2023 MLB Run Lines Betting: Buy Baltimore, Fade New York
National League co-favorite owns MLB's worst run-line record
Memorial Day weekend is upon us, the first “unofficial” benchmark of the MLB season. With that in mind, we break down the best and worst teams against the run line to this point. Here’s a closer look at the 2023 MLB runlines betting market.
Orioles Flying High
Despite their record-setting start, the Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been able to create much separation atop the American League East. Hot on their heels are the Baltimore Orioles, sitting just three backs game from the division leader at 33-17.
The Orioles seem to be picking up steam, too. They’re 11-5 over their last 16 games, including series victories over the Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees. Altogether, their 33-17 record against the run line is the best in baseball, edging 31-18 Texas. The Orioles are also 21-6 against the run line on the road. That, too, leads the majors.
What’s behind Baltimore’s success? Start with the backend of the bullpen. Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista have emerged as one of baseball’s best late-inning duos, allowing just six earned runs over 51.2 combined innings. The Orioles have the third-best ERA (3.20) from the seventh inning or later, per MLB stats.
Nats Beating the Odds
The Washington Nationals — yes, the Washington Nationals — currently own the third-best record against the run line at 31-19, including 17-5 on the road. That’s surprising because, well, the Nationals haven’t been very good. They’re about where many expected them to be heading into Memorial Day weekend: 21-29 with a minus-24 run differential. That’s good for last place in the National League East.
Through 50 games, the Nationals have a cover rate of 62%. The two teams ahead of them (Orioles and Rangers) both have winning records, as do the three teams below (Rays, Diamondbacks, Dodgers). Given that, the Nationals seem due for regression in the 2023 MLB runlines betting market.
Bottoms Up for Mets, Royals
Unquestionably, the New York Mets have been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments. The Mets are just 26-25, 5.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. That includes a 5-11 mark against the lowly Nationals, Tigers, Rockies, and Reds. Obviously, owner Steve Cohen expected much more return on his investment after raising the team’s payroll to a record $346 million this season. Remember, the Mets were priced in spring training at +750 to win the World Series, making them co-favorites in the NL alongside the Dodgers.
Apparently, oddsmakers are still adjusting to New York’s mediocrity. At 18-33, the Mets and Kansas City Royals share the worst record in the 2023 MLB runlines betting market. The Miami Marlins are next in line at 19-32.
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