Spanish Supercup: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Semifinal
Madrid Derby in Saudi Arabia

Atletico Responsible for Real’s Sole Loss in 2023-24
It’s been business as usual for Real Madrid in the 2023-24 season. They’re on top of La Liga, they finished the Champions League group stage perfect and can still win four trophies this season. However, Atletico Madrid, who are the only team to defeat Real so far, stand in Los Blancos’ way on Wednesday. The two sides will contest a Madrid Derby in Saudi Arabia in the Supercopa de España Semifinal. The winner will advance to Sunday’s final and face Osasuna or Barcelona. Let’s look at the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Semifinal odds ahead of the match.
Head-to-Head
Atletico Madrid handed Real Madrid their lone loss of the 2023-24 season in September. Alvaro Morata scored twice vs. his former club as Atletico ended with a massive 3-1 derby win. Atleti were +180 soccer betting underdogs for this edition of the Derbi Madrileño. Real was previously unbeaten in the last three matches, in all competitions. Los Blancos have only lost two of the previous 13 meetings and defeated Atletico in penalties in the 2020 Supercopa de España final.
Real Madrid Excelling Despite Injuries
Real Madrid has played two games and picked up two wins to kick off 2024. Last Wednesday, a shorthanded Real hosted Mallorca but managed to come away with a 1-0 win as Antonio Rudiger scored the game’s only goal. On Saturday, Turkish wonderkid Arda Guler finally made his Real Madrid debut in the Copa del Rey at fourth-tier side Arandina. Guler impressed, and Los Blancos came away with a 3-1 win.
Joselu opened up the scoring with a penalty as Brahim Diaz and Rodrygo also got themselves on the scoresheet. Next up on Real Madrid schedule is a trip to Saudi Arabia for the Supercopa de España Semifinal vs. rivals Atletico Madrid. Real is on a 19-game unbeaten streak, in all competitions, heading into Wednesday’s match even with some serious injury concerns. The Real Madrid standings show Los Blancos are in first place in La Liga at the moment, with a 15-3-1 record.
All of David Alaba, Eder Militao, and Thibaut Courtois remain out with ACL injuries. Alaba and Militao are two of Carlo Ancelotti’s top center backs, which means Nacho and Antonio Rudiger should receive the bulk of the minutes there going forward. Meanwhile, Lucas Vazquez and Ferland Mendy are also out. Vinicius Junior is still working his way back from injury but may feature on Wednesday.
No Added Motivation Needed for Atletico
Atletico Madrid also picked up a 3-1 victory vs. a lower-league side in the Copa del Rey on Saturday. Atletico defeated Lugo on the road as Memphis Depay scored twice and Atletico cruised to victory. Diego Simeone will hope the victory vaults Atletico out of the relatively rough patch of form they’re currently in. Before the Lugo match, they had won just one of their last four games. In Atletico’s first match of 2024, they conceded four times to Girona and fell 4-3.
Regardless, Los Colchoneros need no added motivation for this Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Semifinal. They’ll undoubtedly want to hand rivals Real Madrid their second loss of the season here and have a chance to win silverware. Even though Atleti haven’t been at their defensive best lately, they’ve scored three goals in three of their last four games. Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann have been their biggest scoring threats.
The duo has combined for 33 goals this season already and no other Atletico player has scored more than five times this season. Griezmann and Morata both started Saturday on the bench and should be fresh for Wednesday’s match. Midfielder Rodrigo de Paul is another key player to watch for Atletico Madrid. While Reinildo Mandava is away on international duty, Pablo Barrios and Thomas Lemar are out injured.
Match Analysis & Odds
Bettors should note this match is being played at a neutral site even though Real Madrid is listed as the home team. While Simeone rested some of his key players on Saturday and brought them on in the second half, Ancelotti kept some of his on the bench completely vs. Arandina. Luka Modric, Jude Bellingham, Antonio Rudiger, and Dani Carvajal all sat out on Saturday and should be good to go for this Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Semifinal.
Real Madrid, who are in excellent form, are +105 ATS and moneyline favorites for this one. They have made the final in each of the last two editions of the Supercopa de España as well. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid last made the final in 2020 and are +250 underdogs here. A draw also comes in at +255 odds but only one of the last nine derbies has finished all square.
Bettors can take Atletico +0.5 at -135 odds as they look to avoid defeat vs. Real for a third straight match. Both over 2.5 and under 2.5 goals sit at -115 odds for this one but both teams have scored in each of the last four matchups. Wednesday’s winner will most likely face Barcelona on Sunday but Osasuna shouldn’t be completely discounted.
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