Brewers vs Marlins Preview: Milwaukee Solid on Road

Miami With Worst Record in NL Despite Pitchers' Talents

The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Miami Marlins for three games beginning Monday. It’s the best in the NL Central against the worst in the NL. The Brewers hold a 2.0-game lead over the Chicago Cubs.

Miami is already 19 games behind Philadelphia and 8.5 back in the wild card race. The Brewers vs Marlins preview sees Joe Ross and Ryan Weathers as the scheduled starters on Monday. The Brewers are -135. The total on the game is at eight and juiced to go over (-115).

Milwaukee is No. 4 in hitting in the MLB team stats. The Brewers are tied for fourth in home runs and No. 4 in slugging percentage. Milwaukee is third in scoring at 5.1 runs per game.

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The Brewers haven’t hit left-handers as well this season and will see three of them this series. Milwaukee is 4-3 against LHP and averaged 4.29 runs per game.

The Milwaukee pitching staff has been average, sitting at No. 17 in team ERA. The bullpen has done its job for the most part and hasn’t hurt the team. The Brewers relievers are faring slightly better away from home.

Miami isn’t hitting for average or power and as a result, is No. 24 in scoring with 3.9 runs per game. The offense has come around a bit the past week, but there’s room for more improvement.

The Marlins aren’t pitching well at all. The team ranks No. 29 in ERA and this is a bigger reason than the lack of offense for why the Miami Marlins standings are so poor. Only the White Sox have a worse run differential than the Marlins.

Brewers logo Brewers vs Marlins Marlins logo

Records: Milwaukee Brewers (27-19), Miami Marlins (15-33)

Location: loanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Streaming: BSWI

Monday’s Game

Ross has been a little below average for the Brewers this season and Milwaukee is 3-5 when he starts. He is showing signs of coming around a little bit and Milwaukee has won two of his last three starts. He has better numbers on the road and the Brewers are 2-2 with him on the mound away from home.

Weathers hasn’t pitched too badly for the Marlins. Miami is 3-6 when he starts and owns a 3.81 ERA. His worst start of the season was at home, so those numbers are ugly. Miami has scored one run in each of his last three starts.

The winner of this game will record their first win on a Monday all season. The Brewers are 0-6 on Monday, while the Marlins have gone 0-7. The MLB predictions choose Milwaukee because of the team record difference.

The Marlins get a slight edge on the mound, but the Brewers have a significant advantage at the plate. Neither pitcher has thrown against the other team since 2021, so a slight edge to the starters. It’s easier to make a case for the under here, although even that doesn’t give you plenty of confidence.

Tuesday’s Game

The Brewers vs Marlins preview shows Robert Gasser and Trevor Rogers as the scheduled starters in this one. Gasser has just two starts but was solid in both. He also received 10 or more runs in both starts, so it’s not surprising the Brewers won both MLB games. This will be his first away start.

Rogers has been one of the biggest Miami disappointments of the MLB season. Good things were expected from him and he’s 1-6 with a 5.79 ERA and the Marlins are 1-8 when he starts.

Rogers did get his first win of the year last start. Granted, he hasn’t gotten much run support. Miami has scored two runs or less in seven of his nine starts, but when you’re allowing almost six runs per game, offense isn’t the only reason why you’re losing.

It’s hard to bet Gasser without seeing a road start, but the price may also be too high. Betting Rogers is a tough task right now, but there could be some value on the under here.

Wednesday’s Game

The Brewers vs Marlins preview sees Freddy Peralta and Jesus Luzardo as the starters for the series’ final game. Peralta is having a fair season by his standards, but the Milwaukee Brewers are 7-2 when he starts. His 4.17 ERA is a little higher than we’re used to seeing, but he’s winning and that’s all that matters.

Luzardo is off to a slow start. He’s 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA, but Miami is 2-5 when he starts. His last three starts haven’t been bad, so he could be on the upswing. The Marlins have won two of his last three starts.

Miami is a possibility here if you can get a fair price of +130 or more. Luzardo could be a little undervalued due to his numbers, but he’s showing some positive signs lately that could continue.

For MLB stat leaders, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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