Can Aaron Judge Add Another 50+ Home Run Season?
2024 Home run Season Odds: The Dead Ball Era Will Hurt Our Favorite Sluggers
Some of the MLB’s most exciting home run hitters have slumped through the third of the MLB season. Most teams are nearing 70 games played, and top projected home run hitters such as Austin Riley, Max Muncy, Pete Alonso, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have been practically no-shows.
However, despite a slow start to the regular season, Aaron Judge has continued his unbelievable stretch. He was expected to lead the Majors in home runs this year and hasn’t disappointed.
Let’s take a look at the 2024 home run season odds for the top home run hitters in the MLB heading into mid-June.
Aaron Judge
- 52.5 Home Runs (O/U -110/-110)
Heading into the regular season, Aaron Judge was projected to hit 44.5 home runs with the over juiced to -120.
He finished with 37 home runs last season but only played 106 MLB games for the Yankees. After all, the offense was subpar at best, and Judge needed more protection heading into this year’s season.
Ultimately, the Yankees brought in Juan Soto, and he’s been a huge difference-maker.
With Soto hitting in front of Judge this season, he’s hit a .394 ISO and wOBA of .473 against right-handed pitching. He’s also hit an ISO of .413 with a wOBA of .490 against left-handed pitching. Judge has become almost impossible to get out and currently leads the league in home runs with 24.
The next best is Gunnar Henderson, who doesn’t figure to come close to the home run total, especially since he’s batting lead-off for the Orioles. Henderson will have to find a way to help the Orioles improve in the MLB Wildcard standings because Judge has the Yankees comfortable in the AL East standings.
Shohei Ohtani
- 37.5 Home Runs (O/U -110/-110)
Shohei Ohtani is only ninth in the MLB in home runs. However, he’s still projected to finish as the second-highest home run hitter this season.
Ohtani switched MLB teams from the Los Angeles Angels to the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. He also stepped away from pitching this season. Therefore, many believed he would be able to focus more on hitting and have a career season.
While he’s not having a career season, Ohtani still has 15 home runs with 41 RBIs. He’s added 14 stolen bases and has hit a .310 average with a .947 OPS. It’s still extremely impressive.
Ohtani has helped the Dodgers dominate in the NL West. He’s currently batting behind Mookie Betts and in front of Freddie Freeman, which is the ultimate protection.
However, this number still seems a bit high for someone who hasn’t even reached 20 yet.
Jose Ramirez
- 36.5 Home Runs (O/U +100/-120)
Jose Ramirez told the media he believes he’s better than Barry Bonds. Funny enough, the comparison of statistics actually gives him an argument.
That said, Ramirez has hit 18 home runs with 62 RBIs this season. He’s also hit an OPS of .890 and has an average of .275.
The Guardians aren’t always known for having much power or much offense, for that matter. But Ramirez has stayed hot all year.
He’s never hit 40 home runs in his career, but he’s added at least 36 in two different seasons. Those 36+ home run seasons came in 2018 and 2021. He’s yet to add a 30-home run season since 2021. However, he’s certainly on the path this season when looking at all of the 2024 home run season odds.
Bryce Harper
- 34.5 Home Runs (O/U -110/-110)
Bryce Harper has a home run line of 34.5. He’s already hit 15 and is tied for 9th in the MLB in home runs this season.
Ultimately, Harper has 321 career home runs and four seasons with at least 34. His best season came back in 2015 when Harper launched 42 home runs.
The left-handed slugger has torched righties this season, hitting a .269 ISO and wOBA of .386 with only 20.1% of strikeouts. However, he had been batting behind J.T. Realmuto, who will be sidelined for a while due to an MLB injury.
In addition, Harper hasn’t played more than 141 games in three of his last four seasons. This is why it’s hard to wager on prop bets for Harper before or during the season. We’re not hoping for an injury, but Harper gets injured frequently throughout each season.
Kyle Schwarber
- 33.5 Home Runs (O/U +100, -120)
I couldn’t grab the under for Kyle Schwarber fast enough if I tried.
Schwarber only has 11 home runs this season. He’s also hitting just .235 with an OPS of .748. Yet, despite only 11 home runs, he’s still got a projection of 33.5 home runs.
No, thank you.
Yes, Schwarber hit 46 and 47 in consecutive seasons. But his OPS is way worse than in 2022 and 2023. His slugging percentage has also decreased, and his average figures trend toward the later portion of the season. After all, Schwarber only hit .197 last season.
It’s hard to sustain 45+ home runs with an average of below .200 year after year. Therefore, our favorite free MLB picks include Schwarber to go Under 33.5 home runs.
Mookie Betts
- 29.5 Home Runs (-O/U +100/-120)
Over the last 30 games, Mookie Betts has four home runs in 120 at-bats. He’s also hit a .258 average and a slugging percentage of .417.
While Betts is one of the best hitters in baseball, his metrics don’t really fit his power. Betts has socked at least 35 home runs in back-to-back seasons, but it’s just unlikely to happen again.
He’s only got ten home runs this season, and his slugging percentage isn’t close to what it was over the previous two years.
Maybe it’s truly the dead ball era because balls aren’t flying out like they used to. We’ll see if the 2024 home run season odds update even more when these balls continue to stay in play.
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