MLB July 10th Weekly Home/Road Betting Report

Road Teams Crushed Bookmakers for First Time in Eight Weeks

This is the week of change. Last week, we saw weeks of losing by MLB underdogs come to an end and now the same can be said for road teams after a 50-45 record which produced 8.76 units of profit. That chipped away at a massive season-long deficit that we’ll discuss later.

Bettors who pay less attention to who are the best teams in the MLB standings today and instead put their focus on in-season trends and streaks will be better for it come October.

Today we look at the week while diving into some trends you may not be thinking of and finishing it with a 2024 overview. Let’s get into our July 10th weekly home/road report.

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Tread Lightly Until We Know The Tide Has Turned

For bettors that follow trends, we know the next few days are touch and go because we can see a shift in betting patterns, and like a stock broker we want to make sure this is a trend before changing our betting habits. Over the previous seven days, road teams have won 52.63% of their games (+8.76 units).

To give that proper perspective, the last time road teams turned a profit was May 8th-14th (+7.96). After that home teams went on a 365-288 (.559) run that produced 18.67 units based on one-unit wagers until the previous seven days. Now we’re left to figure out if this is a one-time result or is a trend we must adapt our betting style to.

The next few days will begin to give us our answer. The week was so good for road teams that they turned a profit as an underdog (+6.49) and a favorite (+2.28).

So who were the biggest winners for the public? The Arizona Diamondbacks were tops with a 4-1 mark producing 4.35 units, followed by the Detroit Tigers at 4-1 but just 3.94 units won, and the Cincinnati Reds (2-0) +3.15.

The week wasn’t great for every road team with the Tampa Bay Rays (-3.11) and the Los Angeles Angels (-2.64) both putting up 1-4 records, followed by the New York Mets (-2.40) at 2-4.

As you pour over your free MLB odds page, our advice would be to scale your betting back until there is a clear picture of what the upcoming week will look like if you follow home/road or favorite/underdog trends.

Public Takes a Small Loss With Change In Direction

Last week, the betting public won more than they lost again with a 50-41 (.550) record but that wasn’t good enough to produce a profit with 2.14 units lost. That was the first losing week for the public on the moneyline since June 12th-19th (-661 units).

Then the public went on a 118-75 (.611) streak that resulted in 17.91 units of winnings. That’s what happens when home teams, and more specifically home favorites, dominate the winners’ circle.

Teams receiving 80%-89% of the moneyline dollars were just 10-11 last week, seizing 3.33 units from bettor’s bankrolls. Home teams getting 80%-89% of the money were 5-7 (-3.04) while road teams were over .500 (5-4) but still failing to turn a profit (-0.29).

Again, wait to see if the 80-89 is a trend or a bump in the road because overall in 2024, teams getting more than 80% of the money are a healthy 471-309 (.604) +21.87 units. If this holds, it will be the first season since 2018 (+2503) where teams getting over 80% of the money will have turned a profit.

Guardians, Orioles Still Leading The Pack

Bettors tend to look at trends as a whole but we say every week that when you’re making your MLB picks today look at each club as a stock, because that’s what they are. There has been no better stock to put your money behind in 2024 than the Cleveland Guardians (57-33) who have quietly produced 17.32 units.

Cleveland has smashed books this season behind an incredible 41-17 mark as a favorite (+13.53) and even better as a home favorite (28-9, +1118 units). Behind the Guardians is the Baltimore Orioles (57-34) with 10.74 units won and then the Milwaukee Brewers (53-39) with +9.36 units won.

The Orioles are 28-16 (+8.06) on the road this year, a trend that’s been great for bettors because we get some diluted numbers rather than paying a massive price with the O’s at home. The Brewers have been an incredible 21-19 as an underdog (+6.14) and 27-14 (+7.46) at home.

That’s it for your July 10th weekly home/road report, all the best with your MLB picks and parlays this week.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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