Baseball Home Run Leader Odds: What Will HR Record Holder Aaron Judge Do for An Encore?
Guerrero, Alonso Viewed as Top Candidates to Dethrone Aaron Judge as Home Run Champion
Can Angels Sluggers Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani Deliver 50-homer Seasons?
When Roger Maris set the American League record with 61 home runs during the 1961 season, the former New York Yankees slugger hit 33 home runs the following season. That would end up being the third-highest total of his career. However, compared to topping the record held by the iconic Babe Ruth during a magical 1961 campaign, there were questions about why Maris couldn’t approach the numbers of the previous season.
Aaron Judge broke Maris’ record with 62 home runs on his way to becoming the American League Most Valuable Player.
Judge isn’t even the favorite to lead the American League in home runs during the 2023 season, according to the baseball home run leader odds.
Glad to Have Vlad
Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero is priced at +700 to lead the majors in home runs baseball home run leader odds.
When looking at the MLB players statistics, Guerrero led the American League with 48 home runs during the 2021 season.
His batting average dropped from .311 to .274 and that resulted in a drop in his power numbers. He did have more doubles during the 2022 season than he had during the 2021 campaign. However, his home run numbers dropped from 48 to 32.
There could be more pitches for Guerrero to hit with Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt acquired in the offseason. Belt is two years removed from a season with 29 home runs and Varsho has 30-homer potential. Matt Chapman will be back to give the Blue Jays another run producer, so it won’t be all on Guerrero’s shoulders.
Fight for Back Page
It is pretty evident that Mets owner Steve Cohen will stop at nothing to make a run at the World Series and also knock the Yankees off the back page on the New York tabloid newspapers.
Pete Alonso will be at the center of what the Mets are trying to accomplish.
He hit 53 home runs as a rookie in 2018. Over the last two seasons, he had 37 and 40 home runs.
His strikeout ratio has dropped, he struck out once in every 3.3 at-bats as a rookie. That number was 4.7 strikeouts per at-bat last season.
The more Alonso can put the ball in play, the more likely that Alonso can make a run at another season with 50 home runs.
When looking at the baseball home run leader odds, he comes in at +1000 to lead baseball in home runs.
Ready for An Encore
Judge has been a home-run threat since he came into the league. He could easily have another season with 50 home runs.
One concern is how many times teams will pitch to Judge.
Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton combined for 63 home runs last season. They hit .224 and .211 last season and combined to miss 84 games and if those numbers are to be repeated,there will be plenty of walks in Judge’s 2023 MLB season.
He is third in the odds to be the home run champion as he is priced at +1200 according to the baseball home run leader odds to become the first player to lead the American League in home runs in back-to-back seasons since Toronto’s Jose Bautista accomplished the feat in 2010 and 2011.
California Dreaming
Los Angeles Angels teammates and former MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout both come in at +1400 in the home run odds.
Joey Gallo, who joined the Minnesota Twins in the offseason, joins the group at +1400.
Gallo hit 38 homers in 2021. He is coming off a season when he hit just .160. He is can get his average over .200, he could put up some pretty substantial HR numbers.
If Trout can stay healthy, he could put up some gaudy HR numbers as well. He hit 40 homers in 119 games last season. If he had played at all 162, and that is a big if considering Trout’s injury history, he would have been projected to hit 55 homers. His career-high total was 45 in 134 games in 2019.
Ohtani had 46 homers in 2021 when he was the American League MVP. That number dropped to 34 last season.
Matt Olson had to deal with some pressure when he was brought in to replace fan favorite Freddie Freeman as the first baseman and middle-of-the-order hitter with the Atlanta Braves.
With a year under his belt, he should be able to play more freely this season. Olson blasted a career-high 39 home runs in 2021, his final season with the Oakland Athletics.
Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox and Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros both are priced at +1500.
Devers tends to hit more doubles than homers. Could a 40-home run season be within his reach?
Alvarez hit 37 home runs in 490 at-bats so if he can approach 600 at-bats, a season with 50 homers is a definite possibility. When looking at 2023 baseball odds, the Astros are the frontrunners to win the World Series at +600.
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