La Liga Matchday 38 Odds, Preview: Teams Battle for Conference League Spot
Nobody Wants Relegated, Who Gets Booted, Who Stays?
Teams Battle for Conference League Spot
Incredibly, nearly every match on La Liga’s final day is consequential for the relegation or European picture. The Champions League teams are all set, as Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Real Socieda make up the league’s top four. Villarreal and Real Betis will also represent La Liga in the Europa League. Meanwhile, six teams are still in the running for seventh place, which confers a Europa Conference League berth. However, Spain will have no Conference League representative if Europa League Champions Sevilla finish seventh. While Elche and Espanyol will go down to La Liga 2, six other teams are scrambling to avoid relegation. Now, let’s take a look at the La Liga Matchday 38 odds from a busy final day.
Tiebreaker Rules/Standings
It is certainly possible that two or more teams finish in a tie for seventh or 18th place on Sunday. In the event two or more teams finish tied in the La Liga standings, the tie will be broken by head-to-head goal difference for all of the clubs in question.
Osasuna, on 50 points, currently occupy seventh place and hold the tiebreaker over Athletic Club. Here’s a look at the standings in the race for the Conference League.
- Osasuna – 50 pts
- Athletic Club – 50 pts
- Girona – 49 pts
- Rayo Vallecano – 49 pts
- Sevilla – 49 pts
- Mallorca – 47 pts
Here’s a look at the relegation picture, with Espanyol and Elche already going down
- Cadiz – 41 pts
- Getafe – 41 pts
- Valencia – 41 pts
- Almeria – 40 pts
- Celta Vigo – 40 pts
- Valladolid – 39 pts
- Espanyol – 36 pts
- Elche – 24 pts
Matches of the Week
Mallorca vs Rayo Vallecano
Date, time:
Both Mallorca and Rayo Vallecano are in the running for a UEFA Europa Conference League berth. They’ll both need a win to make that a reality but the La Liga Matchday 38 odds price visitors Rayo as +125 moneyline favorites.
Mallorca have won the last two meetings even though they’re +220 underdogs. Rayo did get a big win vs. Villarreal last weekend to stay in the European hunt. However, both teams have won just two of their last five matches.
In this pick’em, Rayo sit at -150 odds to cover and Mallorca pk displays +130 odds. Mallorca’s Vedat Muriqi is one of the league’s top-six scorers this season, with 14 goals.
In what should be an incredibly fiery match, under 2.5 goals are priced at -145 odds. A draw won’t be enough for either team to qualify for Europe but one comes in at +230 odds.
Real Sociedad vs Sevilla
Date, time:
Sevilla won yet another European final on Wednesday as they took down AS Roma in penalties in the Europa League. Previously fighting for seventh place just to make the Conference League, Sevilla have now sealed a Champions League berth.
In fact, both Real Sociedad and Sevilla will participate in the UCL next season. This match could still be consequential for the European race if Sevilla win and overtake the other teams around them in the La Liga table. Should Sevilla finish seventh, Spain will have no participant in the Conference League next season.
So, the five other teams gunning for seventh will hope 11th-placed Sevilla have a Europa League hangover. The odds imply that could be the case as hosts Sociedad currently show -130 ATS and moneyline odds.
Sevilla +0.5 comes in at even odds as it’s unclear whether Jose Luis Mendilibar will rest some of his key players.
Sevilla are also +330 moneyline underdogs heading into Sunday’s match and a draw displays +290 odds. Real Sociedad have found the net in their last six games as the oddsmakers price 2.5 goals at -115.
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
Date, time:
With a win on Sunday, Real Madrid will finish in second place in La Liga. They’re one point ahead of rivals Atletico Madrid heading into the final day. Regardless, Real will be back in the Champions League where they belong. Athletic Club, on the other hand, are fighting for seventh. Recent La Liga scores have not gone Athletic’s way as they’ve lost four of their last five matches.
Here, Real are -105 ATS and moneyline favorites and Los Blancos have won their last two matches. Still, Karim Benzema and Vinicius Jr. are questionable for the season finale. Bilbao +0.5 shows -115 odds as they’re coming off an embarrassing home loss to last-placed Elche.
A draw may be enough for Athletic to come in seventh and for Real to finish second and it displays +290 odds. Meanwhile, the odds price Bilbao as +245 moneyline underdogs and under three goals at -130 odds.
Osasuna vs Girona
Date, time:
Osasuna would clinch seventh place with a win over Girona on Sunday. A European berth would cap off a fine season for the Copa del Rey finalists. Girona have also had an excellent season after sealing promotion from La Liga 2 last season. However, they’re winless in their last four matches heading into this one. As a result, Osasuna are +110 ATS and moneyline favorites.
