La Liga: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Betting Preview

Crosstown Clash Between Rivals Atletico and Real Madrid

The Derbi Madrileño is one of the biggest matches in Spanish soccer and Atletico Madrid host Real Madrid in the first intracity clash of the season, on Saturday. Atletico has its sights set on ending Real’s perfect start to the 2022-23 campaign in front of their home fans. Defending champions Real Madrid have rattled off five straight La Liga wins to open the season. However, star striker Karim Benzema remains injured. We’ll discuss how his absence will affect the match in our Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting preview.

Game Information

• Ligue 1 – Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid.
• Location: Estadio Wanda Metropolitano, Madrid, Spain
• Date & Time: Sunday, September 18, 3:00 P.M. EST
• TV: CBS Sports, Paramount+

Head-to-Head

Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid split their Derbi Madrileño meetings last season. Atleti won 1-0 at home in May after Real Madrid had already clinched the La Liga title. Real won the reverse fixture 2-0. Our Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting preview notes that Atleti is unbeaten in the last three home meetings; however, Atletico Madrid has only won vs. Real at the Wanda Metropolitano once in the last five matches. Three of those five have finished in draws.

Atletico Madrid Drop Midweek Match

• Last La Liga Match: 4-1 W vs. Celta Vigo
• Injuries and Suspensions: GK Jan Oblak (Day-to-Day), D Jose Gimenez (Out), D Sergio Reguilon (Out), D Stefan Savic (Out), M Thomas Lemar (Day-to-Day)

Bayer Leverkusen defeated Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday dropping Atleti to 1-1 in the competition. Atletico managed to keep the game scoreless for 83 minutes but Leverkusen’s Robert Andrich broke the deadlock in the 84th. Leverkusen’s substitutes made the difference as Jeremie Frimpong provided two assists. It was the second time in seven matches, in all competitions, that Atleti was shut out this season.

Atletico comes into Sunday having conceded in their last four matches in all competitions. Having goalkeeper Jan Oblak out for the last few matches doesn’t help, but Ivo Grbic has filled in admirably. Los Colchoneros outperformed the La Liga odds last weekend and easily covered the ½-goal spread on Saturday vs. Celta Vigo. Atletico matched their biggest win of the season so far with a 4-1 drubbing of Celta.

Antoine Griezmann has been consistently coming off of the bench around the 60th minute due to Atletico’s interpretation of a clause in his contract. Barcelona and Atletico Madrid are reportedly close to an agreement that could see Griezmann get more minutes. He’s currently Atletico’s most efficient offensive player, with 1.28 goals + assists per 90 minutes. Alvaro Morata leads Atleti with three goals in five La Liga matches, though.

Real Madrid Running Through the Competition

• Last Serie A Match: 4-1 W vs. Mallorca
• Injuries and Suspensions: D Eder Militao (Out), F Karim Benzema (Out), Lucas Vázquez (Out)

Real Madrid has been the best team in the top five European leagues this season. Coming into the weekend, they’re the only club of 98 with a perfect record. Last weekend, they were trailing Mallorca in the first half but managed to stage a comeback. Fede Valverde scored just before the half and Real added three goals after the 70th minute to win 4-1.

Still, our Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting preview identifies Karim Benzema’s continued absence as a concern. Benzema is the focal point of Madrid’s attack and it’s not easy for another player to step into his shoes. Eden Hazard lasted just an hour up top vs. Mallorca before being substituted out for Luka Modric. Winger Marco Asensio expressed his frustration about sitting on the bench on Sunday and manager Carlo Ancelotti confirmed he has a right to be upset.

With Lucas Vásquez also out, perhaps Asensio, who has one year left on his contract, will get some time here. He scored a wonder goal after coming on as a substitute in Real’s 2-0 Champions League win over RB Leipzig on Wednesday. The win extended Real Madrid’s winning streak to eight matches in all competitions to open up the season.

Odds & Preview

The Real Madrid betting odds are looking a bit different than they usually do this weekend. This is the first time all season they’re priced at longer than even money odds to win. They come into Sunday’s match priced at +160 odds to win. In this pick, ’em, hosts Atletico Madrid are slight +175 underdogs. A draw doesn’t seem so unlikely either, currently sitting at +240 odds.

Real will try to avoid consecutive Derbi Madrileño defeats here for the first time since 1999. A loss wouldn’t be the end of the world but Los Blancos are well aware of their perfect start to the season. This is also an excellent opportunity for some overlooked attacking players to fight for their place. With Benzema out, Real Madrid isn’t as dangerous but Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo can certainly cause problems. Interestingly, Real sits at -170 odds to score one or no goals. If they fail to score multiple goals, it’d be the first time this season it occurs.

These derbies are usually low-scoring affairs, though. In each of the last seven meetings, in all competitions, fewer than three goals have been scored. Under 2½ goals is listed at -115 odds for Sunday’s match. Atletico is used to defending in numbers and Diego Simeone often trots out lineups with seven or eight defensive-minded players. As for Atletico’s offense, they haven’t managed to score two goals or more vs. Real in each of the last nine meetings. As a result, Atletico under 1½  shows -190 odds.