2024 MLB Season: Midseason NL East Gambling Report
Phillies Are In Division Driver's Seat
Since we last conducted a NL East gambling report card, not a whole lot has changed at the top or bottom but there have been some shifts in the middle.
The Philadelphia Phillies have expanded their division lead and have the inside track to win their first NL East title since 2011.
At the All-Star break, they have a 8.5-game lead and have pretty much controlled the division right from the start of the 2024 season. The Miami Marlins are still in last place at 30 games under .500, 10.5 games behind fourth place Washington.
The Atlanta Braves are in second and are only four games up on the upstart New York Mets, who used a huge month of July to turn their season completely around.
The Mets are in possession of the third Wild Card spot in the National League and are within striking distance of Atlanta. The Washington Nationals have fallen six games behind the Mets as the MLB scores today and the last few weeks have not gone their way.
Let’s see how each team’s current situation looks with respect to its preseason predictions:
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Philadelphia Phillies (62-34): O/U 90.5 Wins, +300 To Win Division
- Grade: A+
The Phillies’ magical season has only gotten better since we last checked in. They have the best run differential in baseball (+110 runs), had eight players named to the NL All-Star team and show no signs of slowing down.
So, they very much deserve an A+ grade in our NL East gambling report card. Even with injuries to Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto throughout the first half, they have been able to weather the storm thanks to the best starting rotation in baseball.
Philadelphia has also gotten contributions from up and down its lineup. The Phillies are in the top-three in most major offensive categories and, despite having regulars out of the lineup for much of the year, they have remained a relentless scoring team. This group is on a roll and has been for over three months at this point.
Atlanta Braves (53-42) O/U 101.5 Wins,-245 To Win Division
- Grade: B+
The Braves, winners of six-straight NL East titles, are in serious danger of their streak ending this season. The MLB playoffs odds had them as huge favorites to cruise by the rest of the division but the injury to Spencer Strider and surprising lack of offensive production from MLB’s best lineup a season ago has made Atlanta a merely good team instead of an incredible one.
The Braves are still in a great spot to earn a Wild Card playoff berth but the Mets are on their tail potentially having to play in the Wild Card round introduces the possibility of a quick exit.
Atlanta will probably go on a run at some point but if they want to seriously push Philadelphia, the Braves have to make a move sooner rather than later.
New York Mets (49-46): O/U 81.5 Wins, +1000 To Win Division
- Grade: B
At the quarterly NL East Gambling Report Card, the Mets’ grade was ugly. Now, after an incredible June and decent start to July, they look like a completely different teams and are somehow in playoff position with under 70 games left to play.
The offense went from dead in the water to one of the best in baseball over the past month and a half and the starting rotation — still missing ace Kodai Senga — has stabilized itself.
However, the New York bullpen has been dreadful and has cost the Mets a bunch of very winnable games. Right now, that’s the one area of this team holding it back from really competing with the Braves and getting some cushion in the Wild Card race.
Washington Nationals (44-53): O/U 66.5 Wins, +8000 To Win Division
- Grade: C+
The future is still very bright in D.C. but the past few months have been rather dark. The Nationals have pretty much fallen out of the NL Wild Card race and the rotation, still filled with promising young arms, has run into a rough path as MacKenzie Gore, Mitchell Parker, DJ Herz and even Jake Irvin have struggled after hot starts.
The Washington lineup has had issues scoring runs, even with the recent call up of top prospect James Wood.
This type of mid-season fall-off is somewhat to be expected with such a young team. Washington still should easily eclipse its preseason win total. The hopes of a surprise playoff appearance are looking extremely slim, though.
Miami Marlins (33-63): O/U 77.5 Wins, +1600 To Win Division
- Grade: F
There’s not a whole lot to add regarding the Marlins who will be playing out the string for the rest of the season. Today’s MLB games, and the games that have been going on for most of the year, just have not gone Miami’s way.
From the constant pitcher injuries to an offense that is dead-last in home runs and second-to-last in runs scored, on-base percentage and OPS, nothing has gone right for Miami which is just one year removed from a playoff appearance.
Things didn’t get any better in the second quarter of the year and the Marlins looks like a seller having already traded Luis Arráez and likely shipping out Tanner Scott and other veterans in a few weeks. Any momentum this team had from 2023 has long since evaporated away.
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