2024 MLB Home Run Derby Preview and Odds

Pete Alonso Looks For His Third Title

The lineup for the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby at All-Star Week in Texas is set and while it may be missing some of the league’s biggest power hitters — like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani — it still has plenty of exciting names, from two-time winner Pete Alonso to MVP candidate José Ramirez to young phenoms Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. Alonso tops the 2024 Home Run Derby odds as the most “pure” power hitter in this group but, as he was eliminated by Julio Rodríguez in each of the past two Derbies, anything can happen.

Adolis García is an interesting pick to click at his home stadium in Arlington while Henderson is just one homer behind Judge for the league lead, a thoroughly impressive feat for a 23-year-old shortstop in his second full MLB season. It’ll be cool to have all the lights shining on him and Witt Jr. — two current and future faces of the league — with the MLB 2024 schedule paused for a few days.

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Let’s run through all eight Derby contestants, review their odds, and analyze who might be worth betting on (and who you probably should avoid):

Pete Alonso (+300)

Unsurprisingly, Alonso is the favorite here as a repeat winner (in 2019 and 2021). He did not have a good showing last season, losing in the first round. Alonso has hit 18 home runs this season but is not putting up the kinds of overall power numbers that Mets fans have been accustomed to from him over the course of his career. Still, he’s a major threat and he’s the rare player to really embrace the Derby and always have fun participating.

There’s a reason the 2024 Home Run Derby odds like him and the recent change in format — away from matchups and back to an open first round with the top-four seed advancing to a traditional No. 1 vs. No. 4/No. 2 vs. No. 3 semifinal round — benefits someone like Alonso.

Adolis García (+425)

Like Alonso, García is also having a down year but is one season removed from hitting 39 home runs and having a postseason for the ages in which he went deep eight times in 15 playoff games. He also is familiar with the host stadium, Texas’ Globe Life Field, and is one of the stronger players in baseball on a pound-for-pound basis. García made his first Derby appearance last year, losing in the first round to fellow Cuban Randy Arozarena. At +425, he’s a solid bet here.

Marcell Ozuna (+450)

If you’re making picks and parlays MLB surrounding the Derby, you might want to avoid Ozuna. He is having a huge season, following up his 40-homer 2023 campaign with 24 dingers in 91 games. However, he has a pretty long swing and as someone who hasn’t been in the Derby before, it’s questionable whether his swing will translate to the competition. There have been a bunch of rule changes but there’s still a major time component to the event as, in the opening round, for example, batters have three minutes or 40 pitches to hit, whichever comes first. If you take a while between pitches, you’re at a big disadvantage.

Gunnar Henderson (+500)

Henderson may be the best value pick even though, as a fellow Derby newcomer, there’s always some concern over how the format will affect his power. He has 28 home runs to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2023 and already has 27 home runs this season, so there’s no question about his ability to leave the park. His short swing should help his chances, and he has a good shot to outperform his relatively low 2024 Home Run Derby odds.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+700)

Witt Jr. isn’t as much of a power threat as Henderson — 15 homers this year, 30 last year — but he shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s a pure hitter who is the kind of guy that can do well in this event because he just hits the ball hard a lot. He may wind up with a lot of balls crashing against the wall yet, with the matchup-less first round, he just has to beat out four other contestants. And, with a relatively less-powerful group set to compete in 2024, having such a compact swing could be big.

Teoscar Hernández (+1000), José Ramírez (+1300), Alec Bohm (+1500)

All three of these guys are worthy All-Stars but you wouldn’t necessarily peg any of them as traditional Derby players. Hernández does have 19 home runs on the MLB scoreboard but has cooled off a bit after a hot start with the Dodgers. A big point in his favor is that he strikes out a lot in actual play and because the strikeout is, of course, not an issue during the Derby his power may play up.

Ramírez isn’t thought of as a big home run guy yet he has 23 bombs on the year and is as steady as they come in terms of MLB superstars. He too has a longish swing and may not thrive in the fast-paced Derby setting. At +1300, though, he’s definitely worth a flier.

Bohm is the real outlier of the group as he has gone deep just 11 times after a career-high 20 homers in 2023. He’s a doubles hitter — he leads the Majors with 31 two-baggers — so his inclusion in the field is a strange choice for sure. Weirder things have happened yet it would be a big surprise if he ran the table.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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