Braves Look to Continue Some Home Cooking Versus San Diego
Padres vs Braves Run Line Favors Atlanta to Turn the Table on Visiting Padres
The Braves to Lean On Starting Pitchers to Build On Gaudy Home Record
Good luck trying to figure out this San Diego Padres team. After taking a series from the National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres were swept by the lowly Colorado Rockies and outscored 19-7 in the three games. Now they head to Atlanta to meet up with the Braves with the Padres vs Braves run line favoring the host Braves.
San Diego has won four of the last six games against the Braves with two of those wins by one run.
Four of the last six games between the teams have gone under the total.
The MLB betting lines have Atlanta favored to continue its strong play at home with -222 odds to win the series opener with the Padres at +184 to beat Max Fried and the Braves on Friday.
Atlanta is second only behind the Los Angeles Dodgers at +450 in the MLB odds of winning the World Series with the Padres tied for 11th in the championship odds.
Padres vs Braves 
Matchups: San Diego Padres 22-24 at Atlanta Braves 26-15
Day/Time: Friday, 7:20 p.m; Saturday, 7:15 p.m; Sunday, 7 p.m; Monday, 12:20 p.m. all in ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Streaming: Friday – San Diego Padres Network, Bally Sports Southeast; Saturday – FOX; Sunday – ESPN / Monday – San Diego Padres Network, Bally Sports Southeast, MLB Network.
Padres vs Braves Probable Pitching Matchups
- Friday: Matt Waldron (Padres); Max Fried (Braves)
- Saturday: Yu Darvish (Padres); Bryce Elder (Braves)
- Sunday: Randy Vasquez (Padres); Reynaldo Lopez (Braves)
- Monday: Dylan Cease (Padres); Chris Sale (Braves)
Streaky Padres Head to Atlanta
It has been pretty much all or nothing when it comes to recent San Diego Padres games going either over or under the total.
While the Padres were being swept by the Colorado Rockies, all three games went over the total. That ended a run of five straight games for San Diego finishing under the total. The previous three games had all gone over including games with 14 and 15 runs being scored in matchups with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
San Diego’s recent offensive struggles have resulted in some of the games failing to exceed the total as San Diego has scored 25 runs in its last 10 games. Keep that in mind when considering the Padres vs Braves run-line options.
The Padres are fourth in the majors with a .259 team batting average in May but that hasn’t translated into consistent run production.
Six of San Diego’s last nine games against National League East teams went under the total.
Atlanta Pitchers Look to Cash in At Truist Park
The four probable starting pitchers for Atlanta in this series have yet to lose at home this season.
Game 1 starter Max Fried has a 4.73 ERA at Truist Park. However, Bryce Elder, Reynaldo Lopez, and Chris Sale are a combined 7-0 with an ERA of 1.33. That could factor into the Padres vs Braves run-line options in this series.
While the Braves were 52-29 at home during the 2023 regular season, they were in the middle of the MLB stats with a 4.22 ERA. That number has dropped to 3.26 this season as the Braves are 15-5 at home even after losing the series finale to the visiting Chicago Cubs on Wednesday as a result of a rare tough outing for veteran Charlie Morton.
Nine straight games for the Braves went under the total.
Who’s Hot
- Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres P: Darvish has given eight hits and no runs with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings over his last three starts.
- Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves OF: Harris is 6-for-18 with two runs and two RBIs in his last five games.
- Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves P: Sale has won his last five starts. He has allowed 16 hits and two runs with 34 strikeouts in 25 innings over his last four games.
- Donovan Solano, San Diego Padres IF: Solano is 6-for-13 in the four games since making his 2024 debut.
Who’s Not
- Adam Duvall, Atlanta Braves OF: Duvall has three hits in his last 20 at-bats.
- Manny Machado, San Diego Padres IF: Machado is 2-for-30 with 10 strikeouts in his last eight games.
- A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves P: Minter has surrendered four hits and three runs in 2.2 innings in his last four appearances.
- Randy Vasquez, San Diego Padres P: Vasquez allowed eight hits and five runs in 3.2 in his last start to raise his ERA to 6.32.
Padres vs Braves Injury Update
Pitchers Joe Musgrove and Luis Patino are out for the Padres.
Austin Riley, one of eight Atlanta batters with at least three home runs this season is questionable. Catcher Sean Murphy, who hasn’t played since the season opener, is set to begin a rehab assignment in the minor leagues next week for the Braves. Pitchers Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, and Angel Perdomo are on the MLB injured list.
Padres vs Braves Betting Preview
The Braves have struggled to score at times in recent games and that has led to just six of Atlanta’s first 20 home games going over the total. That is one of the reasons that the Atlanta Braves standings have them send to Philadelphia in the National League East.
The Braves are fortunate that Marcell Ozuna is among the MLB league leaders in home runs and is the MLB leader with 41 RBIs while some of his teammates are still looking to get going.
The Padres are fighting to remain in playoff position in the National League despite a 22-24 record. The good news is that the Padres have been a much more productive team on the road than at home so far this season.
When looking at the San Diego Padres schedule, seven of the next 10 games come against teams with winning records.
The Padres have covered against the run line in 15 of their 20 road games compared to a 10-10 record versus the run line at home for the Braves.
Don’t be surprised to see more games involving the Braves land under the total in this series. The total is at 8.5 in the series opener.
For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
