surgery in mid-April. While Real has five players with ten goal contributions in La Liga alone, Osasuna only has one such player. Chimy Avila has scored eight goals and provided two assists, in all competitions, and is one to watch on Saturday, along with Ez Abde.
Match Analysis and Odds:
Right off the bat, the Copa del Rey Finals odds show that Real Madrid are massive favorites to lift the trophy. They come in at -700 odds to become champions for the first time in almost ten years. Meanwhile, Osasuna is +400 underdogs to get their first-ever major honor. Real Madrid is certainly battle-tested heading into this one. They’ve had to knock out Villareal, Atletico Madrid, and Barcelona just to reach this point. Meanwhile, Osasuna has conceded in six of their seven Copa del Rey matches this season.
For this neutral site clash, Osasuna enters as 1½-goal underdogs and displays -130 odds to cover the spread. Real show even money odds to cover but are -280 moneyline favorites to win the match in 90 minutes. Last year’s final between Real Betis and Valencia finished in a draw and was decided in a penalty shootout. A 90-minute draw is priced at +400 odds, while Osasuna is +650 underdogs here. The last time Osasuna defeated Real Madrid was back in 2011, though.
The name of the game for Real is breaking down a stingy Osasuna defense. If Los Blancos remain patient, they could extend Osasuna’s winless streak vs current La Liga top-four teams. Real has been in more cup finals in the past year than Osasuna has in their club’s history. While Osasuna doesn’t have much to lose here, the pressure could be a factor in this match. Regardless, under three goals display -125 odds for an intriguing Copa del Rey final matchup.
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