Can Reds Return Favor Against D’Backs After Sweep?

Reds vs D'Backs Preview Spotlights Slumping Teams

The Arizona Diamondbacks’ game schedule continues Monday, as the Cincinnati Reds visit to begin a three-game set at Chase Field. Arizona swept three games from Cincinnati just last week, outscoring the Reds 15-9.

Arizona is -1.5 (+140) on the run line and -148 on the moneyline for the series opener, while Cincinnati is +1.5 (-166) and +124. Meanwhile, the projected total is 8.5, with a slight edge to the Over at -115 MLB odds.

Which team has the edge? Read on as we break down the odds in our Reds vs D’Backs preview.

Reds logo Reds vs D’Backs Diamondbacks logo

Day/Time:
Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

Reds vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends

The Cincinnati Reds are 20-20 against the run line, but just 3-8 over their last 11 games. Cincinnati has also been difficult to peg for Over/Under bettors, going 19-19-2.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are 20-21 against the run line. That includes 5-2 over their last seven games. As for Over/Under, Arizona is 17-22-2.

That’s important to remember when assessing the odds in our Reds vs D’Backs preview.

De La Cruz Brilliant But Needs Help

The Reds are quickly trending in the wrong direction. Losers of nine of their last 10 games, the Reds have dropped to 17-23. They are now fourth place in the National League Central, ahead of only St. Louis.

Their run differential is just minus-five, so improvement may be in store. Still, Cincinnati’s recent struggles are concerning, given the heightened expectations. The Reds were projected for 81.5 wins on the heels of last season’s 82-80 finish.

Not to go overlooked is the terrific start by Elly De La Cruz. The 22-year-old shortstop has been among baseball’s hottest hitters, hitting nine homers with 21 RBI and an .884 OPS.

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De La Cruz also leads baseball with 25 stolen bases on 29 attempts, only 10 fewer than he had in 98 games as a rookie. He is now priced as high as +1200 to win NL MVP, putting him among the favorites.

Unfortunately, many others in Cincinnati’s lineup have failed to carry their weight. The Reds rank 29th in team average (.215), 20th in home runs (38), and 16th in runs scored (171).

They have been particularly poor of late, scoring just 22 runs over their last 10 MLB games. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing our Reds vs D’Backs preview odds.

As such, Cincinnati’s odds of winning the NL Central have fallen to +1100. The Reds are also only +5500 to win the NL pennant.

Carroll Slow to Heat Up

Like Cincinnati, Arizona has struggled to match growing expectations. Coming off last season’s surprising World Series run, the Diamondbacks are 7.5 games out of first place at 19-22.

Arizona has played better of late (5-2 over last seven games), but consistency is still lacking from an MLB team that many forecasted to take a big leap in 2024. For perspective, the Diamondbacks were projected for 84.5 wins.

Fortunately for the Diamondbacks, the expanded MLB playoff allows teams more room for error. Still, they would be wise to turn things around sooner than later. Oddsmakers remain bullish, pricing the Diamondbacks +2200 to win the NL. Only five clubs have better odds.

Among Arizona’s biggest issues is Corbin Carroll’s start. The 23-year-old outfielder has struggled mightily, bearing no resemblance to his MLB NL Rookie of the Year campaign. He is batting .201 with just two home runs and 14 RBI.

Hoping to alleviate some pressure on Carroll, manager Torey Lovullo recently dropped him to seventh in the batting order. Carroll had hit leadoff or second in every start prior to that.

The Diamondbacks have done relatively well otherwise, ranking third in the majors in runs scored (205) and 10th in team average (.246). Their pitching has struggled comparatively speaking, ranking 20th in ERA (4.23).

Series Probables

⚾ Game 1 ⚾

  • Monday, 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Graham Ashcraft vs Jordan Montgomery

These pitchers squared off just five days earlier on the MLB schedule in a 4-3 Arizona win. Montgomery went seven innings and allowed just two runs to pick up the win, improving to 2-2 as a Diamondback.

The veteran left-hander has made four appearances after signing a one-year, $25 million contract late in spring training.

Ashcraft, meanwhile, gave up three runs over five innings against Arizona. He is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA on the season.

⚾ Game 2 ⚾

  • Tuesday, 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Hunter Greene vs Slade Cecconi

The flamethrowing Greene has fared well of late, allowing just three runs over his last 17.2 innings. Walks have been an issue (21 in 45.1 innings), but Greene remains an elite swing-and-miss pitcher with 53 strikeouts.

Greene faced Cecconi last Thursday, allowing three runs over five innings in a 5-4 loss.

Cecconi has a 4.15 ERA in four appearances. He held Arizona to one run over 5.1 innings.

⚾ Game 3 ⚾

  • Wednesday, 3:40 p.m. ET
  • Andrew Abbott vs Brandon Pfaadt

Abbott has strong numbers (3.35 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but homers have been an issue. The 24-year-old left-hander has allowed eight in 43 innings, tied for third most in MLB.

The Diamondbacks will counter with Pfaadt, who is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. He has gone six innings in three straight starts and has 42 strikeouts in 47 innings.

For MLB prospect rankings, odds analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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