Brest Nearing First Ever UCL Qualification

Odds and UEFA Qualification Scenarios in Toulouse vs Brest Preview

Toulouse Coming off Win vs PSG

Brest’s progress under Eric Roy has been remarkable. Before this season, the Pirates have never finished higher than eighth in Ligue 1. On Sunday, they’ll be playing for third place when they head to Toulouse for the final Ligue 1 Matchday.

If Brest win and Lille draw or lose vs. Nice, or if Brest draw and Lille lose, Brest will finish in third place and qualify for the Champions League Group Stage for the first time. However, Toulouse have lost just one of their last seven Ligue 1 matches. We’ll discuss Brest’s chances to make their maiden UCL debut in our Toulouse vs Brest preview.

Toulouse vs Brest

Date & Time: Sunday, May 19th, 3:00 p.m. ET
Location: Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse, France

Head-to-Head

Brest are unbeaten in their last five Ligue 1 games vs. Toulouse, with a 2-3-0 record in them. In October’s reverse fixture, Brest’s Martin Satriano scored a stoppage time equalizer in a 1-1 draw. Our Toulouse vs Brest preview also notes that both teams have scored in each of the last five meetings. Toulouse last beat Brest in a Ligue 1 match in 2013.

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Toulouse Faring Worse at Home Than on Road

Toulouse’s recent Ligue 1 scores have been impressive as they look to finish in the top 10 spots in the league. Last Sunday, Toulouse took on champions PSG and Kylian Mbappe but the Parisians up 1-0 off a long ball from keeper Arnau Tenas.

Thijs Dallinga scored his 14th goal of the season to equalize for visiting Toulouse. Despite an onslaught from PSG, Toulouse managed to hold firm and got two more goals of their own. Yann Gboho scored a brilliant curler and substitute Frank Magri made it a 3-1 win for Toulouse.

It marked TFC’s record eighth road victory of the campaign and they also ended PSG’s 26 game Ligue 1 unbeaten run in the process. While Toulouse have won their last four road games and have lost just one of their last seven matches, they haven’t won any of their last four at home. They’ve gone 8-3-6 on the road but they’re only 3-7-6 at the Stadium de Toulouse in 2023-24.

Toulouse enter the weekend in 11th place but could move up to 10th with a win and Reims draw or loss vs. Marseille. Dallinga made his debut for the Netherlands national team late last year and he ranks sixth in Ligue 1 in goals. Gboho has scored in two of his last three matches but was subbed off due to an injury late vs. PSG. His status is worth monitoring and bettors should also be aware that defender Moussa Diarra is suspended.

Brest’s Form Tailing Off

Brest had to make do without key players Romain del Castillo and Pierre Lees-Melou in last Friday’s French Ligue 1 match vs. Reims. Brest ended up falling behind as Reims’ Marshall Munetsi headed in a cross. Lilian Brassier did the same for Brest in first half stoppage time and scored his second goal in three matches. Brest pushed for a winner but the match finished all square at one.

Due to the draw, Brest moved down one place to fourth in the Ligue 1 standings. Note that Brest cannot finish below fourth place, which confers a spot in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round. However, Eric Roy’s men will want to win and give themselves a chance to qualify directly for the Group Stage. Brest’s form has tailed off a fair bit in recent weeks.

They’ve taken just five points from their last five games and have won just one of those fixtures. Brest have drawn back-to-back matches and they’ll have to make do without Lees-Melou again on Sunday. The midfielder fractured his fibula vs. Nantes a couple weeks ago and Del Castillo, Brest’s leading scorer, is doubtful. Bradley Locko, who has started every match this season in defense, is out suspended.

Match Analysis & Odds

Brest were right up there with Nice a month ago as the two best defenses in the league. However, Toulouse vs Brest previews note that the Pirates have been conceding quite a bit lately. They gave up just 0.7 goals per game in their first 27 matches but have conceded 2.3 goals per match in their last six.

Toulouse haven’t exactly been great defensively either, as they’ve conceded in each of their last five games. Here, over 2.5, 3 goals are priced at -120 odds. With so much to play for, Brest are -115 favorites for Sunday’s match. Toulouse are +295 underdogs, while a draw is priced at +300.

With how poor Toulouse have been at home, it’s no surprise they have just a 24.5 percent implied chance to win. However, Brest have some prominent absentees and they have struggled to score goals in their last two games. Perhaps they’ll rise to the occasion on the final Matchday of the season, though.


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