Astros at Rays Series Preview: ‘Stros Look Like Themselves
Astros vs Rays MLB Predictions Lean on the Former
Even though they are mere percentage points ahead of the Seattle Mariners in the incredibly tight AL West race, the Houston Astros, winners of five games in a row, are cruising right now. They resemble the perennial title contender. It may be tough for them to stay hot this week as they visit the Tampa Bay Rays for three games. Astros vs Rays MLB predictions have them as -130 moneyline favorites and +135 on the runline at -1.5. The total is at 7 runs (-120 Over).
Houston is fresh off an impressive sweep of the Boston Red Sox in which the Astros scored 19 runs. Their starting pitching, bolstered by the deadline acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi, has been great during the recent hot streak.
That’s this team’s formula: Elite high-end offensive talent producing runs to go with a deep rotation. Unfortunately, MLB picks involving the Astros haven’t turned out great so far but that’s largely due to all the pitching injuries Houston has had. Now, they’re getting better performances from top to bottom.
After taking two of three from the Astros in early August, the Rays have lost back-to-back series as their goal of breaking away from within two or three games above/below .500 continues to be evasive. Still, Tampa Bay is a better foe than it might appear because the rotation is good and guys like Brandon Lowe are starting to come around a bit.
Astros at Rays 
⚾️Records: Houston Astros (62-55), Tampa Bay Rays (59-58)
⏰Day/Time: Monday, August 12, 6:50 PM ET
📍Location: Tropicana Field; Tampa, FL
📺Stream: AT&T SportsNet Southwest, Bally Sports Sun
Houston’s Rotation Is Locked In
Despite all of the injuries, the Astros somehow have a middle-of-the-pack starting rotation on the season from a statistical perspective and it’s getting even better.
For Astros vs Rays MLB predictions, it’s important to remember that Houston’s three best healthy pitchers — Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Ronel Blanco — are scheduled to pitch against the Rays and that the return of Valdez, the addition of Kikuchi, and the emergence of Blanco have stabilized a group missing five arms at the moment.
Valdez is as consistent as they come and he’ll be on the mound in Monday’s opener opposite Shane Baz, who is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Then, Kikuchi goes in his third start with Houston. The Astros did give up a lot for him but the early returns are promising because he is striking out almost two batters per innings. Blanco, having an incredible first full year at the age of 30, has been a revelation and is allowing an MLB-low 5.8 hits per nine innings.
The Astros’ staff is only 15th in ERA and is second-to-last in walk rate. But it is also third in strikeout rate and fourth in hit rate.
The issues have been free passes and situational pitching. The promising peripherals show that the rotation ERA should be lower. It’s also nice that MLB weather news won’t matter for them this series because of the Tropicana Field dome.
Offense Is A Struggle For Tampa Bay
The Rays made the curious, but very Rays-like, decision to trade two of their top hitters, Randy Arozarena (in a down year) and Isaac Paredes, at the deadline in a mostly future-looking move which only returned infielder Christopher Morel and reliever Hunter Bigge at the MLB level.
The good news for the Rays for Astros vs Rays MLB predictions is that their offense hasn’t suffered much without those guys. The bad news is that it hasn’t gotten any better.
Tampa Bay is 25th in average, 25th in OPS, 28th in runs scored, and 26th in home runs. Put all of those together and you get an offense that doesn’t hit for much power and, because their on-base percentage is buoyed by being third in the American League in walks, doesn’t get too many hits.
So, the Rays may be able to coax a bunch of bases on balls from a walk-prone Houston rotation but will struggle to make good contact and drive those baserunners in.
Their tenuous position in the MLB AL standings doesn’t figure to get much better unless players besides Lowe (such as Yandy Díaz, Jose Siri, and Morel) step up and help him out. Scoring has been a problem all season for Tampa Bay and, now that the end of the year is coming soon, the Rays are running out of time to make their push.
Go With Valdez And The Astros
- The smart play here is to side with Houston as a -130 favorite. If you love Valdez and think the Astros’ top-ten offense will hit Baz particularly hard — then +135 as -1.5 on the runline is also a solid value.
To be safe, though, the Astros’ moneyline is a good move on the road. Tampa Bay’s bullpen has started to figure things out after a rough start and while Baz still isn’t going deep into games, his stuff has looked good.
The seven-run total does seem low but these are two good pitching teams so the under (even-money) could be the move.
For MLB betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
