Blue Jays vs Mets Odds: New York’s Pitching Rounding Into Form

Mets 6-0 When Starter Last's at Least Six

The New York Mets (30-27) and Toronto Blue Jays (30-27) begin a key three-game interleague series on Friday at Citi Field. The Mets are 15-9 at home and have climbed to second place in the National League East, 3.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves.

New York is a -140 favorite to win the series, while Toronto is priced at +115. Let’s take a closer look at the Blue Jays vs Mets odds.

Mets Pitching Heating Up

The Mets’ three-game sweep of NL East rival Philadelphia vaulted them three games above .500 (30-27) for the first time since May 1. Starters Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco and Max Scherzer combined to hold the Phillies to two runs over 20 innings while striking out 22.

New York is 16-0 when its starter goes at least six innings this MLB season. Mets starters have reached that threshold nine times over the last 14 starts, a vast improvement from earlier in the season. The Mets are still bottom 10 in ERA (4.55), but that number should drop now that Scherzer appears healthy.

Three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, one of New York’s big-ticket acquisitions (two years, $86 million) in the offseason, is still rounding into form after missing all of April with a low-grade muscle strain near his pitching shoulder. His best start came May 21 against Cleveland. He allowed only one run on three hits over eight innings. Keep that in mind when assessing the Blue Jays vs Mets odds.

Jays’ Bats Pack a Punch

Toronto boasts one of the most formidable lineups in baseball. The Jays rank third in both batting average (.266) and on-base percentage (.333) and 11th in runs (269). With a run differential of plus-25, the Jays seem primed for positive regression.

Shortstop Bo Bichette has been a catalyst on offense, hitting .332 with 12 home runs and 39 RBI. He leads the majors with 81 hits, and his .368 on-base percentage is tops among shortstops.

Six Blue Jays have hit at least six homers, including third baseman Matt Chapman, outfielder Daulton Varsho, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., outfielder George Springer and catcher Danny Jansen, who is on the 10-day Injured List with a strained right groin.

The Mets have given up the fourth-most homers (76) in the majors, two more than Toronto.

Game 1

  • Justin Verlander vs Chris Bassitt (Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET)

Bassitt returns to face the team he pitched for last season. The 34-year-old right-hander has pitched reasonably well with Toronto (5-4, 3.80 ERA) despite allowing 11 home runs, sixth-most in the majors.

He opposes Verlander, who is coming off arguably the worst start of his abbreviated season. The future Hall of Famer was tagged for six runs on nine hits over five innings in a 10-7 loss to Colorado on May 27.

New York is listed at -1.5 (+140) on the run line and -135 to win outright, with Toronto coming in at +1.5 (-165) and +115. The projected total for the Blue Jays vs Mets odds is 8.5.

Game 2

  • Tylor Megill vs Jose Berrios (Saturday, 4:10 p.m. ET)

Like Bassitt, Megill has struggled to keep opponents in the yard. He’s allowed eight homers in 54 innings, making him a tantalizing matchup for the Blue Jays, who rank top 10 in slugging percentage (.422).

Berrios has given up only one run over the last 12.2 innings. His ERA has dropped to 3.86, more than a full run lower than last season.

Game 3

  • TBA vs Yusei Kikuchi (Sunday, 1:40 p.m. ET)

The Mets are contemplating starting Senga, who has yet to start on regular rest since arriving from Japan. The rookie right-hander has fared significantly better at home (1.20 ERA) than on the road (6.12 ERA).

Senga would face countryman Kikuchi, who is 6-2 with a 4.47 ERA.

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