Girona can still potentially finish in seventh place with a win but are +240 underdogs here. They do, however, show -130 odds to cover the 0.5-goal spread.
Osasuna need to be mindful of Girona forward Valentin Castellanos, who scored four goals vs. Real Madrid not long ago. Girona have found the net in their last seven matches as both over and under 2.5 goals display -110 odds. Meanwhile, a draw is priced at +245 odds.
Real Betis vs Valencia
Date, time:
No matter the result on Sunday, Real Betis will finish the season in sixth place in La Liga. They’ve managed a relatively strong finish to the campaign, with three wins in their last five. Meanwhile, Sunday’s opponents Valencia are embroiled in the relegation fight.
They are two points ahead of the drop as things stand, though. Valencia also won the reverse fixture vs. Betis, 3-0.
In this pick’em, Valencia come in at -125 odds to cover and Betis show +105 ATS odds. Valencia last won at Betis in 2019 and are +140 moneyline favorites here. Meanwhile, Betis are +180 underdogs and a draw stands at +250 odds. Both Betis and Valencia matches have typically been low scoring this season but over 2.5 goals display -140 odds here.
Celta Vigo vs Barcelona
Date, time:
Barcelona sealed the La Liga title a few weeks ago and are coasting to the finish line. This game marks the end of an era for the champions as it will be Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba’s last match with the club. This is also a very significant match for Celta Vigo, who will be relegated if they lose and Valladolid win vs. Getafe.
The La Liga Matchday 38 odds list this match as a pick’em even though Celta are winless in their last six matches. Celta pk sits at +115 odds as Barcelona show -135 ATS odds on the road. Barcelona have won their last two matches vs. Celta as well and are +130 favorites for Sunday’s match.
Should Barcelona keep a clean sheet, they’ll equal the record for fewest goals conceded in a La Liga season. Regardless, over 2.5 goals are priced at -130 odds. Meanwhile, Celta Vigo are +180 underdogs and a draw comes in at +275 odds.
Espanyol vs Almeria
Date, time:
Espanyol are on their way down to La Liga 2 for the second time in the last four seasons. They can potentially bring Almeria down with them with a win on Sunday. Almeria enter the weekend just one point ahead of 18th-placed Valladolid but they hold a tiebreaker over Celta Vigo.
Almeria also defeated Espanyol 3-1 earlier this season. Unfortunately for Almeria, two forwards are out. Leo Baptistao is injured and Luis Javier Suarez will serve the final match of a two-game suspension.
Even with a couple of key names out, Almeria are +135 moneyline favorites. The match is also a pick’em, with Espanyol pk coming in at +110 odds and Almeria showing -130 ATS odds. Almeria have managed to win two of their last five matches but have failed to score in their last two games.
Espanyol have conceded over 2.5 goals per game over their last five matches, though. So, over three goals display -125 odds here. Other notable selections on the odds board are a draw at +265 and Espanyol’s moneyline, at +180 odds.
Elche vs Cadiz
Date, time:
Elche will finish in last place in La Liga this season, no matter the result on Sunday. The range of possibilities for Cadiz, on the other hand, are much wider. They can finish anywhere from 13th to 18th this weekend, depending on other results.
A draw at Elche will almost certainly keep Cadiz in La Liga and one stands at +230 odds. Like plenty of other matches on the La Liga schedule on Sunday, this one is a pick’em.
Elche and Cadiz both currently come in at identical ATS and moneyline odds. Elche pk and Cadiz pk display -110 odds, while their moneylines are +165. Interestingly, Elche have got a relegation bump in recent weeks. They’re unbeaten in their last four matches, which includes two victories.
Cadiz have also won two of their last three games and beat Celta Vigo 1-0 last weekend. Elche have scored in their last six matches as over 2.5 goals are priced at -115 odds.
Valladolid vs Getafe
Date, time:
Valladolid may very well need a win on Sunday to pull off a great escape. A Valladolid win over Getafe could even lead to Getafe’s relegation, depending on other results. A draw will only be enough for Valladolid to stay in La Liga if Celta Vigo lose vs. Barcelona. Meanwhile, a draw would be a sufficient result for Getafe and one sits at +225 odds.
Valladolid have won their last three matches vs. Getafe and are +120 ATS and moneyline favorites here. Getafe have won their last two matches to escape the relegation zone but are +235 underdogs.
Getafe +0.5 does, however, show -140 odds. Neither team has averaged over a goal per game over their last five games but over two goals come in at -145 odds.
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